NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed (SPC, OUN, NSSL) Objectives – Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective weather –

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

Advertisements

Storm Prediction Center Highlights NCEP Production Suite Review December 3, 2013 Steven Weiss, Israel Jirak, Chris Melick, Andy Dean, Patrick Marsh, and.

SPC Potential Products and Services and Attributes of Operational Supporting NWP Probabilistic Outlooks of Tornado, Severe Hail, and Severe Wind.

User Perspective: Using OSCER for a Real-Time Ensemble Forecasting Experiment…and other projects Currently: Jason J. Levit Research Meteorologist, Cooperative.

Travis Smith NSSL / OU / CIMMS The Hazardous Weather Testbed / Experimental Warning Program.

NOAA’s National Weather Service 2009 President’s Budget Rollout Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator & Director, National Weather Service National Weather.

Introduction to The Hazardous Weather Testbed Norman, Oklahoma.

STEPS Severe Thunderstorm and Precipitation Studies May-July 2000.

Travis Smith (OU/CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center

Hazardous Weather Testbed / Storm Prediction Center 2011 Spring Experiment Chris Siewert Proving Ground Liaison OU-CIMMS / SPC.

Roll or Arcus Cloud Squall Lines.

Tara Jensen for DTC Staff 1, Steve Weiss 2, Jack Kain 3, Mike Coniglio 3 1 NCAR/RAL and NOAA/GSD, Boulder Colorado, USA 2 NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center,

Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorological Division / ESSL / NCAR WRF (near) Real-Time High-Resolution Forecast Using Bluesky Wei Wang May 19, 2005 CISL User.

Evaluation and Comparison of Multiple Convection-Allowing Ensembles Examined in Recent HWT Spring Forecasting Experiments Israel Jirak, Steve Weiss, and.

Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Science Infusion 1.

The National Severe Storms Laboratory Jeff Kimpel, Director NSSL NOAA Science Advisory Board Norman, Oklahoma November 5, 2002.

17 July 2006Summer WAS*IS 2006Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL CIMMS / University of Oklahoma NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory Decision Assistance.

Warn on Forecast Briefing September 2014 Warn on Forecast Brief for NCEP planning NSSL and GSD September 2014.

Forecasting in a Changing Climate Harold E. Brooks NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory (Thanks to Andy Dean, Dave Stensrud, Tara Jensen, J J Gourley,

1 FY10-14 Planning. 2 Vision for 2015 NOAA is closer to its customers and better able to respond to severe events. NOAA information is routinely incorporated.

Toward a 4D Cube of the Atmosphere via Data Assimilation Kelvin Droegemeier University of Oklahoma 13 August 2009.

1 The WRF Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Bob Gall A facility where the NWP research and operational communities interact to accelerate testing and.

GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at the NWS Storm Prediction Center Dr. Russell S. Schneider Chief, Science Support Branch NWS Storm Prediction Center.

GOES-R Proving Ground GOES-R Proving Ground Demonstration of Imagery Products at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and Hazardous Weather Testbed Chris Siewert.

GOES-R Proving Ground Storm Prediction Center and Hazardous Weather Testbed Chris Siewert 1,2, Kristin Calhoun 1,3 and Geoffrey Stano OU-CIMMS, 2.

1 CIMSS Participation in the Development of a GOES-R Proving Ground Timothy J. Schmit NOAA/NESDIS/Satellite Applications and Research Advanced Satellite.

Collaborating on the Development of Warn-On-Forecast Mike Foster / David Andra WFO Norman OK Feb. 18, 2010 Mike Foster / David Andra WFO Norman OK Feb.

Overview of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Precipitation/Flash Flood Products/Services Michael Eckert

HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment: History and Success Dr. Adam Clark February 25, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.

NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) Steven Weiss (SPC) and Jack Kain (NSSL)

Joe Klemp National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado Convection Resolving NWP using WRF.

Performance of the Experimental 4.5 km WRF-NMM Model During Recent Severe Weather Outbreaks Steven Weiss, John Kain, David Bright, Matthew Pyle, Zavisa.

3 rd Annual WRF Users Workshop Promote closer ties between research and operations Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and assimilation system   Design.

1 Development of a convection- resolving CONUS ensemble system (aka: Warn on Forecast) Presented By: Lou Wicker (NSSL) Contributors Geoff DiMego (NCEP)

1 5. Overview of DTC Status and Annual Operating Plan WRF Executive Oversight Board Meeting 2 30 July 2004.

NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast Project Dr. Lou Wicker February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.

1 11/25/2015 Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Bob Gall June 2004.

SPC Ensemble Applications: Current Status, Recent Developments, and Future Plans David Bright Storm Prediction Center Science Support Branch Norman, OK.

2nd Workshop on Severe Weather Technology The Future of the HWT Experimental Warning Program (or “What happens next?”) Travis Smith OU / CIMMS / NSSL.

1 Current and Future needs of Numerical Weather Prediction Guidance at the NOAA Aviation Weather Center Jason Levit Techniques Development Meteorologist.

NOAA Intra-Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (ISIP) and Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA) Jin Huang NOAA Office of Global Programs November.

Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/NSSLSpring 2009EWP Spring Experiment - Orientation 1 CIMMS / University of Oklahoma 2 NWS MDL 3 NSSL 4 NWS WFO OUN Location: National.

INFORMATION EXTRACTION AND VERIFICATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING Israel Jirak, NOAA/Storm Prediction Center Chris.

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): Overview, Plans and Early Impressions of a Proposed High-Impact Weather Forecasting Paradigm.

Adaptive Observation Techniques ENSEMBLE TRANSFORM KALMAN FILTER SINGULAR VECTORS Sensitive areas for adaptive sampling include both the hurricane core.

Training Framework for Satellite User Readiness in NOAA AMS th Conference on Satellite Meteorology & Oceanography LeRoy Spayd & Anthony Mostek.

Travis Smith Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Nowcasting Applications.

R2O and O2R between NSSL and SPC: The benefits of Collocation Jack Kain, Steve Weiss, Mike Coniglio, Harold Brooks, Israel Jirak, and Adam Clark.

New Products and Services at the Storm Prediction Center Dr. Russell S. Schneider Dr. Joseph T. Schaefer Dr. David R. Bright Steven J. Weiss Andy R. Dean.

Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction and Data Assimilation Research At CAPS Ming Xue Director Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms and.

Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Technology Transfer NOAA – Earth System Research Laboratory Steve Albers, Brent Shaw, and Ed Szoke LAPS Analyses.

CAPS Realtime 4-km Multi-Model Convection-Allowing Ensemble and 1-km Convection-Resolving Forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2009 Spring.

Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 Nearcasting Severe Convection.

Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Technology Transfer NOAA – Earth System Research Laboratory Steve Albers, Brent Shaw, and Ed Szoke LAPS Analyses.

DET Module 1 Ensemble Configuration Linda Wharton 1, Paula McCaslin 1, Tara Jensen 2 1 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO 2 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 3/8/2016.

1 Where the Rubber Meets the Road: Testbed Experiences of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center David Novak 1, Faye Barthold 2, Mike Bodner 1, and.

HWT Experimental Warning Program: History & Successes Darrel Kingfield (CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Component of the 2011 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment David Novak 1, Faye Barthold 1,2, Mike.

Operational Use of Lightning Mapping Array Data Fifth Meeting of the Science Advisory Committee November, 2009 Geoffrey Stano, Dennis Buechler, and.

CAPS Realtime 4-km Multi-Model Convection-Allowing Ensemble and 1-km Convection-Resolving Forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2009 Spring.

Travis Smith U. Of Oklahoma & National Severe Storms Laboratory Severe Convection and Climate Workshop 14 Mar 2013 The Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely.

A few examples of heavy precipitation forecast Ming Xue Director

Hydrometeorological Predication Center

CAPS is one of the first 11 NSF Science and Technology (S&T) Centers

Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) Briefing by Ming Xue, Director CAPS is one of the 1st NSF Science and Technology Centers established.

High resolution radar data and products over the Continental United States National Severe Storms Laboratory Norman OK, USA.

Keith A. Brewster1 Jerry Brotzge1, Kevin W

CAPS Mission Statement

CAPS Real-time Storm-Scale EnKF Data Assimilation and Forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments: Towards the Goal.

Science of Rainstorms with applications to Flood Forecasting

Presentation transcript:

NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed (SPC, OUN, NSSL) Objectives – Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective weather – Enhance collaboration between researchers and forecasters on topics of mutual interest through real-time forecasting and evaluation activities during active severe weather – Provide for efficient testing and subsequent delivery of program results to NWS operations Disciplined Collaboration to Advance Forecast Operations

Primary Objectives of EFP Spring Experiment 2008 (Experimental Forecast Program) Test and refine a real-time, large domain convection-allowing Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) Explore the relative impact of assimilating radar reflectivity and velocity data into SSEF members Determine strengths and limitations of the ensemble configuration Test ways to extract information from the SSEF and deterministic WRF models Develop product display techniques that provide forecasters with probabilistic guidance Transfer SSEF guidance products to SPC forecaster workstations Assess the utility of high resolution convection-allowing deterministic WRF models Explore relationship between model forecasts of convective storms and the mesoscale environment Test the NCAR-WRF-3DVAR data assimilation system Test new objective verification measures Provide focused feedback to model developers on performance severe thunderstorm episodes

Primary Objectives of EWP Spring Experiment 2008 (Experimental Warning Program) Operational evaluation of the phased array radar (PAR) Operational evaluation of networked 3-cm radars (CASA) in Central Oklahoma Operational evaluation of experimental high temporal and spatial resolution gridded hazard information (a.k.a. gridded probabilistic warnings)

CAPS 4-km 10-member ensemble Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center CAPS 2-km run Sensitivity to horizontal grid spacing 3 Separate WRF forecasts (Different Model Physics) NCAR 3-km EMC 4-km NSSL 4-km Slightly Different Domains CAPS 4-km domain for Ensemble 2007 & 2008 HWT Experimental Forecast Program (EFP)

4km NCAR WRF4.5 km NMM WRF 2 km CAPS WRFRADAR VERIFICATION

Probability of a Linear Configuration of Thunderstorms (e.g., a Squall Line) Simulated Reflectivity Cores (> 40 dBz) from Different Ensemble Members.

NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED SPC-NSSL Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) Spring Experiment FY-1996: Winter Weather Short Term Forecasts (NSSL, WFO OUN ) –ARPS Evaluation (NSSL, CAPS, WFO OUN) FY-1997: Winter Short Term Advisories (NSSL, WFO OUN) –SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX) FY-1998: Fire Weather –SAMEX - ensemble forecasting (NSSL, EMC, CAPS...) –MEaPRS - MCS, Dual Polarity Radar, Electrification (NSSL, NCAR, etc.) –SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX) FY-1999: Fire Weather (NSSL) –SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX) –Probabilistic Convective Outlook (NSSL) –STEP - cloud electrification in Kansas (NSSL, OU, NCAR) FY-2000: Convective Initiation (NSSL, FSL, EMC) FY-2001: Watch Lead Time (NSSL, FSL, EMC, ISU) –PTEX - precipitation type (NSSL, HPC) FY-2002: IHOP- impact of moisture pattern on convective development (NSSL, etc) –Operational & Experimental NWP Evaluation (NSSL, EMC, FSL) FY-2003: Operational use of Short Range Ensembles (NSSL, FSL, EMC, BMO... ) FY-2004: Use of High resolution WRF Model (NSSL, CAPS, NCAR, EMC, FSL) FY-2005: Three Ultra-High Resolution WRF to see Storm Structure (NSSL, CAPS, EMC,NCAR) –Operational Hi-RES WRF Window WRF in 2005 FY-2006 Operational Test and Evaluation of β-version WRF (NSSL) FY-2007 and member Ensemble of Cloud Resolving Models (CAPS)

NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED OUN-NSSL Experimental Warning Program (EWP) Experiment FY-1979 thru 1990: Many Joint Projects including –NEXRAD IOT&E II, JDOP, DOPLIGHT, COPS, MAPS, QED, STORMTIPE FY thru 1995: Modernization and Risk Reduction Project (FSL) –Experimental Forecast Facility FY-1994: VORTEX (NSSL, NSSFC) –Nowcast and Forecast Support FY-1996 thru 2001: WDSS Operational test and evaluation (NSSL) FY-2001: Weather Event Simulator (WES) Field Test (WDTB, FSL, SRH) FY-2002: Advanced AWIPS prototype project. (SRH) FY-2002 thru 2005: Operational test and evaluation of WDSS II radar display workstation. (NSSL) –Establish operational utility of Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) –Test 4D base radar data analysis tool with interactive dynamic cross-sections and CAPPIs FY-2003: JPOLE (NSSL), Enhanced Graphical Hazard Depiction (FSL) –Establish operational utility of polarimetric base moments and derived rainfall estimates –Refine FX-Connect application to construct graphical weather hazard graphics on AWIPS FY-2004: Develop Situation Awareness (SA) Display System (WDTB ) –First NWS SA Display FY-2005: Polarimetric radar sensitivity (FSL); multi-sensor Severe Weather Algorithm (NSSL) –operational impact of 3 dB sensitivity loss compared to WSR-88D –new hail diagnosis, “rotation tracks”, and 3D Lightning Mapping FY-2006 thru 2008 Impact of Potential New Systems (12-15 out-of-town forecasters) –Assess phased array radar, CASA 3cm radar network, gridded probabilistic warnings

HWT Growth Potential