Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong, Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Presented by Alex Ring March 2, 2006.
Advertisements

When Thinking About Valuation…  Key valuation questions are:  What is the company worth?  What would another party pay?  Remember that valuation involves.
Major classifications of multiples Price multiples – ratios of a stock’s market price to some measure of fundamental value per share Enterprise value multiples.
Business Portfolio Adding Value to Investors Luiz Fernando Rolla CFO October, 2008.
1 Financial Comparison Between The Boeing Company and Lockheed Martin Keith L. Hohl EMGT 452 Semester Project 14 December 1999.
Aqua America Since 1888 Jordan Nicholas and Matt Conley.
Statement of Cash Flows What information? –Cash lifeblood of organization –If not generate enough – not meet obligations, not stay in business Interrelationships.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Financial Statement Analysis CHAPTER 14.
Recommendation: Buy Share Price (as of 11/27/12): $43.36 Sonja Xholi Vince Tasso Palmer Pawlusiak James Berta Unit Corp. (UNT) NYSE.
Industrials Sector Jason Kraynak and Wade Guzdanski.
FI3300 Corporation Finance Spring Semester 2010 Dr. Isabel Tkatch Assistant Professor of Finance 1.
Chapter 17 Financial Statement Analysis. Topics Covered  Financial Ratios  DuPont System  Using Financial ratios  Measuring Company Performance 
Incentive Regulation Topics Scott A. Struck, CPA Financial Analysis Division Public Utilities Bureau Illinois Commerce Commission.
Ryan Williams. Learning Objectives Prepare common-sized Income Statements and Balance Sheets. Compute financial ratios listed in Table 4.1. Discuss uses.
This week its Accounting Theory
Financial Ratio Analysis
BU Finance & Investment Club Joseph McNiff & Xun Yao Chen Spring 2013 Introduction to Valuation.
Temple University Investment Association CenterPoint Energy NYSE: CNP Leads: Ryne Dudley & Kyle Perkins Associate Analysts: Hinal Patel, Hicham Belkssir,
Evaluating Financial Performance. The Key Questions: 1.Does the firm have the ability to meet maturing financial obligations? 2.Does management do a good.
Jack Henry & Associates, INC. (JKHY)
1 Analysis of Financial Statements. Overview of Financial Analysis First order of business is to SPECIFY THE OBJECTIVES OF THE ANALYSIS Remember -- the.
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.: Financial Analysis
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Mary Voss December 2, 2004.
Financial Analysis Macrovision Corporation An Overview of Financial Performance Presented November 30, 2006 by Radityo Ardi Nugraha and Chenchen (Carl)
Ameren Corporation (AEE) November 15, 2007 Tom Grove Jason Mueller Marissa Muge Tian.
METHANEX: Valuation and Strategic Review MICHAEL COOK ERIN ROBINSON PHIL WALLACE RUSHAB HARIA RAJANVIR AHUJA Recommendation: BUY 1-year Price Target: C$36.15.
Ameren NYSE: AEE Presented by: Ed Kennedy Brandon Honey March 12, 2009.
Recommendation: BUY United Parcel Service (UPS); Sell NG, JOYG, BHP.
Chapter 5 Presented by Group 6
Netgear, Inc April/03/2012 Presentors: Ryo-Seob(Joseph) Kim Jionghan(JD) Dai Han(Henry) Yang Pattharaporn (Pauline) Lertphaiboonsiri Yen-Hua(Gina) Huang.
MT 217 Unit 3 Seminar.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc.
Natural Resource Partners L.P. Investor Meetings West Coast March 19-20, 2007.
Analyst: JohnPaul Bennett Thursday, November 19, 2009.
Drew Osika Jack Hainline Dan Glotzbach Greg Bruno December 7, 2010.
STAPLES COMPANY VALUATION JACKIE PHAN LATRISHA SEARCY ANNA DAI.
Copyright  2006 Pearson Education Canada Inc
First Industrial Realty Trust November 20, 2008 Brian Bird Ryan Foelske.
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) RCMP Presentation Kristoffer Inton.
MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR) Brandon Lee and David Light March 11, 2008.
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC. APRIL 23, 2013 Kaushik Andra, Dan Ballantine, & Keaton J. Cervantes.
Wyoming Pipeline Authority October 28, 2003 Mark Quinlan Director Marketing. Mark Quinlan Director Marketing.
CDA COLLEGE BUS235: PRINCIPLES OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Lecture 1 Lecture 1 Lecturer: Kleanthis Zisimos.
Paul J. Evanson President Florida Power & Light Company Gabelli Asset Management Company 18 th Annual Conference May 17, 2003.
Chapter 15 Jones, Investments: Analysis and Management
Part II: Business Environment Introduction to Business 3e 5 Copyright © 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. Assessing Industry Conditions.
December 4, 2008 Lucian Tira Keenan Johnston Pragnesh Podar Brad Johnson.
Analyzing Financial Statements
Ameren Corp. (AEE) Matt Thompson Steve Proffer Chris Ehley Presented April 3, 2007.
Charlie Penicook and Zuowei Xu November 19, 2013.
Zachary (Zoujia) Chen Justin Craigwell-Graham Charles Gambino Vignesh Murali Jacob Rapp November 12, 2009
Ameren Corp (AEE) Presented by Alex Ring & Carl Wang November 16, 2006.
KMB Presentation by: Mei-Hsuan Chao Zuojia Chen Suyang Hong Jung Hyun Kim 12/08/2009.
First Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call April 18, 2013.
Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference May 14, 2014.
Ratio Analysis…. Types of ratios…  Performance Ratios: Return on capital employed. (Income Statement and Balance Sheet) Gross profit margin (Income Statement)
CHAPTER 3 Analysis of Financial Statements 1. Topics in Chapter Ratio analysis DuPont system Effects of improving ratios Limitations of ratio analysis.
Real Client Managed Portfolio Air Lease Corporation October 20, 2016 Presented by Jiaze Li and Di Liu.
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call October 18, 2012
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc
Wind Project Ownership - An Investor Owned Utility Perspective John R
FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS & FORECASTING
Wind Project Ownership - An Investor Owned Utility Perspective John R
Presented by Alex Ring April 25, 2006
Sashikanth (Sash) Yenika Vanditha Ravindranath
Business plan competition
Miller Industries NYSE : MLR Yunfeng Bian Zuoquan Li
Financial Statement Analysis
Exelon Corporation Energy Group
Presentation transcript:

Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong, Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang

Agenda  Company Overview  Financial Analysis  DCF  Comparison Analysis  Recommendation

Company Background  Public utility holding company  Headquartered in St. Louis, MO  Provide electricity and natural gas service to Missouri and Illinois  Created in December 1997 by the merger of CIPSCO Incorporated and Union Electric Company  Listed on NYSE on January 2, 1998  Acquired CILCORP Inc. in 2003 and Illinois Power Company in 2004

 Missouri regulated:  UE  Illinois regulated:  CIPS  CILCO  IP  Non-rate-regulated generation:  Genco  AERG  EEI Business Segments

From 2008 annual report pg 17 Location Map

Regulation  The utility rates are determined by government entities such as MoPSC and ICC  Subjected to environment laws and regulations  Need approval by FERC before issuing debt and equity, merging, or acquiring utility

Rate Increases  Missouri  MoPSC approved UE to increase electricity revenue by $162 mi on Jan 27 th 09.  Filled in April 08, effective by Mar 09 based on 10.76% ROE.  On July 24 th 09, request rate to increase be $402 mi  Expected to begin in Jun 2010.

Rate Increases (cont.)  Illinois  On Sep 08, ICC approved new rate to increase Ameren’s revenue by $161 mi based on 10.7% ROE  On June 09, Ameren filled to increase $226 mi  Revised to $162 mi, decision made by Mar, effective by May

Industry Issues  Political and regulatory resistance to higher rate  Uncertain access to capital and credit market  Availability of fuel and price changes  Weather (summer not as hot, winter not as cold)

Recent News  Entered into multiyear credit facility agreements that provide substantial borrowing capacity through the middle of 2011  Issued 21.9 million shares of its common stock for net proceeds of $535 million in September 2009  Rate cases pending in Illinois and Missouri jurisdictions

Most recent credit rating

Strength - Scale Biggest in MO, 2 nd in IL - Better customer service - Diverse customers Weakness - Government Regulation ‘Legislative Lag’ - Volatility in Commodity Prices, Price risk - Electricity mainly from Coal Opportunity - Reduce operating cost - Adding new plants - Expected Rate increases Threats - Ability to get credit - Government Regulation Green house effect - Unexpected Plant Outage - Consolidation in the industry SWOT Analysis

Competitors  Centerpoint Energy (CNP)  Electricity capacity of 51,400 mega watts, 3.2 million customers in natural gas  Exelon Corp. (EXC)  Electricity capacity of 24,809 mega watts, 5.4 million customers  Great Plain Energy Inc. (GXP)  Electricity capacity of 6,000 mega watts, 82,000 customers

Earnings Summary Performance drivers ↓ Higher fuel and related transportation pries ↓ Increased distribution system reliability expenditures ↓ Higher plant operations and maintenance operations ↓ Unfavorable weather conditions ↑ Higher realized margins from non-rate regulated generation operations ↑ The absence of costs in 2008 that were incurred in January 2007 associated with electric outages caused by severe ice storms ↑ The reduced impact in 2008 of the electric rate relief and customer assistance program provided to certain customers in Illinois ↑ higher electric and natural gas delivery service rates

Profitability

Financial Leverage

Efficiency

DuPont Analysis NI/EBT EBT/EBIT EBIT/Sales Sales/Assets Assets/Equity Return on Equity12.79%10.44%9.96%8.45%9.25%8.82% Return on Assets3.97%3.35%3.40%2.90%3.06%2.79%

DuPont Analysis

Stock performance comparison

Management Assessment  Focused on delivering safe, reliable, and affordable energy, while achieving solid returns - A commitment to investing in our Illinois and Missouri regulated business - Building Constructive Regulatory Frame-works - Optimizing our existing non-rate-regulated generation assets - Demonstrating Environmental Leadership  Consistent management - Good at predicting economic outlook and its impact on the company

Assumptions  Annual revenue growth  Electricity 9%  Gas 12%  COGS growth  Fuel declining from 9.5% and 1% decreasing every year  Gas declining from 15% and 2% decreasing every year  Depreciation  Straight line at 3% of the gross PP&E  Capital expenditure  $1,685 mi in 2009 and $6,600 mi to $8,700 mi over next four y ears

DCF Forecasted Net Income Depreciation/Amortization Capital Expenditures( )( )( ) Changes in Net Working Capital351.00(17.82) (159.05) FCF(255.00)(268.50) Terminal Value Present Value of FCFF (250.93) Sustainable Growth Rate2.5% WACC7.0% Firm Value Current Value of Operations 11, Cash & Cash Equivalence Debt 6,554.0 Stock Price Equals Value +/- 10%23.34 / 19.10

Peer Comparison Trailing P/EForward P/EP/SP/BEV/EBITDA Centerpoint Energy Exelon Great Plain Energy

Peer Comparison AmerenMinimumAverageMaximum Trailing P/E Forward P/E P/S multiple P/B multiple EV/EBITDA multiple

Correlation CORRELATION WITH AEE AEO0.022 DO0.177 FR0.569 JKHY0.268 KMB0.391 MCD0.435 SRCL0.133 WAG0.335 WFR0.183

Portfolio Chart

Current Holding Position  Purchased 400 shares at $50.03 on April 27, 2006  Sold 200 shares at $20.84 on March 16, 2009  Currently hold 200 shares

Recommendation  The close price on November 18, 2009 is $25.88  Based on our assumptions, the intrinsic value is $19.1~23.34  We recommend to sell the remaining 200 shares at the market price due to the projected negative FCF and the high percentage of terminal value in the present value

Sources  Ameren 10K Reports  Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com)  Google Finance (finance.google.com)  Reuters (  Ameren website (  Bloomberg  One source