MARKET TREND MODEL FOR RENEWABLE MICRO-CHP IN EUROPE Gaia Group Oy Month 12 Meeting, Copenhagen, 28-29/9/2005 MICROCHEAP: The Integration of Micro-CHP and Renewable Energy Systems NTUA: Dr. Aggelos Doukelis GAIA: Mr. Jari Hiltunen Laboratory of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants/ National Technical University of Athens

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants  EUROSTAT data where available + assumptions Sheet 1: Energy data EU-25 Energy consumption (1/2)

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants  Calculations of basic energy data Sheet 1: Energy data EU-25 Energy consumption (2/2)

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants  Literature data on average persons/household, % of buildings per category + assumptions  Calculation: number of buildings/category, persons per building Sheet 2: Dwellings

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants  Utilisation of the first two sheets to calculate: number of "average" boilers and full load hours per building type and fuel category, heat requirements per building. Sheet 3: Full load hrs

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants  Estimation of market potential for 3 types of machines: 2 kW Stirling Engine for detached and semi-detached single-family houses 6 kW FC for buildings with less than 10 dwellings 18 kW microGT for buildings with more than 10 dwellings  Utilisation of typical operating data of the machines, capital cost data, fuel price and electricity price data (EUROSTAT) Sheet 4-6: Economics (1/6)

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants Sheet 4-6: Economics (2/6) 2 kW Stirling Engine

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants Sheet 4-6: Economics (3/6) 2 kW Stirling Engine

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants Sheet 4-6: Economics (4/6) 2 kW Stirling Engine

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants Sheet 4-6: Economics (5/6) 2 kW Stirling Engine

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants  The market potential is calculated by multiplying the market segment in each case (total number of boilers) by two factors which have a value between 0 and 1. For each of these factors a maximum value, rendering the factor 0, is set.  The first one is a "marketability factor", defined by the ratio capital cost/GDP (per building), representing a maximum “allowable” capital expenditure.  The second is the payback period factor, representing the economics of the investment. Sheet 4-6: Economics (6/6)

National Technical University of Athens/Lab. Of Steam Boilers and Thermal Plants Sheet 7: Summary market potential  An overview of the results is presented.  Calculation of the required biomass to cover the operation of the established total market potential is included. This is an important factor, since availability of such quantities may reduce the market potential.