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Financial Analysis Macrovision Corporation An Overview of Financial Performance Presented November 30, 2006 by Radityo Ardi Nugraha and Chenchen (Carl)

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Presentation on theme: "Financial Analysis Macrovision Corporation An Overview of Financial Performance Presented November 30, 2006 by Radityo Ardi Nugraha and Chenchen (Carl)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Financial Analysis Macrovision Corporation An Overview of Financial Performance Presented November 30, 2006 by Radityo Ardi Nugraha and Chenchen (Carl) Wang

2 Agenda Macrovision Corporation provides digital lifecycle value management solutions that enable the delivery and enhanced use of software and content. This presentation provides an overview of our financial analysis. Overview Portfolio Position Business Competitors Stock Facts DCF Analysis Overall Portfolio Fit Recommendation

3 Company Facts Headquartered in Santa Clara, California Macrovision is traded on the Nasdaq National Market under the symbol MVSN Market leader in content protection, software licensing and installation, and digital rights management (DRM) technologies Alfred J. Amoroso President/Chief Executive Officer –Beforehand Amoroso was president and chief executive officer at CrossWorlds Software. –Prior to CrossWorlds, Amoroso was general manager of IBM Global Services Asia Pacific.

4 Portfolio Position Bought 200 shares of MVSN at $75 on April 3, 2000 Since inception it has produced a annual return of: -14% Total Loss of: -$9432 which is representing a total return of -63% % of Portfolio (market): 2% Reviewed on March 2006 (Hold)

5 Company Facts (Cont.) Market Cap: $1.39 Billion 2005 Revenue: $203 Million 2005 Net Income: $23 million Stock Price: $27.20 Beta: 1.26 (Bloomberg) 2005 ROE: 5.17% 100% Equity Employees : 692 Financial Year End: December 31 st *Facts from 2005 10-K

6 Industry The design, distribution, protection and consumption of all forms of digital content and software Content and copyright owners are increasingly vulnerable to unauthorized use of their content Annual Loss: $23-$25 billion to the U.S. copyright industries. Entertainment & Software distributors and publishers have become more concerned with protecting their intellectual property.

7 Industry (Cont.) Software vendors and systems vendors need simple, scalable solutions for the use of their products Seeking ways to package their products in order to reach a larger share of the available market. Enterprise customers focused on tools that provide a simple installation, activation and maintenance experience

8 Core Business Entertainment Technologies –Revenues increased $4.4 million or 22.4% from the third quarter of 2005 –Growth in hardware licensing, e.g. set top box licensing Software Technologies –Revenues increased $7.1 million or 32% from the third quarter of 2005 –Growth in market penetration and a growing customer base, as well as a result of the acquisition of eMeta Significant seasonality in business

9 Costs and Expenses Entertainment Technologies –Replicator fees, Hawkeye service costs, ActiveMARK service costs and patent related litigation expense Software Technologies –Product support costs, direct labor costs of employees on consulting or training, the cost of patent defense, acquisitions and patent amortization. Research and development expenses Selling and marketing expenses General and administrative expenses

10 Customers Entertainment Producers and Distributors

11 Customers Software Publishers Enterprise End-Users

12 Competition Entertainment Producers and Distributors –Video Technology – No significant competitor –Music Technology & PC Games Technology – Compete with Microsoft, Sony, IBM etc. Software Publishers –Enterprise End-Users

13 Competitors MVSNMSFTRNWKIndustry Market Cap:1,450293,8301,890120.98 Price28.35 Revenue (ttm):234.4845,350353,26048.49 Gross Margin (ttm):85.41%82.16%70.10%58.14% EBITDA (ttm):73.6818,780-23.152.47 Oper Margins (ttm):15.15%39.38%-14.85%0.06% Net Income (ttm):20.9312,940401.55-93.62 EPS (ttm):0.3991.2512.233N/A P/E (ttm):71.0823.895.2532.34 PEG (5 yr expected):1.391.490.961.49 P/S (ttm):6.356.485.282.5 # Shares51.259,830161.6

14 Income Net Revenues Net Income

15 Revenue by Division

16 Du Pont Analysis 20012002200320042005 Equity Multiplier1.081.091.121.141.16 Total Asset Turnover0.290.310.330.400.41 Profit Margin19.42%11.82%20.99%20.17%10.88% ROE6.03%4.07%7.83%9.22%5.17%

17 Stock Performance

18 Stock Performance (cont.)

19 Modeling and Forecasting Discounted Cash Flow 3 Scenario: –Base-case –Downside Base-case segments’ revenues – 10% Adjusted Cost of Goods Sold –Upside Base-case segments’ revenues + 10% Relative Comparable Analysis

20 DCF Analysis Assumptions –Beta: 1.26 –Risk Free Rate: 4.58% –Market Risk Premium: 6.42% –CAPM: 14.15% –Cost of Debt: 8.25% –Debt/(Debt+ Equity): 0.19% –Equity/(Debt+Equity): 99.81% –WACC Calculated: 12.66% Bloomberg: 11.98% –Growth Rate: 5% DCF Value per share: –Calculated WACC: Base: $28.95 Downside: $24.21 Upside: $35.70 –Bloomberg WACC Base: $32.33 Downside: $27.03 Upside: $39.89

21 Relative Comparable Analysis Comparison Companies: –Microsoft –Real Network Average MultiplesMVSN RatioPrice Average P/E14.57Earning0.405.81 Average PEG1.225Earning (G)51.1462.64 Average P/S5.88Sales4.4626.25

22 Sensitivity Analysis

23 Correlation Matrix

24 Recommendation Hold –Reason: The current price of $27.84 is still between the range of $23 - $35 Nature of the business – still growing Negative Correlation with some of the holdings


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