Rural Outlook Conference US and Oklahoma Economic Outlook Presentation October 2015.

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Presentation transcript:

Rural Outlook Conference US and Oklahoma Economic Outlook Presentation October 2015

Rural Outlook Presentation October 2015 Agenda Status of the US Economy –Storyline Retrospective –Major Indicators Monetary Policy –Fed’s Balance Sheet –Money Supply Growth Special Topics –Status of the Oklahoma Economy Employment Trends—State and Regional Unemployment –Price of Crude Oil & Employment Implications

Storyline and Continuing Saga 19 th Year and Counting

First Chapters of Story Irrational Exuberance Stock Market Bubble/Bust Floods of Liquidity Promoting Speculation and Low Rates Rise of the Housing Bubble Recession of 2001

Greenspan “Put”: Expand the Money Supply in the Face of any Financial Trauma 1987 Stock Market Crash –Solution—Add liquidity 1990 Gulf War –Solution—Add liquidity Mexican Financial Crisis –Solution—Add liquidity Asian/Russian Financial Crisis –Solution—Add liquidity Long-Term Capital Market Collapse –Solution—Add liquidity Y2K Problems –Solution—Add liquidity Stock Market Collapse –Solution—Add liquidity 2001 Recession –Solution—Add liquidity 9/11 Attack –Solution—Add liquidity Has Greenspan created MORAL HAZARDS?

Next Chapters of Story Subprime Mortgage Crisis Financial Contagion Recession of Fiscal & Monetary Stimulus Housing Market Collapse Muted Economic Recovery

The Continuing 19-Year Saga Credit Market Deleveraging Sovereign Debt Crises Currency Devaluations Global Political Discord Quantitative Easing Forever Demographic and Other Cliffs Continuing Slow Growth

Status of the National Economic Recovery “Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake financial stability, fake jobs, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth.” Paul Singer, Eliott Management, $8.6B AUM Paul Singer, Eliott Management, $8.6B AUM

Real Annualized GDP Growth Recent Estimates place Q at a 1.6% gain

Industrial Production

Retail Sales

Year-over-Year Change in U.S. Non-Ag Employment

Purchasing Mgrs Index and Fed Manufacturing Surveys Recent Estimates place Q at a 1.6% gain

Case Shiller Housing Price Indices

Housing Starts

Inflation

Monetary Policy Federal Reserve gone wild?

Fed’s Magical Balance Sheet

Federal Reserve’s Asset Holdings

Stock Market and Member Bank Reserves

Bank Reserve Balances Deposited at the Fed

U.S. Government Budget Balances

Status of the Oklahoma Economy

OKC, Tulsa, BOS Employment Trends

US and Oklahoma Employment Growth

Comparative State Unemployment Rates

Price of Oil Houston, we have a problem!

WTI: What Happened in the 1980’s

WTI Historic

Historic U.S. Oil Production

US Historic Rig Count

Oil v. Natural Gas Rig Count

Oil Prices and Rig Counts

OK Direct Mining Sector Employment

OK Regional Direct Mining Sector Employment

That’s all, folks