Digital Aviation Services Paving the way for aviation forecasts of the future Cammye Sims Cammye Sims

Enhanced Digital Services Roadmap Enhanced Short Term Forecasting Detailed hourly grids – updated at a minimum every 3 hours Detailed hourly grids – updated at a minimum every 3 hours Digital Aviation Services Adding aviation elements to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Adding aviation elements to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

The Enhanced Short-Term Concept Keep the forecast “fresh” Keep the forecast “fresh” Focus on “high impact” weather events – to support Decision Support Services Focus on “high impact” weather events – to support Decision Support Services Be as definitive and detailed as possible within the next 36 hours Be as definitive and detailed as possible within the next 36 hours Detailed hourly grids are a must – updated every 3 hours Detailed hourly grids are a must – updated every 3 hours Tight gradients Tight gradients Collaborate meteorology! Collaborate meteorology!

Why Enhanced Short-Term? Forecast should be representative at T=0! Update was issued less than one hour ago!

Digital Aviation Services There is a demand for this information!

What are Digital Aviation Services Adding aviation elements to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Adding aviation elements to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Provide hourly graphical forecasts of ceiling and visibility out to 36 hours Provide hourly graphical forecasts of ceiling and visibility out to 36 hours TAFs are generated from the database with forecaster oversight TAFs are generated from the database with forecaster oversight

Hourly Graphical Forecasts A benefit for more than aviation!

A Change in Thinking KORH KBOS KPVD KBED What About Here???

Why Digital Aviation Services? Moves toward the NextGen requirement of a National Digital Ceiling and Visibility Grid Moves toward the NextGen requirement of a National Digital Ceiling and Visibility Grid Build a National Ceiling and Visibility Grid with 2-way collaboration from National Centers and WFOs Build a National Ceiling and Visibility Grid with 2-way collaboration from National Centers and WFOs Important guidance tool for medical services, search and rescue, and General Aviation Important guidance tool for medical services, search and rescue, and General Aviation Improves NWS forecast consistency with aviation forecasts and beyond Improves NWS forecast consistency with aviation forecasts and beyond

Collaboration Met Watch Offices and WFOs

Who is Producing Aviation Grids Participating NWS Forecast Offices are producing experimental digital forecasts of ceiling and visibility Participating NWS Forecast Offices are producing experimental digital forecasts of ceiling and visibility TAFs are generated from the grids, with forecaster oversight TAFs are generated from the grids, with forecaster oversight

Who is Producing Aviation Grids? Operational Current Test Phase Planned testing by end of FY16

Operations Assessment Customers noticing a difference Increased consistency between TAFs and other products Increased consistency between TAFs and other products More frequent and proactive updates More frequent and proactive updates Forecast information available for any point in forecast domain Forecast information available for any point in forecast domain Users can take the gridded database and create their own forecast products and displays Users can take the gridded database and create their own forecast products and displays “We have clearly noticed improved TAF performance and improved consistency in all public forecast products in the Boston area since NWS has been producing TAFs from the ceiling and visibility grids.” - Rick Curtis, Chief Meteorologist, Southwest Airlines “We have clearly noticed improved TAF performance and improved consistency in all public forecast products in the Boston area since NWS has been producing TAFs from the ceiling and visibility grids.” - Rick Curtis, Chief Meteorologist, Southwest Airlines

Operations Assessment Forecaster Assessment and Feedback Verification results are encouraging – equal or better scores Verification results are encouraging – equal or better scores Increased use of hi-res models Increased use of hi-res models Already seeing significant benefits to partners and customers Already seeing significant benefits to partners and customers TAFs and grids consistent TAFs and grids consistent Produce consistent forecasts across the user spectrum Produce consistent forecasts across the user spectrum Hourly NDFD grids available Hourly NDFD grids available Produce the best grids possible for all users Produce the best grids possible for all users

GSD Projects GSD Projects Digital Aviation Services: Digital Aviation Services: Analysis grids – analyze available options and provide gap analysis Analysis grids – analyze available options and provide gap analysis Smart Tool enhancements Smart Tool enhancements TAF Formatter Enhancements and clean up TAF Formatter Enhancements and clean up Porting IC4D to AWIPS II: Porting IC4D to AWIPS II: Formatter development and improvements Formatter development and improvements Adding IC4D Components to Hazard Services and GFE Adding IC4D Components to Hazard Services and GFE Aviation Funded Projects – FY16

EMC/AAWU Projects Baseline and Improve Alaska Aviation Weather Guidance Baseline and Improve Alaska Aviation Weather Guidance  Including Ceiling and Visibility EMC/AWC Projects Baseline and Improve CONUS Aviation Weather Guidance Baseline and Improve CONUS Aviation Weather Guidance  Including Ceiling and Visibility Aviation Funded Projects – FY15

Verification Projects with GSD and MDL Verification Projects with GSD and MDL Lead time to onset and cessation of thunderstorms within 75nm of FAA Core Airports and Jet Routes Lead time to onset and cessation of thunderstorms within 75nm of FAA Core Airports and Jet Routes Real time verification for the following elements: Real time verification for the following elements: Ceiling Heights, Ceiling Categories, and Visibility Ceiling Heights, Ceiling Categories, and Visibility Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Sky Cover Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Sky Cover Wind: Speed, Direction, and Gusts Wind: Speed, Direction, and Gusts High Wind Warning, Relative Humidity High Wind Warning, Relative Humidity Aviation Funded Projects – FY16

Proposed Incremental Milestones MilestoneDescription Wind GridsGrid Updated every 1-3 hours at ALL CONUS WFOs Wind Gust GridsGrid Updated every 1-3 hours at ALL CONUS WFOs Temperature GridsGrid Updated every 1-3 hours at ALL CONUS WFOs Dew Point Temperature Grids Grid Updated every 1-3 hours at ALL CONUS WFOs Weather GridsGrid Updated every 1-3 hours at ALL CONUS WFOs Probability of Precipitation Grids Grid Updated every 1-3 hours at ALL CONUS WFOs Sky GridsGrid Updated every 1-3 hours at ALL CONUS WFOs Snow Amount GridsGrid Updated every 1-3 hours at ALL CONUS WFOs Visibility GridsDevelop Prototype Visibility Grids to test at designated test sites Release more robust Prototype Visibility Grids at additional (select) WFOs to test All WFOs Producing Visibility Grids and updating every 1-3 hours Ceiling GridsDevelop Prototype Ceiling Grids to test at designated test sites Release more robust Prototype Ceiling Grids at additional (select) WFOs to test All WFOs Producing Ceiling Grids and updating every 1-3 hours

Proposed Incremental Milestones MilestoneDescription Convection Grids Develop Prototype Convective Grids Determine if Convective Grid is viable, if so, release to additional test sites If test is successful, ALL offices producing Convection Grids Low Level Wind Shear Grids Develop Prototype LLWS Grids at designated test sites Release more robust Prototype LLWS Grids at additional (select) WFOs to test All WFOs Producing LLWS Grids and updating every 1-3 hours Icing Grids Prototype Icing Grids at AWC, AAWU, HNL Release more robust Prototype Icing Grids to test at MWOs All MWOs Producing Icing Grids Turbulence Grids Prototype Turbulence Grids at AAWU, AWC, HNL Release more robust Prototype Turbulence Grids to test at MWOs All MWOs Producing Turbulence Grids Volcanic Ash Grids Prototype Volcanic Ash Grids at the VAACs Release more robust Prototype Turbulence Grids to test at the VAACs All VAACs Producing Volcanic Ash Grids

Current and Future Initiatives Coordinate the national requirements for Enhanced Digital Services Coordinate the national requirements for Enhanced Digital Services Assess new guidance tools e.g. - Gridded LAMP, and high resolution numerical model output Assess new guidance tools e.g. - Gridded LAMP, and high resolution numerical model output Enhance verification for the future Enhance verification for the future AAWU/AWC/HNL to produce forecasts from national Ceiling and Visibility grids using IC4D/GFE AAWU/AWC/HNL to produce forecasts from national Ceiling and Visibility grids using IC4D/GFE

Special Thanks Thomas LeFevbre, GSD Thomas LeFevbre, GSD Tracy Hansen, GSD Tracy Hansen, GSD Sarah Pontius, GSD Sarah Pontius, GSD Ben Schwedler, AWC Ben Schwedler, AWC Steven Lack, AWC Steven Lack, AWC Austin Cross, AWC Austin Cross, AWC WFOs BOX, GSP, TBW, HNL WFOs BOX, GSP, TBW, HNL