1 Official Statistics in Times of Crisis Walter Radermacher Eurostat

Walter Radermacher 2 Role and objectives of official statistics Sufficient advanced warning: lessons to be learnt Monitoring of the impacts on economy, society and environment Monitoring of political responses and their impacts Foresee and mitigate a possible crisis and support the treatment of damages by means of high quality statistical information and excellent communication

Walter Radermacher 3 Complex reality: theory, data, policy Behind the crisis: –Globalised information society: A conflict between over-information and under-capacities => misuse of information, wrong expectations, missing awareness for risks/fuzzyness –Reductionism in economic theory (micro based, linear, uncritical believe in availability of data, theory not falsifiable ) –A “golden veal” in statistics: coherence + speed (fitness for purpose of scientific and political users) A need for: –Globalised macroeconomic theory –More reliability, multidimensional figures (incoherence!), structural information, de-acceleration, quality checks –Comparability of statistical products and services on a global level as well as for large geopolitical zones –Corporate communication of complexity

Walter Radermacher 4 Special questions Independence of statistics Differentials between financial sphere and “real economy” –Treatment of quality in price and volume measures –Integration of financial services within the production boundary Off-balance sheet items Valuation –“Market Price” and “Fair Value” principles –Stocks vs. flows

Walter Radermacher 5 Monitoring of the impacts New pressures vs. old constraints –Critical resource situation in statistical services (particularly in their laboratories and communication branches) – “More speed!” = more modelling = less quality Multidimensional statistical information –Non-monetary indicators, satellite accounts –Focussed presentation of relevant indicators –A modern approach to communication (interactive tools, WEB2.0 services, open platforms, …), –Courageous explanation of shortcomings, “granulation”, … –International comparability of communication –An aggregate of wealth / balance sheet accounts?

Walter Radermacher 6 Further needs to adjust the revision of the SNA? AEG Nov 2008: –In principle “no”; 2008 SNA gives comprehensive guidance –Only some minor clarifications needed Purchases of governments of “toxic assets” Nationalisation of a bank by government Injections of funds by means of preference shares Government guarantees in return to a fee High Level Forum Nov 2008: choice between imputed vs. observable transactions!! Private accounting principles!!

Walter Radermacher 7 GDP and beyond: satellite accounting Sustainable (constraints) development (objective) with three pillars (economic, social and environmental aspects): –SNA = central framework –Interconnected satellite accounts –Resource allocation for both types of domains –Indicators, accounting and basic information with complementary characteristics and quality profiles Agreement on indicator set, e.g. starting with –Growth of quarterly GDP, Inflation –Interest rates –Trade balance of goods and services –General Government: deficit + debt + follow-up of rescue money –Short term and structural business statistics, industrial production index, orders in strategic industries (cars, construction) in months –Prices of strategic goods (energy, raw materials) –Social statistics: unemployment rates, index of poverty

Walter Radermacher 8 Proposal for the next steps Now: Exchange of information about ongoing work: extend the format and platform of the informal conference, e.g. –Action plan of the European Statistical System (at &_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL#5) ) &_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL#5) –CMFB analysis Short term: Extend the reflections of the High Level Group Medium term: a group should ensure the link between private and national accounting Long-term: improve cooperation between NSIs on a global level, world national accounts and accounts for large geopolitical zones

9 Thanks for your attention