Public Opinion and Political Behaviors Unit IIB Public Opinion

n The attitudes, perceptions, and viewpoints individuals hold about government and politics n Influenced by political culture and political socialization n Skewed by limited political education and efficacy n Shaped by government, interest groups, and mass media

Measurement of Public Opinion Development of Polls n Straw Polls –Asked same question to large number of people –Unreliable due to no cross-section of general population n George Gallup’s Ideas –Sampling F Represent general population and randomized –Valid questions F Clear, fair, unbiased, not misleading –Control of poll F Tone of question, basic knowledge of issues –Analysis F Provide sampling errors, show time and place of poll n Exit Polls –Public opinion surveys to determine electoral winners n Push Polls –Misleading poll questions to push a certain choice/candidate/issue

Measuring Public Opinion n Public opinion polls are most reliable measurement of public opinion n Measured Qualities –Intensity of beliefs –Real wants and needs –Constant or changing opinions –Consensus or polarized over issues n Reliable? –Who conducts the poll? –What is the sample size? Large sample size? Small sample size? –Population sample? Randomized sample? Representative sample? –Time of poll? Relevant to current issues? –Methodology? Consistent measures? –Sampling error? Low margin of error? Within -/+ 3%? –Clarity of questions? Unbiased? Unambiguous?

Sample Poll Examples n Do you favor or oppose taxes? n Do you favor or oppose taxes as a means to national security? n Do you favor or oppose Senator Smith, who voted to raise taxes last session? n Do you favor or oppose a state income tax of 7%?

Political Trust n Government is a “necessary evil” n Major shifts in public opinion with major events –Pearl Harbor –Vietnam –9/11 –Hurricane Katrina –Great Recession

Confidence in Institutions

Political Ideologies n A consistent set of political beliefs n Develop based on economic, political, and social issues n Political ideologies may change over time

Political Ideologies n Radical –Rapid fundamental changes; extreme methods such as revolution n Liberal –Supports political and social reforms; government regulations; minority support; equality n Moderate –More tolerant; shares liberal and conservative beliefs n Conservative –Support social and economic status quo; reluctant for change, and only gradual change; less government; liberty n Reactionary –Return to previous or historical system; extreme methods for accomplishment

On American Issues ISSUELIBERALCONSERVATIVE Scope of GovernmentLarge government to enforce liberties and equality Limited government; states’ rights TaxesIncrease for businesses and upper-classTax cuts for businesses and all classes Government SpendingIncrease to stimulate economyDecrease to avoid debt; austerity policies Defense Spending and MilitaryDecrease bureaucracy and spendingIncrease for national security Affirmative ActionSupport and expandReduce or eliminate; “reverse racism” AbortionPro-choice; include as part of health carePro-life; allowed only in cases of rape, incest, health of mother EconomyIncreased regulation; support Federal Reserve Free enterprise and free market economy Global WarmingMan-made consequenceNatural global cycle Same-Sex MarriageSupport equality of marriageMarriage between a man and woman; states decide Global AffairsSupport the United NationsAmerican exceptionalism EnergyAlternative and cleaner resourcesSubsidies for natural gas, oil, coal Social SecurityPreserve the safety netNeeds reform; privatization Health CareGovernment-controlled low-cost care; single- payer option Free market and private-run health care Death PenaltyInhumaneCrime deterrent ImmigrationEasier path to citizenship; multiculturalSecure the borders; English at official language Prayer in SchoolsViolates separation of church and state; secular government Official practice; teach intelligent design Global MarketFair tradeFree trade 2 nd Amendment (Right to bear arms)Gun controlGun rights EqualityFair chanceEqual opportunity

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