Improving of Household Sample Surveys Data Quality on Base of Statistical Matching Approaches Ganna Tereshchenko Institute for Demography and Social Research,

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Presentation transcript:

Improving of Household Sample Surveys Data Quality on Base of Statistical Matching Approaches Ganna Tereshchenko Institute for Demography and Social Research, Kyiv, Ukraine The European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Rome, 8-11 July 2008

Measurement of Employment and Unemployment Main source is The State Sample Survey of Economic Activity of Population (LFS) : is conducted by State Statistics Committee of Ukraine by ILO methodology, according to international standards population in the age of 15–70 years is surveyed is conducted since 1995: in 1995–1998 once a year, in 1999–2003 – quarterly, since 2004 – monthly LFS sample cover all regions of Ukraine by type of settlements: urban area (cities, towns) and rural area size of monthly LFS sample is 32,5 thousands of surveyed households

Reliability of unemployment rate annual estimates

Improvement of reliability of LFS indicator estimates for rural area based on statistical matching approach Using of two probability stratified two stage samples: sample of LFS and sample of household agricultural activity survey (AAS) Sample design in AAS is differ from LFS: In AAS households are selected in the second stage with probability proportionally to their area of agricultural allotment, in LFS – on base of the procedure of systematic selection The size of monthly LFS sample in the rural area makes approximately 3,6 thousand households The size of AAS sample of households which have to be interviewed under LFS questionnaire is 7,4 thousand households Total size of monthly sample for interview under LFS questionnaire in the rural area due to AAS has increased three times and is equal to 11,1 thousand households

Rates of employment and unemployment by regions of Ukraine, February, 2007

Composite estimation

Calculation of optimal weights coefficients and where – standard error of estimate of employed population number on LFS sample; – standard error of estimate of employed population number on AAS sample; – standard error of estimate of unemployed population number on LFS sample; – standard error of estimate of unemployed population number on AAS sample, is the bias of estimate of number of employed population by data of AAS, calculated as average of biases for current and the two previous months, is the bias of estimate of number of unemployed population by data of AAS, calculated as average of biases for current and the two previous months.

Calculation of coefficients for adjustment of the resulted employed and unemployed persons weights in rural area On the first stage value of is calculated for employed and unemployed persons in rural area by the formula: The corrected statistical weights of employed and unemployed persons in rural area of each region are calculated by the formula:

Calculation of coefficients for adjustment of the resulted economically inactive persons weights in rural area On the second stage value of is calculated for economically inactive persons in rural area for each region by the formula: where – total number of able-bodied population in rural area of region, calculated on external data; – estimate of employed population number on LFS sample in view of corrected statistical weights ; – estimate of employed population number on AAS sample in view of corrected statistical weights ; – estimate of unemployed population number on LFS sample in view of corrected statistical weights ; – estimate of employed population number on AAS sample in view of corrected statistical weights ; – estimate of economically inactive population number on LFSP sample in view of corrected statistical weights ; – estimate of economically inactive population number on AAS sample in view of corrected statistical weights

Reliability of employment rate monthly estimates in rural area before and after statistical matching of the LFS data, February, 2007

Reliability of unemployment rate monthly estimates in rural area before and after statistical matching of the LFS data, February, 2007

Potential problem with comparability of unemployment rate estimates by regions Share of incomparable estimates where – number of regions RegionType of data Crimea1LFS Vinnytsia0LFS&ASS Volyn0LFS&ASS Dnipropetrovsk0LFS&ASS Donetsk0LFS&ASS Zhytomyr0LFS&ASS Zakarpattya0LFS&ASS Zaporizhya0LFS&ASS Ivano-Frankivsk1LFS Kyiv0LFS&ASS Kirovograd0LFS&ASS Lugansk1LFS Lviv0LFS&ASS Mykolaiv0LFS&ASS Odesa0LFS&ASS Poltava0LFS&ASS Rivne0LFS&ASS Sumy0LFS&ASS Ternpoil0LFS&ASS Kharkiv0LFS&ASS Kherson0LFS&ASS Khmelnytsky1LFS Cherkasy1LFS Chernivtsi1LFS Chernigiv0LFS&ASS

Relative efficiency of matching procedure by regions, February, 2007

Conclusions Statistical matching of the labour force survey data, received on samples with different design has allowed improving the reliability level of employment and unemployment indicators estimation in rural area. At the same time there is a potential problem with providing of data comparability It is necessary to take into account that the volume of the information for processing grows and estimation procedures are complicated

Thank you for attention! Ganna Tereshchenko Institute for Demography and Social Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Kyiv, Ukraine