HarvestPlus c/o IFPRI 2033 K Street, NW Washington, DC USA Tel: Fax: A spatial perspective to introducing biofortified staple food crops in Colombia Impact and Policy Research Units Jose Funes Funes, J., C. González, S. Perez, E. Birol, M. Moursi, and M. Zeller Edinburg, UK, October, 2015

Outline Background Objectives Methods and data Results Conclusions 2

Background: definition Biofortification: It is the process of breeding staple food crops with higher micronutrient content with additional traits i.e. yields. A cost- effective innovation to reach malnourished populations in rural and urban areas. HarvestPlus (CIAT and IFPRI) – global convener on biofortification. 3

Background: scope of the problem Micronutrient malnutrition results from poor quality diets, characterized by a high intake of staple foods, such as rice and maize, and low consumption of micronutrient-rich foods, such as fruits and vegetables. It affects populations living in poverty that often do not have the means to grow or purchase more expensive micronutrient- rich foods. Micronutrient malnutrition affect 2 billions people across the world. 4

Background: micronutrients of focus – Iron Impairs mental development and learning capacity May increase risk of women dying in childbirth – Zinc Causes stunting, lower immunity, increases risk of diarrheal disease – Vitamin A Impairs growth Causes eye damage leading to blindness 5

Background: crop-micronutrients Seven combinations: – Iron-beans – Iron-pearl millet – Vitamin A-cassava – Vitamin A-maize – Vitamin A-sweet potato – Zinc-rice – Zinc-wheat 6

Background: geographic coverage Asia – Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan Africa – Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia. More than 2 million farming households in these eight target countries are currently growing and eating biofortified crops. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) – Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Haiti, Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Panama. 7

Background: global BPI Global Biofortification Prioritization Index(BPI) – ranks countries for their suitability to introduced biofortified staple food crops. – factors in the extent of: Micronutrient deficiency Consumption of the crop Production of the crop 8

Background: limitations global BPI The global BPI helps us choose across countries. It does not capture heterogeneity within countries. Hence we started developing more granular, subnational BPIs for India, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Colombia. 9

Why Colombia? According to the global BPI Colombia ranks as a medium priority country – Twelfth in zinc-rice As high as 50 percent of children under 5 suffer from zinc deficiency(ENSIN 2010). To develop a spatial methodology to prioritize interventions within countries. 10

Objectives To bridge the geographic-scale gap for geographic targeting of biofortified crops from national to subnational. To systematically identify areas of intervention (crop-surplus areas). To guide strategies for spatial targeting by exploring the demand and supply of crop j and the extent of micronutrient deficiency. 11

This study fills the gap It explores geographical differences in crop production, consumption, and micronutrient deficiency at subnational level. It introduces a spatial interaction index derived from an economic gravity model for rice. We propose five micronutrient-crop combinations. These include: vitamin A-cassava, zinc-rice, vitamin A-yellow maize, zinc-white maize, and high iron-beans. 12

Conceptual framework BPI formula: 13 Asare-Marfo et al. 2013

Production Sub Index Measures the intensity of crop production Production index = [1/2*per capita area harvested] + [1/2* share of agricultural land allocated to the crop]. 14

Consumption Sub Index Measures the magnitude of per-capita consumption of crop j; it considers the consumption for two geographies, rural and urban; Cg, g=1, 2, respectively. 15

Variables: Percentage of population at risk of inadequate intake of zinc (children 1-4 years < 65 mg/dL), and Prevalence of stunting among children 6-59 months age. Micronutrient Deficiency Sub Index Micronutrient Index (Zinc) = ½*Prevalence of Zinc deficiency + ½*Stunting prevalence 16

Spatial interaction index (SII) Estimates aggregate potential commodity flows between areas of intervention (crop production in location i) and areas of potential impact j. 17 where the subscript i pertains to an excess surplus of crop a in a producing department. The excess supply Q sai at department i is the difference after fulfilling its own crop demand (food, seed, and feed). This excess supply Q sai is shipped to potential deficit areas, i.e. municipality k within neighbor department j, with excess crop demand Q dajk. The excess demand Q dajk at municipality k is the difference after consuming its own crop supply. Q sari is the residual value, obtained after the first loop, of subtracting Q dajk from Q sai. D is the Euclidean distance D between i and j adjusted by exponent b.

a) agroecological zones & population density b) road network and marketshed 18

Results: travel time to cities greater or equal than 100 thousand people, population, rice production Colombia DecileAverage travel time (hrs)Share total populationTotal rice production (thousand $) , , , , , , , , , ,034 total/average9100 1,201,582 19

Results: a) BPI & b) Areas for intervention or/and impact 20

Spatial interaction index: areas of interventions 21

Conclusions The subnational BPI in combination with the SII can provide decision makers with information on where to invest in biofortification interventions. The SII aims to systematically identify areas of intervention (crop-surplus areas). It helps to identify potential areas of delivery to ease the diffusion, dissemination, and adoption of biofortified seed. 22

Limitations Crop suitability – Biophysical factors – Environmental – Market structure variables 23

Global BPI -Interactive online tool 24

Thanks! 25