SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR) U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2 U.S. North American Carbon Program (NACP) Investigators Meeting Colorado Springs, CO January 22, 2007 Anthony King Oak Ridge National Laboratory For the SOCCR Coordinating Team Anthony King (ORNL)Lisa Dilling (U.Colo/NCAR) David Fairman (CBI)Richard “Skee” Houghton (WHRC) Gregg Marland (ORNL)Adam Rose (USC) Tom Wilbanks (ORNL)Greg Zimmerman (ORNL)

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report The SOCCR community Authors Stakeholders SOCCR Coordinating Team SOCCR Agency Executive Committee Climate Change Science Program

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Outline of the Presentation Purpose of the SOCCR Process of producing the SOCCR Product –Structure of the report –Key findings and highlights –Data gaps and uncertainties Prospectus vis-à-vis the NACP

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report The purpose of the SOCCR is … To summarize scientific knowledge about carbon cycle properties and changes for North America. To provide scientific information for decision support and policy formulation concerning carbon.

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report SOCCR Science Questions What are the primary carbon sources and sinks in North America, and how are they changing? How do North American carbon sources and sinks relate to the global carbon cycle? How are North American carbon sources and sinks affected by present and anticipated future changes in human activities and climate? What are the primary uncertainties in the North American carbon budget, and what factors affect carbon budget uncertainties and information quality? What scientific information is most needed to support carbon management and climate policy decisions?

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report SOCCR Approach Integrated content– not just “natural” carbon cycle Community document- written by leading scientific experts (90 or more involved) Includes authors from Mexico and Canada (North American focus) Stakeholders incorporated very early on and at points where input can “make a difference” Provide opportunity for direct author/stakeholder interaction; but responsibility for content lies with authors Document intended for decision maker audience (thinking beyond technical accuracy to presentation and style)

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report SOCCR SAP 2.2 Milestones 2004 Sept.-October 2004: Initial Stakeholder Assessment, review of chapter outline November 15-16, 2004: First stakeholder workshop, Washington D.C. November-December 2004: revised outline posted for comment on SOCCR website 2005 January 2005: draft Prospectus submitted to CCSP February 2–March 7, 2005: public comment on draft CCSP 2.2 Prospectus May 16-17, 2005: First lead chapter authors workshop, Atlanta GA October 2005: “Zero”-order draft completed October 24-25, 2005: Joint stakeholder and author workshop, Arlington VA May 2006: Draft 1 submitted for technical review 2006 September 1, 2006: Delivered revised Draft 2 for 45-day public review October 10, 2006: Third stakeholder workshop, Washington DC November 3, 2006: Public comment period closes November-December 2006: Authors’ revision and response to public comments 2007 January 31, 2007: Delivery of Draft 3 to AEC and CCSP March 2007: Release of final report following CCSP and NSTC review

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Stakeholder Assessment Methodology –Interviews with 30 stakeholders, chosen from previous involvement, in Oct –Provided draft SOCCR outline before interviews –Drafted not-for-attribution report, circulated to interviewees for comment, revised and finalized Feedback on SOCCR content, process and product –Science: how carbon cycle works, main sources and sinks, areas of uncertainty (esp. sinks) –Policy: assess mitigation options, esp. in energy sector, land management –SOCCR process and product: critical need for objectivity (candidate authors), relevance, accessibility for non-scientist stakeholders

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Workshop Feedback First workshop: Major revision of outline –Feedback on making report relevant to stakeholders, emphasize important components, have both synthetic and sector-specific information, questions for part I Second workshop: Responding to “0 th ” draft –Feedback on reducing length, improving clarity, develop common elements (parts II and III) Third workshop: Responding to public (2 nd ) draft –Feedback on process, stakeholder involvement, content discussion especially of chapter 4, discussion of dissemination strategies

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report The Design of the SOCCR There are three parts to the SOCCR, prefaced by an Executive Summary: The design of the SOCCR as a document started with an outline in the original proposal but evolved significantly based on input from the First Stakeholders Workshop in November 2004, and the First Authors workshop in May Part I: The Carbon Cycle in North America Part II: Energy, Industry and Waste Management Activities Part III: Land and Water Systems

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Part I: The Carbon Cycle in North America Chapter 1. What is the Carbon Cycle and Why Do We Care? –SOCCR Coordinating Team Chapter 2. The Carbon Cycle of North America in a Global Context –Chris Field (Coordinating Lead), Burke Hales, Jorge Sarmiento Chapter 3. The North American Carbon Budget Past and Present? –Steve Pacala (Coordinating Lead), Rich Birdsey, Scott Bridgham, Rich Conant, Ken Davis, Burke Hales, Richard Houghton, Jen Jenkins, Mark Johnston, Gregg Marland, and Keith Paustian Chapter 4. What are the Options That Could Significantly Affect the Carbon Cycle? –Erik Haites (Coordinating Lead), Ken Caldeira, Patricia Romero Lankao, Adam Rose, Tom Wilbanks Chapter 5. How Can We Improve the Usefulness of Carbon Science for Decision-Making? –Lisa Dilling and Ron Mitchell (Coordinating Leads), David Fairman

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Part II: Energy, Industry and Waste Management Activities Overview of Part II: Energy, Industry, and Waste Management Activities: An Introduction to CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels -- Gregg Marland Chapter 6: Energy Extraction and Conversion -- Thomas Wilbanks Chapter 7: Transportation -- David Greene Chapter 8: Industry and Waste Management -- John Nyboer Chapter 9: Buildings -- James McMahon

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Part III: Land and Water Systems Overview of Part III: The Carbon Cycle in Land and Water Systems –Richard (Skee) Houghton Chapter 10. Agriculture and Grazing Lands –Rich Conant and Keith Paustian Chapter 11. North American Forests –Richard Birdsey, Jennifer Jenkins, Mark Johnston and Elisabeth Huber- Sannwald Chapter 12. Carbon Cycle in the Permafrost Region of North America –Charles Tarnocai Chapter 13. Wetlands –Scott Bridgham Chapter 14. Human Settlements and the North American Carbon Cycle –Diane Pataki Chapter 15. Coastal Oceans –Francisco Chavez and Taro Takahashi

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Some key findings of the current draft of the SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 North American carbon budget Options to manage carbon

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report North America is currently a net source of CO 2 (1336 ± 334 Mt C yr -1 ), with 30% of fossil fuel emissions (1856  464 Mt C yr -1 in 2003) offset by a net terrestrial sink of 520  260 Mt C yr -1.

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 Energy and industrial fossil-fuel emissions are dominated by emissions from the United States (85% in 2003; Canada 9% and Mexico 6%). The terrestrial sink is primarily associated with regrowing forests in the United States (  50%), with woody encroachment the next largest (  20%), but highly uncertain contributor. The future of the North American terrestrial sink is highly uncertain, with the expectation that the forest regrowth contribution will decline clouded by uncertainty in ecosystem response to CO 2 and climate.

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 Addressing imbalances in North American carbon budget requires options focused on reducing fossil fuel emissions. Potential for options focused on enhancing sinks is likely insufficient to deal with magnitude of current imbalance. Options include efficiency improvement, fuel switching, and technologies such as capture and storage. Mechanisms likely a mix of voluntary and policy-driven options, locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally. Demand for information by decision makers will require new thinking and mechanisms in carbon cycle research.

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report North America is currently a net source of CO 2 (1336 ± 334 Mt C yr -1 ), with 30% of fossil fuel emissions (1856  464 Mt C yr -1 in 2003) offset by a net terrestrial sink of 520  260 Mt C yr -1.

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Future sinks ?

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Key findings of the draft SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 … The terrestrial sink is primarily associated with regrowing forests in the United States (  50%), with woody encroachment the next largest (  20%), but highly uncertain contributor. The future of the North American terrestrial sink is highly uncertain, with the expectation that the forest regrowth contribution will decline clouded by uncertainty in ecosystem response to CO 2 and climate.

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Prospectus for synthesis and assessment vis-à-vis the NACP The first SOCCR is “pre-NACP” –information –Findings The SOCCR could provide a framework for a post-NACP “re- assessment” SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 will be released near the time of the IPCC Fourth assessment. The assessments for North America need to be compared. MODIS annual NPP averaged over Courtesy of Steve Running, U. Montana.

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report The First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): The North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2 currently in Draft 2; responding to public review; scheduled for release March / cdiac.ornl.gov/SOCCR/