Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong, Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang
Agenda Company Overview Financial Analysis DCF Comparison Analysis Recommendation
Company Background Public utility holding company Headquartered in St. Louis, MO Provide electricity and natural gas service to Missouri and Illinois Created in December 1997 by the merger of CIPSCO Incorporated and Union Electric Company Listed on NYSE on January 2, 1998 Acquired CILCORP Inc. in 2003 and Illinois Power Company in 2004
Missouri regulated: UE Illinois regulated: CIPS CILCO IP Non-rate-regulated generation: Genco AERG EEI Business Segments
From 2008 annual report pg 17 Location Map
Regulation The utility rates are determined by government entities such as MoPSC and ICC Subjected to environment laws and regulations Need approval by FERC before issuing debt and equity, merging, or acquiring utility
Rate Increases Missouri MoPSC approved UE to increase electricity revenue by $162 mi on Jan 27 th 09. Filled in April 08, effective by Mar 09 based on 10.76% ROE. On July 24 th 09, request rate to increase be $402 mi Expected to begin in Jun 2010.
Rate Increases (cont.) Illinois On Sep 08, ICC approved new rate to increase Ameren’s revenue by $161 mi based on 10.7% ROE On June 09, Ameren filled to increase $226 mi Revised to $162 mi, decision made by Mar, effective by May
Industry Issues Political and regulatory resistance to higher rate Uncertain access to capital and credit market Availability of fuel and price changes Weather (summer not as hot, winter not as cold)
Recent News Entered into multiyear credit facility agreements that provide substantial borrowing capacity through the middle of 2011 Issued 21.9 million shares of its common stock for net proceeds of $535 million in September 2009 Rate cases pending in Illinois and Missouri jurisdictions
Most recent credit rating
Strength - Scale Biggest in MO, 2 nd in IL - Better customer service - Diverse customers Weakness - Government Regulation ‘Legislative Lag’ - Volatility in Commodity Prices, Price risk - Electricity mainly from Coal Opportunity - Reduce operating cost - Adding new plants - Expected Rate increases Threats - Ability to get credit - Government Regulation Green house effect - Unexpected Plant Outage - Consolidation in the industry SWOT Analysis
Competitors Centerpoint Energy (CNP) Electricity capacity of 51,400 mega watts, 3.2 million customers in natural gas Exelon Corp. (EXC) Electricity capacity of 24,809 mega watts, 5.4 million customers Great Plain Energy Inc. (GXP) Electricity capacity of 6,000 mega watts, 82,000 customers
Earnings Summary Performance drivers ↓ Higher fuel and related transportation pries ↓ Increased distribution system reliability expenditures ↓ Higher plant operations and maintenance operations ↓ Unfavorable weather conditions ↑ Higher realized margins from non-rate regulated generation operations ↑ The absence of costs in 2008 that were incurred in January 2007 associated with electric outages caused by severe ice storms ↑ The reduced impact in 2008 of the electric rate relief and customer assistance program provided to certain customers in Illinois ↑ higher electric and natural gas delivery service rates
Profitability
Financial Leverage
Efficiency
DuPont Analysis NI/EBT EBT/EBIT EBIT/Sales Sales/Assets Assets/Equity Return on Equity12.79%10.44%9.96%8.45%9.25%8.82% Return on Assets3.97%3.35%3.40%2.90%3.06%2.79%
DuPont Analysis
Stock performance comparison
Management Assessment Focused on delivering safe, reliable, and affordable energy, while achieving solid returns - A commitment to investing in our Illinois and Missouri regulated business - Building Constructive Regulatory Frame-works - Optimizing our existing non-rate-regulated generation assets - Demonstrating Environmental Leadership Consistent management - Good at predicting economic outlook and its impact on the company
Assumptions Annual revenue growth Electricity 9% Gas 12% COGS growth Fuel declining from 9.5% and 1% decreasing every year Gas declining from 15% and 2% decreasing every year Depreciation Straight line at 3% of the gross PP&E Capital expenditure $1,685 mi in 2009 and $6,600 mi to $8,700 mi over next four y ears
DCF Forecasted Net Income Depreciation/Amortization Capital Expenditures( )( )( ) Changes in Net Working Capital351.00(17.82) (159.05) FCF(255.00)(268.50) Terminal Value Present Value of FCFF (250.93) Sustainable Growth Rate2.5% WACC7.0% Firm Value Current Value of Operations 11, Cash & Cash Equivalence Debt 6,554.0 Stock Price Equals Value +/- 10%23.34 / 19.10
Peer Comparison Trailing P/EForward P/EP/SP/BEV/EBITDA Centerpoint Energy Exelon Great Plain Energy
Peer Comparison AmerenMinimumAverageMaximum Trailing P/E Forward P/E P/S multiple P/B multiple EV/EBITDA multiple
Correlation CORRELATION WITH AEE AEO0.022 DO0.177 FR0.569 JKHY0.268 KMB0.391 MCD0.435 SRCL0.133 WAG0.335 WFR0.183
Portfolio Chart
Current Holding Position Purchased 400 shares at $50.03 on April 27, 2006 Sold 200 shares at $20.84 on March 16, 2009 Currently hold 200 shares
Recommendation The close price on November 18, 2009 is $25.88 Based on our assumptions, the intrinsic value is $19.1~23.34 We recommend to sell the remaining 200 shares at the market price due to the projected negative FCF and the high percentage of terminal value in the present value
Sources Ameren 10K Reports Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com) Google Finance (finance.google.com) Reuters ( Ameren website ( Bloomberg One source