© 2010 The Actuarial Profession Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Life conference and exhibition 2010 Richard Green, Dick Rae, Giles Woodruff of the With-profits Funds’ Investment Strategies Working Party With-profits funds’ investment strategies 7-9 November 2010
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 1 Today’s presentation Format Introduction and backgroundDick Rae What PPFMs tell us about current practiceGiles Woodruff Risk management Richard Green –3 approaches and how they compare Future trends?Dick Rae Open discussionYou! © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 2 Questions and comments sought from you Expressions of individual views by members of The Actuarial Profession and its staff are encouraged. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenters. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession What is best practice? What can be done better? What can be done differently?
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 3 The with-profits funds’ investment strategies working party Aim Review modern management strategies –Principally through PPFM but also other public material Identify different approaches to managing risk –Within asset share and/or the estate Investigate trends –Past, present and prospective. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 4 The with-profits funds’ investment strategies working party Members Dick Rae (chairman) Gerry Gallagher Richard Green Helen Jones Matt Lee Jonathan Pears Giles Woodruff © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 5 What has shaped the current investment strategies adopted by with-profits funds? Bear market 2000 – 2003 Realistic balance sheet Falls in new business Demutualisation Credit crunch © 2010 The Actuarial Profession FTSE 100 Total Return FTSE 100 Total Return (rebased)
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 6 Today’s presentation Format Introduction and backgroundDick Rae What PPFMs tell us about current practiceGiles Woodruff Risk management Richard Green –3 approaches and how they compare Future trends?Dick Rae Open discussionYou! © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 7 Review of PPFM documents Funds surveyed 18 PPFM documents produced by 14 companies covering 22 funds, including: –the ten largest funds –four funds in three mutuals –a mixture of funds (open and closed). 7 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Not a comprehensive survey
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 8 Typical overall objective of investment policy © 2010 The Actuarial Profession To maximise returns subject to an acceptable level of risk and the need to protect solvency and meet capital requirements* (* allowing for any capital available outside the fund )
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 9 Common investment pools within a with-profits fund © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Assets backing cost of cash guarantees Assets backing cost of GAOs Other assets Asset share pool #1 Asset share pool #N Hypothecation of assets (if N > 1) leads to different investment mixes for each pool Potential hedging Assets backing non-profit liabilities Usually cash and fixed interest assets
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 10 Factors affecting decision whether to hypothecate © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Impact on solvency Heterogeneity of policies Expectations of policyholders Legal constraints Practicalities
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 11 A spectrum of approaches Factors affecting decision whether to hypothecate © 2010 The Actuarial Profession A spectrum of approaches (Currently) no hypothecation Assets hypothecated for some product groups Highly granular hypothecation Impact on solvency Heterogeneity of policies Expectations of policyholders Legal constraints Practicalities Most common approach
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 12 Factors affecting asset allocation within an asset share pool (examples) © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Tactical considerations Features of policies Fund level considerations TCF Relative attractiveness of each asset class Volatility of each asset class Nature, currency and term of liabilities Any special product features Current and projected solvency Capacity of fund to withstand shock Representations to policyholders Requirements of a court scheme or legislation
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 13 Equity (and property) backing ratio Key drivers for asset allocation within an asset share pool © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Moneyness of cash guarantees Duration of fixed interest securities Outstanding duration to the date at which any guarantee applies
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 14 Key drivers for asset allocation within an asset share pool Equity (and property) backing ratio Moneyness of cash guarantees Duration of fixed interest securities Outstanding duration to the date at which any guarantee applies Outstanding duration to the date at which benefits are expected to be payable © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 15 Assets backing GAOs © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Common hedges involve fixed interest securities, interest rate swaps and interest rate swaptions One fund credits asset shares with the return on a notional fixed interest portfolio with a shorter duration than the duration of the actual fixed interest assets.
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 16 Assets backing cash guarantees Most funds hedge cash guarantees (or at least allocate less risky assets to back these guarantees) Common hedges involve cash, fixed interest securities and: –put options; and/or –negative holdings in various asset classes. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 17 Balance of the fund Potential use of the estate Risk buffer Source of liquidity Enables smoothing Provides finance (e.g. new business, acquisitions, projects) Provides capital support Distributed to policyholders. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Cash and fixed interest securities Similar investment mix to asset shares
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 18 Miscellaneous issues Capital requirements Pension schemes Disclosure of approach. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 19 Today’s presentation Format Introduction and backgroundDick Rae What PPFMs tell us about current practiceGiles Woodruff Risk management Richard Green –3 approaches and how they compare Future trends?Dick Rae Open discussionYou! © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 20 Risk Management Different risk management approaches Impact on policyholder payouts Is there an optimal approach? © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 21 Approaches to Risk Management Hedging in Estate Static EBR Hedging in Asset Share Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) Theoretical EBR © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 22 Model Five year WP bond Premium £1,000 Prospective guarantee at fifth anniversary of £1,000 “Realistic” projections 3% equity risk premium Market-consistent valuations Not a current calibration. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 23 Approaches to Risk Management Hedging in Estate Static EBR Hedging in Asset Share Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) Theoretical EBR © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 24 Initial investment Static EBR (Continuously rebalanced) AS (Static EBR) Initial charge Assets backing CoG provided by initial charge CoG AS With-Profit Liability © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 25 Policyholder payout – Static EBR © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 26 Approaches to Risk Management Hedging in Estate Static EBR Hedging in Asset Share Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) Theoretical EBR © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 27 Asset Share Matching FI Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) “Cushion” Risky Assets EBR = M x Cushion FI Matching FI © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 28 Policyholder payout - CPPI 28 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 29 Approaches to Risk Management Hedging in Estate Static EBR Hedging in Asset Share Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) Theoretical EBR © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 30 Asset Share Matching FI Theoretical EBR (tEBR) Call options FI Matching FI Risky Assets EBR =Option Delta © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 31 Policyholder payout - tEBR © 2010 The Actuarial Profession tEBR approach static equity holding (floating not static EBR) in AS + guarantee charge
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 32 Preferred approach Approaches discussed so far illustrate types of approach that could be used to manage risk Now consider what policyholders might want Preferred approach depends on investor’s risk preferences May not be what life office provides! © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 33 Policyholder payout © 2010 The Actuarial Profession More cautious investor
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 34 Policyholder payout More cautious investor More adventurous investor Each payout has the same cost (£1,000) Each payout optimal for a different policyholder. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 35 Preferred approach Assuming a complete market, possible to derive dynamic asset allocation strategy which generates any preferred payout Identification of preferred payout not straightforward Heterogeneity Use of dynamic asset allocation rather than dynamic charge? © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Sub-optimality – hypothecation?
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 36 Conclusions Two types of approach –Hedging in estate –Hedging in asset shares Can theoretically give similar outcomes Optimal strategy –depends on policyholder preferences –may not be easily identified –require hypothecation, hedging in AS. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 37 Today’s presentation Format Introduction and backgroundDick Rae What PPFMs tell us about current practiceGiles Woodruff Risk management Richard Green –3 approaches and how they compare Future trends?Dick Rae Open discussionYou! © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 38 Future trends Some ideas around management of –Credit risk –Equity volatility. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 39 Credit risk Within asset share Within the estate Frees assets Backing non-profit annuities in payment. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 40 Credit risk Solvency II Risk Charges as Multiples of RCM Risk Charges Source: HSBC analysis © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 41 Managing credit risk Within asset share Affects cost of guarantees Options Hold a negative position within the Estate Reduce credit risk –Shorten credit duration (and use swaps to manage interest rate risk) –Look for alternative sources of yield pick-up. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 42 Solvency II Multi-Assets Risk/Return Perspective Source: iBoxx and HSBC analysis, 21 st October 2010
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 43 Equity volatility - why not use management actions? When market volatility is greater than target volatility reduce proportion in equities to: Target volatility % Observed volatility % with the balance invested in cash © 2010 The Actuarial Profession E.g. Allocation within risky assets Vol >= target vol Vol =200% target vol
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 44 An example of a controlled equity strategy © 2010 The Actuarial Profession Observed volatility max of: 20 day realised vol. 130 day realised vol. Proportion invested in equities: 12% Observed volatility % Balance invested in cash Volatility of strategy: 2007 to date
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 45 Impact on returns vs. volatility
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 46 Comparison of a controlled volatility strategy against the FTSE 100 (total return) © 2010 The Actuarial Profession FTSE 100 Total Return
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 47 Today’s presentation Format Introduction and backgroundDick Rae What PPFMs tell us about current practiceGiles Woodruff Risk management Richard Green –3 approaches and how they compare Future trends?Dick Rae Open discussionYou! © 2010 The Actuarial Profession
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only 48 Questions and comments sought from you Expressions of individual views by members of The Actuarial Profession and its staff are encouraged. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenters. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession What is best practice? What can be done better? What can be done differently?