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2 2 Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and Providers Regional Ecosystem Approaches to Urban Environmental Hazard Management September 21, 2004 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service September 21, 2004 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service

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4 4 Communicating Environmental Services NOAA NWS Overview Teamwork NWS Products and Service Accurate Communication NOAA NWS Overview Teamwork NWS Products and Service Accurate Communication

5 5 NWS Mission Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy. Data and products are used by other government agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community. Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy. Data and products are used by other government agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

6 6 NOAA Vision To move NOAA into the 21st Century scientifically and operationally, in the same interrelated manner as the environment that we observe and forecast, while recognizing the link between our global economy and our planet’s ecology.

7 7 TeamworkTeamwork Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received!

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9 9 TeamworkTeamwork 751 Communities 47 States

10 StormReady Success Story Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02 Forecast & Detection Warning Dissemination Response

11 Teamwork National Research Council’s Report Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well Recommendations include: –Congressional Mandate – protect life and property –Public/Private Partnership Process –Data and Products in standardized format –New/Discontinue Products –Communicate Uncertainty Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well Recommendations include: –Congressional Mandate – protect life and property –Public/Private Partnership Process –Data and Products in standardized format –New/Discontinue Products –Communicate Uncertainty

12 Seamless Suite of Products Minutes Hours Days 6 – 10 Days 8 – 14 Days Months Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty Protection of Life & Property Protection of Life & Property HydropowerHydropowerRecreationRecreationEcosystemEcosystem State/LocalPlanningState/LocalPlanningEnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgricultureReservoirControlReservoirControl HealthHealth Space Operations TransportationTransportation Fire Weather EnergyEnergy OutlooksGuidance Threats Assessments ForecastsWatches Warnings & Alert Coordination OutlooksGuidance Threats Assessments ForecastsWatches Warnings & Alert Coordination Forecast Lead Time

13 Seamless Suite of Products National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Focuses NWS Meteorologist on MeteorologyFocuses NWS Meteorologist on Meteorology Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own ApplicationAllows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own Application Timeframe: FY Timeframe: FY Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Complete Seamless 4-D Digital ObservationsObservations AnalysesAnalyses ForecastsForecasts Uncertainty InformationUncertainty Information Outlooks, Watches, WarningsOutlooks, Watches, Warnings Gridded Forecast Database TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

14 Accurate Communication NOAA NWS END USERS PARTNERS Need accurate, timely, easily communicated, and understandable products!

15 New Products The average person only sees the tip of the iceberg National Centers for Environmental Prediction Model Simulations Climate & Seasonal Outlooks Aviation & Marine Forecasts Storm & Tornado Prediction Hurricane Tracks National Centers for Environmental Prediction Model Simulations Climate & Seasonal Outlooks Aviation & Marine Forecasts Storm & Tornado Prediction Hurricane Tracks Private Weather Companies 122 Weather Forecast Offices Issue Local Forecasts & Warnings Observations Radar Network, Satellites, Weather Balloons, Ground-level observations at airports, Aircraft, Lightning Network, Data Buoys, Stream Gauge Network, 11,000 Volunteer daily-data collectors, Thousands of Volunteer storm spotters Observations Radar Network, Satellites, Weather Balloons, Ground-level observations at airports, Aircraft, Lightning Network, Data Buoys, Stream Gauge Network, 11,000 Volunteer daily-data collectors, Thousands of Volunteer storm spotters Internet Radio TV River Forecasts Hydropower, Flood warnings Irrigation, River Navigation River Forecasts Hydropower, Flood warnings Irrigation, River Navigation NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

16 Communicating Threats Severe Weather Polygon Eliminates False Alarm Area

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18 Communicating Threats Hurricanes

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20 Communicating Threats Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

21 Communicating Threats Urban Flooding - Gaston August 30, 2004

22 Communicating Threats Indices Today –Wind Chill Index –Heat Health Index Tomorrow –Tornado F-scale Revision –Winter Storm Index? Today –Wind Chill Index –Heat Health Index Tomorrow –Tornado F-scale Revision –Winter Storm Index?

23 Awareness Campaigns

24 SummarySummary Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received! Users need accurate, timely, easily communicated, and understandable information! Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received! Users need accurate, timely, easily communicated, and understandable information!