A Perfect Storm? Andrew Pritchard Director of Policy & Infrastructure

Welfare Reform Bedroom tax/spare room subsidy (April 2013) Benefits Cap (from July 2013) Annual increases in benefits limited to 1% Universal Credit (from October 2013) Localisation (& reduction) of Council Tax Benefit Work Programme (ongoing) Adult Social Care White Paper

Housing Reform 50% reduction in public investment in social housing Introduction of ‘affordable rent’ (80% of market rent) Re-invigorated right to buy Housing Revenue Account (HRA) Reform Greater emphasis on private rented sector

Planning Reform Abolition of regional targets for market and affordable housing and for G&T pitch provision (but not supporting evidence…) Introduction of NPPF Greater emphasis on ‘viability’ Neighbourhood planning

At a time of economic uncertainty… Low GDP growth Falling productivity Rising unemployment Low income growth Relatively high inflation Interest rates at an all time low - but access to finance still a problem

How does it all add up? Will there be sufficient accommodation for people to down-size to? Will the benefits cap drive internal migration? Is the affordable rent model viable everywhere? What will happen to those who cannot pay and cannot move? What will be the impact on local economies and housing markets? What will be the impact on local planning - both policy and development management?

Are we heading for a ‘perfect storm’?

…or will it all be OK in the end?