Textiles and Clothing, The Doha Development Agenda and Market Access Will Martin World Bank 6 May 2003

Topics Implications of the quota phase-out Barriers to developing country exports Proposals for expanding market access under the Doha Development Agenda Potential threats from contingent protection

Abolition of the ATC Quotas Will require all participants to compete strongly more like contemporary markets for shoes, toys and electronics Countries like India and China – currently constrained by ATC quotas – will shift heavily into clothing But big increases in exports of clothing and textiles reduce exports of other goods Creating opportunities for diversification

Quota abolition and China’s export volumes

Will there be market access for export expansion and diversification? Depends on tariffs in industrial and developing country markets Specific tariffs a particular concern – impose higher barriers on exports from poorer countries Also depend on reductions to be undertaken under the Doha Development Agenda

Barriers to exports from low income countries to 4 key markets, 2000

Will the DDA proposals increase market access? Some relatively specific proposals non- agricultural market access, for example, by China EU India USA

China Proposal Base rates Industrial countries: applied rates in 2000 Developing countries: ave bound & applied Newly acceding: ave bound 2000 & applied Modified Swiss Formula using country ’ s average tariff as the ceiling Cuts higher tariffs more than lower

EU Proposal Base rates Bound tariffs Increase the scope of binding Compression mechanism Larger cuts in higher tariffs Lowest duties to be abolished

India Proposal Base rates Bound rates Unbound rates may be bound at highest binding Mechanism Simple percentage cut Developing country tariff cuts 2/3 of industrial country cuts Then reduce all tariffs over 3 times the national average to 3 times the average

US Proposal Base Lower of bound or applied rates Mechanism to 2010 Reduce all tariffs below 5% to zero All other tariffs to be cut using a Swiss formula with a ceiling of 8% Bind all tariffs at zero by 2015

To get an indication of implications Convert specific tariffs into ad valorem to make comparable Set the India formula to generate 50 percent cut in base tariffs in industrial countries. Set the EU formula to a 1/3 cut below the average and a 2/3 cut above

Implications for tariffs facing low income countries in Brazil

Implications for tariffs facing low income countries in the EU

Implications for tariffs facing low income countries in India

Implications for tariffs facing low income countries in the USA

Creating Market Access At least four interesting proposals on the table could significantly reduce market access barriers for low income countries Outcomes depend heavily on very specific specifications of base rates and depth of cut Need careful analysis

Contingent protection Use of antidumping measures could sharply reduce the benefits of liberalization Serious defects relative to tariffs nontransparent unpredictable resists restructuring Of particularly serious concern to developing countries

Average definitive AD duties against

Average definitive AD duties, 2002

Conclusions Developing countries need to become more competitive in textiles and clothing after 2004, and to ensure policies allow diversification into other products Several proposed formula approaches could generate substantial additional market access Contingent protection, and particularly antidumping, poses serious threats to developing country exports