1. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Life conference and exhibition 2011 How to hedge the risk-free rate under Solvency II 20-22 November 2011

2. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Introduction to working party 2 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Alex Probyn Angelina Lai David Johnson Remit QIS5 specifications Not annuity focused Theory and practicalities Working party members Oliver Firth Paul Collins Ross Evans The views expressed are collective views of the working party They do not reflect the view of any individual member, nor their employer, nor the Institute of Actuaries Derek McLean Eamonn Phelan Emily Penn

3. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Why hedge the risk-free rate?

4. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Why hedge the risk-free rate? 4 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk

5. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Hedging the basic risk-free rate

6. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Solvency II basic risk-free rate 6 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Extrapolated curve Market spot rates Cut-off point for market data (“LLP”)

7. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Risk-free rate prior to the “last liquid point” 7 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Swap curve minus 10bps

8. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Muddying the water – Government bonds 8 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk 30yr Gilt 30yr Swap History of 30yr Gilt yield and 30yr Swap rate

9. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Volatility through the balance sheet 9 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk LONG 30yr Gilt & SHORT 30yr Swap Tracking the Net Asset position over time

10. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Even more volatility for non-UK 10 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Spread over swaps on 10yr EU government bonds Source: RBS, Bloomberg -ve for Solv II bal sheet

11. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Risk-free rate beyond the “last liquid point” 11 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Extrapolated from market curve “Smith-Wilson” technique Macroeconomic approach –Ultimate long-term forward rate = 4.2% –Converges by 90yrs

12. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only What that looks like in practice 12 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Extrapolated curve Market spot rates Forward rates converge to “UFR” Cut-off point for market data (“LLP”) Point of UFR convergence

13. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Hedging implications 13 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Simple example Bullet 50yr liability EUR 10m

14. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Market consistent basis 14 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Swap notional

15. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Slope of market curve prior to cut-off point (1) 15 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk cut-off point 25yr Market rate DOWN 50yr S-W discount rate UP Solvency II discount curve

16. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Slope of market curve prior to cut-off point (2) 16 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk cut-off point 50yr S-W discount rate DOWN 30yr Market rate DOWN Solvency II discount curve

17. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Solvency II hedge 17 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Swap notional

18. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only In extremis … 18 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk What happens if we converge to the UFR immediately?

19. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Hedge assuming immediate convergence to UFR 19 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Swap notional

20. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Key observations 20 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Current framework Liability value in no way related to 50yr market swap rate Extrapolation sensitive to slope of curve preceding cut-off point Can lead to unusual looking hedges Potential for change? Industry lobbying to shorten convergence period –Less exposure to slope Bayesian approach?

21. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Hedging the liquidity premium

22. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Click to add Side-Bar text Spread = credit risk premium + liquidity premium Methods: Negative basis Covered bonds Structural models Transition matrix What is a liquidity premium?

23. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Click to add Side-Bar text Solvency I –Transition matrix approach ICA –Range of methods including structural methods but based on actual portfolio Pricing –Passed on to policyholders MCEV –Reference rate should be the swap yield curve with the inclusion of a liquidity premium, where appropriate How are LPs currently used

24. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Click to add Side-Bar text Tracking the liquidity premium

25. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Click to add Side-Bar text QIS 5 = 50% (iBoxx spread – 40bps) 3 liability buckets: 100%, 75%, 50% Capital SCR includes illiquidity premium risk module -50% correlation with spread risk module Solvency II and LP QIS 5 Liquidity premium CurrencyCut off31 Dec 0931 Dec 10 GBP30 yrs82 bps89 bps EUR15 yrs53 bps45 bps USD30 yrs71 bps66 bps

26. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Click to add Side-Bar text £ iBoxx corporate index > 600 constituents: Market cap - £ 275trn High financial weighting 80% A, BBB 7 year duration

27. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Analysis – Rolling liability matched duration Liability Constant duration Duration matched Asset iBoxx £ corporate Duration contracted through crisis Investment in iBoxx index – remainder risk-free

28. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Analysis – Rolling liability longer duration Liability Constant 10 year duration Asset iBoxx £ corporate Duration contracted through crisis Investment in iBoxx index – remainder risk-free

29. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Click to add Side-Bar text £ iBoxx covered bond 200 constituents: Market cap £ 75trn Covered is small market in GBP 49% A, BBB 8.7 year duration

30. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Analysis – Rolling liability with covered bonds Liability Duration matched Asset iBoxx £ collateralised Investment in iBoxx index – remainder risk-free

31. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Key observations 31 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Ability to hedge Exact hedge difficult/impossible? Tracking indices Replication Conflicts Capital stability versus minimisation 11% SCR capital for 50% iBoxx Earning liquidity premium versus hedging it

32. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Practical considerations

33. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Some practical considerations 33 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Conflict with other metrics Secondary risks – basis/counterparty/liquidity/operational Cost vs. benefit Liquidity premium Availability of suitable assets Capital implications Reinvestment risk

34. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Concluding thoughts

35. Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only In summary … 35 © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Long-dated liabilities Exposure to slope of curve prior to LLP Industry lobbying Liquidity premium Exact hedge difficult Capital stability vs. minimisation

36. © 2010 The Actuarial Profession  www.actuaries.org.uk Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Actuarial Bright Green R148 G166 B31 Actuarial Slate R32 G44 B52 * Secondary Olive Green R120 G162 B47 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Secondary Bottle Green R0 G147 B127 Secondary Turquoise R0 G138 B176 Secondary Aqua Blue R26 G160 B170 Secondary Pastel Green R126 G205 B195 Secondary Light Purple R123 G149 B174* Secondary Purple R97 G107 B156 Secondary Ecru R186 G163 B171 Secondary Yellow R215 G176 B18 Secondary Orange R213 G135 B43 Secondary Red R238 G52 B36 Secondary Rubine Red R226 G1 B119 *This colour reference is for screen presentations only Life conference and exhibition 2011 How to hedge the risk-free rate under Solvency II 20-22 November 2011