Climate change and climate engineering – comparing the risks for violent conflict Michael Brzoska 18. August 2014

Content Climate change violent conflict risks Theory Empirical evidence Particular vulnerabilities Climate engineering violent conflict risks – Solar radiation management Carbon reduction management Local precipitation management Summary By type of conflict By level of conflict

Climate change conflict risks – Theory -Mulitple possible channels, but also many buffers - Climate change as an additional stressor - Importance of institutions (governance, conflict management) - Relationship between extent of climate change and likelihood of violent conflict (degree of additional stress; viability of institutions)

Limited, controversial, evidence of statistical correlation between changes in climate change indicators and incidences of violence - Stronger, but also controversial for changes in precipitation than temperature (levels, variation) - Stronger, but less researched, for lower levels of violence (personal, communal violence) than for higher levels of violence (civil wars, international wars) - Stronger, but not uniform, evidence, for historical than current periods Climate change conflict risks – Empirical evidence

Climate change risks for violent conflict - Particular vulnerabilities -Hot spots - large climate change-related environmental effects (precipitation patterns, extreme weather events) - low income - high dependence on agriculture - weak institutions - High-tension regions - high level of conflict (ethnic, resource use) - weak/overwhelmed institutions - perception of climate change as conflict driver - Securitization/militarization of climate change - classifiction of effects of climate change as threat (migration, access to resources; responsibilities, distribution of costs) - focus of response on violent/military means

Climate engineering conflict risks – Global solar radiation management Militarized conflict over governance issues Lack of agreement/coordination over level of temperature decision-making unilateral action cost allocation focus of response on violent/military means Local and regional side-effects of climate engineering Differential effects of srm in high-tension regions perception of differential effects of climate engineering as conflict driver high level of conflict (ethnic, resource use) weak/overwhelmed institutions high level of conflict (ethnic, resource use)

Climate engineering – Carbon reduction management Localized measures with global effects but local/regional side-effects Enhanced weathering Biochar Afforestation Ocean fertilization CCS

Militarized conflict over governance issues Conflict over side-effects of climate engineering measures in high-tension regions Effects of crm measures dependent on  Consequences of resource use (e.g. land for afforestation)  Degree of environmental degradation (e.g. ocean fertilization)  High level of conflict (ethnic, resource use)  Weak/overwhelmed institutions  Perception of crm as conflict driver Climate engineering conflict risks – Carbon reduction management

Climate engineering conflict risks – Local precipiation management Potential for direct military misuse Local and regional effects Differential effects of precipitation management in high-tension regions Deliberate use to the advantage of groups in conflict Perception of differential effects of climate engineering as conflict driver High level of conflict (ethnic, resource use)

Hot spots /localized measures Differential side- effects in high- tension regions Securitization/ Governance Climate change Solar radiation management ++++ Carbon reduction management +(++) Dependent on resource use, environmental degradation ++ Local precipitation management Climate engineering violent conflict risks – summary by type of conflict

Climate change Solar Radiation management Carbon reduction management Local precipitation management Local levelLikelyLess likelyPossible Civil warsPossibleLess likelyPossible Interstate war Less likelyPossible Climate engineering violent conflict risks – Summary by level of conflict