NOAA Hurricane Isabel Assessment John Sokich/Paul Scholz NWS/NOS December 16, 2004 Hurricane Isabel Assessment

2 Outline Team Charge NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel Assessment Recommendations

3 Team Charge Produce a “NOAA-wide” assessment report on the performance of NOAA during Hurricane Isabel –Facts, performance, best practices, recommendations Team Members –John Sokich NWS (co-lead) –Paul Scholz NOS (co-lead) –George Serafino NESDIS –Mark Powell OAR –Steve Kozak NMAO –Anne Lange NMFS

4 Issue Assess NOAA performance during and after Hurricane Isabel –Increase awareness and visibility of NOAA efforts Involves all NOAA Line Offices (except PPI) Improve dialogue across NOAA Produce an assessment for NOAA Executive Management

5 NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel View from Outside NOAA - Positives –NOAA support was excellent –Forecast and warning services lauded by emergency management community –Internet access to information was fast –Support to FEMA by NOS and NWS Forecasts warnings Graphical / GIS support to FEMA Region IV to assist in pre- positioning recovery assets Information to assist damage assessment recovery (e.g., hi-res digital imagery of coastline) –NMFS expedited approval of critical permits to allow dredging to rebuild destroyed roads –NMFS response to impacted fishing industries

6 NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel View Outside NOAA - Negatives –Could do better with storm surge predictions (Northern Chesapeake Bay and tributaries) –Could do better communicating potential impacts “Didn’t know it was going to be as bad as it was” Power outages Surge flooding –“One-stop shopping” on the Internet

7 NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel View Within NOAA - Positives –Services were excellent (NWS, NESDIS, NOS, NMFS) –Communication between NESDIS and NWS was good –Communication between local NWS forecast offices and local NOAA assets was good (e.g., let them know how bad it was going to be) –NMAO support for NOAA operational and research efforts –NMAO support for NOS post-storm digital imagery –Forecast accuracy exceptional, compared to average track predictability –Research opportunity and support was excellent

8 NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel View Within NOAA – Negatives –NWS and NOS storm surge and modeling efforts uncoordinated –NOS support for FEMA Region IV not widely known to NOAA –NESDIS does not have backup GOES processing capability and its World Weather Building site is a single point of failure for producing processed satellite data –NMAO aircraft support for NOAA research activities encountered safety problem –Transition of Research to Operations –Communication between Line Offices not as effective as it needs to be

9 NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel View Within NOAA – Negatives (cont’d) –Communication with non-NOAA users of NOAA products and services was not as effective as it needs to be –Internal and external confusion over water levels –Many NOAA ASOS sites, tide gages, and buoys failed during Isabel

10 Assessment Recommendations Storm surge –Develop a cross-NOAA team to address corporate NOAA effort in storm surge User needs Storm tide Leverage NOAA storm surge assets Observations –NOAA Line Offices should collaborate on location and placement of additional and replacement tide gage stations –Provide backup power to “key” ASOS, tide gages, and buoys

11 Assessment Recommendations Internet –Do not display non-NOAA or experimental data/forecasts on NOAA websites without proper disclaimers –Use commercial Web service (outsourcing) to meet surge demand events (e.g., landfalling hurricanes, major winter storms) –Develop a single, easily navigable, storm/event website to access storm- related NOAA information Communication and outreach –Develop material and simple inventory of existing NOAA products and services for outreach to users –Use all available NOAA and NOAA family resources (e.g., Warning Coordination Meteorologists, Coastal Zone Managers, Sea Grant partners, etc.,) to communicate and educate users Develop overall NOAA plan to approach response corporately

12 Backup Examples

13 Observed Water Level and Wind Product

14 Hurricane Isabel Track and Warning

15 SLOSH Forecast Issued (forecast winds)

16 SLOSH ‘Hindcast’ (observed winds)

17 High-Resolution Damage Assessment

18 Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV

19 Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV

20 Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV

21 Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV

22 Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV