Ocean Model Development (and relation to ice shelves) IPCC summarized top two impacts of physical climate change as (a) air temperature, and (b) sea level.

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Presentation transcript:

Ocean Model Development (and relation to ice shelves) IPCC summarized top two impacts of physical climate change as (a) air temperature, and (b) sea level Without any physical model of sea level, IPCC reported a seal level projection Ocean models could be argued to be relevant to sea level change projections Ocean modeling has no meaningful plan to address one of IPCC two main’s concerns

Relevance of Ice-Shelf Ocean Interaction Sea Level Rise (SLR) projection 2100 Changes in SL will have some regional character: past -> ‘fingerprints’ polar wandering self gravity ocean dynamic height Contributions are Steric and Eustatic

Eustatic Component – Role of the Ice Sheets Main concern is marine portions of Greenland and Antarctica

What’s happening in ice shelf – ocean research Observational programs among the harshest /difficult environments to sample (ocean beneath kms of ice) Theoretical developments among the most challenging fluid dynamical behaviors (calving) Modeling Initiatives requires major reworking of ocean codes (kms of surface pressure, grounding line migration)

Ice Processes

Ocean Processes – Water Mass Transformation

Ocean Processes – Other Considerations

What have we observed in the last decade or so? Any big changes? Yes! The perimeter of the ice sheets, where they are floating, and where there exists warm ocean waters is undergoing dramatic change.

Greenland Change: Jakobshavn Isbrae *

Why Jakobshavn Isbrae?

Antarctica Change: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) *

Why Pine Island Glacier?

Some Recent Ocean Observations: Depths and Temperatures at Jakobshavn, August 2009

Some Future Ocean Observations: Greenland – Modest Ice Tongues Jakobshavn, Helheim (From Boat or Helicopter: CTD, XCTD, Glider, AUV) Antarctica – Massive Ice Shelves PIG, WISSARDS (From Icebreaker or Drilling: Profiling CTD, AUV)

… and now on to ice-shelf – ocean interaction theory and model(l)ing …