Economic and Political Risk Evaluator World class economic and political risk expertise OXFORD ECONOMICS AND CONTROL RISKS

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator A more rigorous approach to global risk analysis  Control Risks and Oxford Economics have joined forces to provide an innovative political and economic risk forecasting service that takes a holistic view of risk in a complex, rapidly changing, globalised world.  Control Risks and Oxford Economics combine extensive geopolitical, operational and security expertise with rigorous economic forecasts and models on 200 countries and 100 industries.  Together, we provide the most complete risk analysis in the market with an unparalleled network of geopolitical and economic experts.  The Economic and Political Risk Evaluator sits alongside our global consultancy offering that draws on a unique heritage of analytical rigour and real-world experience.

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator The Economic and Political Risk Evaluator identifies and monitors the risks of doing business in 164 countries. It is a platform for analysing economic and geopolitical risks through regularly updated ratings, in-depth profiles and event-driven updates. The service uses advanced visualisation tools, and can be customised to fit an organisation’s own risk profile.  Risk profiles for 164 countries. Each country’s risk score and analysis is formulated in-house and updated by our analysts and economists on a regular basis.  Risk scores and rankings. Each country’s risk score is based on a range of rankings based on key political, economic, business and security risks.  Detailed analysis. For each of 11 risk indicators, we provide quantitative and qualitative information and narrative, a data annex and tables to show the impacts on key economic and political variables.  Timing of risks. A unique timeline feature shows the timing of risk events, to forecast when a risk might occur.  Advanced functionality. Compare risks between markets, and calibrate risk factors to your company’s risk exposure and appetite.

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Risk profiles for 164 countries Each country’s risk score and analysis is formulated and updated by our analysts and economists, with 67 key countries updated each quarter or as events dictate.

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Risk metrics that drive the Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Control Risks and Oxford Economics have chosen 11 variables that are the most relevant for assessing political and economic risk: Economic and financial  Sovereign: risk that a government will default on its debt.  Exchange rate: risk of a significant movement in the exchange rate.  Trade credit: risk that a trading partner will not pay its obligation. Political  Political stability: the stability of the current government and the overall political system.  Ideology and policy: ideological and policy orientation of the current and future government.  International relations: with neighbours, trade partners and the international community. Business and market  Business environment: risks relating to the influence of societal and structural factors on business activity, including state and non-state actions.  Operating cost: risk that operating costs rise faster than recent trends.  Market demand: risk that market demand could be significantly different to recent trends. Security and social cohesion  Security environment: outlook for the domestic security environment - encompassing war, crime, violent unrest, terrorism, insurgency and other security issues.  Social cohesion: outlook for social stability, the prospect of social unrest and the significance of socio- cultural issues to policymaking.

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Key functionality and visualisation The Economic and Political Risk Evaluator uses proprietary software to allow users to create portfolios of countries, compare countries side-by-side, view countries on a map, and create custom risk weightings.  Country profile. Each country has a dedicated page that shows and explains our rating for each risk factor, provides forecasts and analysis for core economic data, and provides commentary on our assumptions, key developments, expected outcomes and what to watch, as well as a unique risk timeline.  Follow countries and create portfolios. Users can select countries to follow, and create portfolios of countries, for which the tool creates a composite risk score.  Comparison shelf. Compare the detailed risk ratings and profiles for up to four countries on one screen.  Configure your own score weights. A customisation screen allows users to create and apply their own weightings profile that can be applied to all countries or a specific country, to reflect their own organisation’s view of risk.

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Portfolio customisation  Create custom aggregations of countries.  Select ‘favourites’ to keep your eye on key markets

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Comparison shelf The Economic and Political Risk Evaluator allows users to compare analysis, key indicators, and risk timelines between markets.

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Customise weightings The Economic and Political Risk Evaluator allows users to compare analysis, key indicators, and risk timelines between markets. Calibrate risk indicator weightings to match your unique business interests or operations by country.

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Risk Rating Methodology 1.Our analysts and economists rate a series of political and economic risk factors for each country on a scale of 1-10, with 10 representing the highest level of risk. These are based on a series of qualitative and quantitative definitions and calculations. 2.Each political and economic rating is also assigned a default weight, based on its significance in the country context and its potential impact on business. Users are given the opportunity to modify these weightings in the customisation feature. 3.Individual political and economic risk variables are combined (multiplying rating by weighting) into overall political and economic risk ratings. Subscribers can do the same under the custom weightings they create. 4.The overall political and economic risk ratings are then combined to produce an overall risk score for every country. 5.Country risk ratings are supported by comprehensive descriptions, core metrics and data annexes.

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator Risk Rating Methodology Political stability Rating Weight Social cohesion Rating Weight Intl. relations Rating Weight Business environ. Rating Weight Security environ Rating Weight Ideology & policy Rating Weight Credit risk Rating Weight Mkt cost risk Rating Weight Trade risk Rating Weight Exchnge risk Rating Weight Mkt Dm risk Rating Weight POL Combined Rating ECON Combined Rating BASEOverall Rating ASSUMPTIONS DEVELOPMENTS OUTCOMES DATA ANNEX CORE METRICS

Economic and Political Risk Evaluator