Correlating aftershock sequences properties to earthquake physics J. Woessner S.Wiemer, S.Toda.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The rate of aftershock density decay with distance Karen Felzer 1 and Emily Brodsky 2 1. U.S. Geological Survey 2. University of California, Los Angeles.
Advertisements

Review of Catalogs and Rate Determination in UCERF2 and Plans for UCERF3 Andy Michael.
1992 M=7.3 Landers shock increases stress at Big Bear Los Angeles Big Bear Landers First 3 hr of Landers aftershocks plotted from Stein (2003)
Stress- and State-Dependence of Earthquake Occurrence: Tutorial 2 Jim Dieterich University of California, Riverside.
Using Induced Seismicity to Predict and Monitor Reservoir Permeability Pathways STRM LLC.
Earthquake swarms Ge 277, 2012 Thomas Ader. Outline Presentation of swarms Analysis of the 2000 swarm in Vogtland/NW Bohemia: Indications for a successively.
16/9/2011UCERF3 / EQ Simulators Workshop RSQSim Jim Dieterich Keith Richards-Dinger UC Riverside Funding: USGS NEHRP SCEC.
The trouble with segmentation David D. Jackson, UCLA Yan Y. Kagan, UCLA Natanya Black, UCLA.
Earthquakes and seismo-tectonics
Tidal triggering of earthquakes: Response to fault compliance? Elizabeth S. Cochran IGPP, Scripps.
New Multiple Dimension Stress Release Statistic Model based on co-seismic stress triggering Mingming Jiang Shiyong Zhou ITAG, Peking University
Stress, Strain, Elasticity and Faulting Lecture 11/23/2009 GE694 Earth Systems Seminar.
Geol 600 Notable Historical Earthquakes Finite fault rupture propagation rohan.sdsu.edu/~kbolsen/geol600_nhe_source_inversion.ppt.
Earthquake interaction The domino effect Stress transfer and the Coulomb Failure Function Aftershocks Dynamic triggering Volcano-seismic coupling.
Omori law Students present their assignments The modified Omori law Omori law for foreshocks Aftershocks of aftershocks Physical aspects of temporal clustering.
CONTRASTING SEISMIC RATES BETWEEN THE NEW MADRID AND WABASH VALLEY SEISMIC ZONES: STRESS TRANSFER OR AFTERSHOCKS? Miguel Merino, Seth Stein & Emile Okal.
Static stress changes-- Coulomb. Key concepts: Source faults Receiver faults Optimally oriented faults Assume receiver faults are close to failure Triggering.
Stress III The domino effect Stress transfer and the Coulomb Failure Function Aftershocks Dynamic triggering Volcano-seismic coupling.
Omori law The modified Omori law Omori law for foreshocks Aftershocks of aftershocks Physical aspects of temporal clustering.
 ss=  * +(a-b) ln(V/V * ) a-b > 0 stable sliding a-b < 0 slip is potentially unstable Correspond to T~300 °C For Quartzo- Feldspathic rocks Stationary.
Earthquake potential of the San Andreas and North Anatolian Fault Zones: A comparative look M. B. Sørensen Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen,
L Braile, 1/26/2006 (revised, Sept., 2009) What is Moment Magnitude?
If we build an ETAS model based primarily on information from smaller earthquakes, will it work for forecasting the larger (M≥6.5) potentially damaging.
Earthquake scaling and statistics
The Evolution of Regional Seismicity Between Large Earthquakes David D. Bowman California State University, Fullerton Geoffrey C. P. King Institut de Physique.
1 Fault Dynamics of the April 6, 2009 L'Aquila, Italy Earthquake Sequence Robert B. Herrmann Saint Louis University Luca Malagnini INGV, Roma.
Real-time application of Coulomb stress modelling and related issues By Suleyman S. Nalbant, Sandy Steacy & John McCloskey Geophysics Research Group, University.
Exploring Planet Earth Blind Thrust Fault Earthquake Rupture Animation (Northridge, 1994) Brad Aagaard, USGS
Seismic sources Seismology and the Earth’s Deep Interior Seismic moment and magnitude Fault scarps Elastic rebound Richter scale Energy of earthquakes.
Searching for Long Duration Aftershocks in Continental Interiors Miguel Merino, Seth Stein Northwestern University.
Agnès Helmstetter 1 and Bruce Shaw 2 1,2 LDEO, Columbia University 1 now at LGIT, Univ Grenoble, France Relation between stress heterogeneity and aftershock.
A functional form for the spatial distribution of aftershocks Karen Felzer USGS Pasadena.
Exploring the underlying mechanism of LURR theory Can Yin Supervisor: Prof. Peter Mora QUAKES, Department of Earth Sciences University of Queensland.
Fault activation and microseismicity in laboratory experiments Thomas Göbel Danijel Schorlemmer, Sergei Stanchits, Erik Rybacki Georg Dresen, Thorsten.
Response of the San Jacinto fault zone to static stress changes from the 1992 Landers earthquake M. Nic Bhloscaidh and J. McCloskey School of Environmental.
Ergodicity in Natural Fault Systems K.F. Tiampo, University of Colorado J.B. Rundle, University of Colorado W. Klein, Boston University J. Sá Martins,
Earthquake Predictability Test of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Method Yuehua Zeng, USGS Golden Office Zheng-Kang Shen, Dept of Earth & Space Sciences,
Faults and Earthquakes. Some faults become “locked” –Pressure pushes together the irregular walls of the fault; surfaces resist sliding Slip can’t occur.
Schuyler Ozbick. wake-up-call /
The January 2010 Efpalio earthquake sequence in Western Corinth Gulf: epicenter relocations, focal mechanisms, slip models The January 2010 Efpalio earthquake.
Karen Felzer & Emily Brodsky Testing Stress Shadows.
Coulomb Stress Changes and the Triggering of Earthquakes
U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey The Earthquake is Inevitable: The Disaster is Not.
A. Pınar, D. Kalafat, C. Zülfikar Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute.
2. MOTIVATION The distribution of interevent times of aftershocks suggests that they obey a Self Organized process (Bak et al, 2002). Numerical models.
INCORPORATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE, PROPAGATION PATH AND SITE UNCERTAINTIES INTO ASSESSMENT OF LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL Bob Darragh Nick Gregor Walt Silva.
1 Producing Omori’s law from stochastic stress transfer and release Mark Bebbington, Massey University (joint work with Kostya Borovkov, University of.
Can we forecast an Earthquake??? In the next minute there will be an earthquake somewhere in the world! This sentence is correct (we have seen that there.
A Post-Loma Prieta Progress Report on Earthquake Triggering by a Continuum of Deformations Presented By Joan Gomberg.
Evaluation of simulation results: Aftershocks in space Karen Felzer USGS Pasadena.
The rupture process of great subduction earthquakes: the concept of the barrier and asperity models Yoshihiro Kaneko (Presentation based on Aki, 1984;
The Snowball Effect: Statistical Evidence that Big Earthquakes are Rapid Cascades of Small Aftershocks Karen Felzer U.S. Geological Survey.
A proposed triggering/clustering model for the current WGCEP Karen Felzer USGS, Pasadena Seismogram from Peng et al., in press.
California Earthquake Rupture Model Satisfying Accepted Scaling Laws (SCEC 2010, 1-129) David Jackson, Yan Kagan and Qi Wang Department of Earth and Space.
Brittle failure occurs within “seismogenic zone” defined by fault properties Typically 15 km for vertical strike slip faults ~30-50 km for subduction zone.
Applying Statistical Seismology to Image the Physical Properties of the Crust Egill Hauksson, Caltech, Pasadena, CA Presented at Statsei9 in Potsdam,
Jiancang Zhuang Inst. Statist. Math. Detecting spatial variations of earthquake clustering parameters via maximum weighted likelihood.
Yan Y. Kagan Dept. Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA ,
Analysis of ground-motion spatial variability at very local site near the source AFIFA IMTIAZ Doctorant ( ), NERA Project.
What is characteristic about a characteristic earthquake? Implications from multi-scale studies of the relative earthquake size distribution Stefan Wiemer.
Future Directions and Capabilities of Simulators Jim Dieterich
Back Analysis on Mag 2.4 along De Hoek Structure Moab Khotsong Mine
Kinematic Modeling of the Denali Earthquake
Václav Vavryčuk Institute of Geophysics, Prague
學生:林承恩(Cheng-en Lin) 指導老師:陳卉瑄(Kate Huihsuan Chen)
RECENT SEISMIC MONITORING RESULTS FROM THE CENTRAL
Southern California Earthquake Center
From Parsons et al (2001).
Principal Stress rotates to EW direction
by Naoki Uchida, Takeshi Iinuma, Robert M
Presentation transcript:

Correlating aftershock sequences properties to earthquake physics J. Woessner S.Wiemer, S.Toda

S1 S2 S3 S1 S2 S3Motivation Landers, 1992 Big Bear, 1992 Hector Mine, 1999 Mc = 2.1±0.18 b = 1.28±0.16 Mc = 1.5±0.11 b = 0.73 ± 0.04 Stress tensor heterogeneity b-value diversity Wiemer et al. (2002)

Motivation S1S1 S2S2 S3S3 M W =7.3, Landers, 1992 Misfit angle ß [deg] Longitude [deg] Latitude [deg] S1S1 Background orientation : S 1 N7°E Emerson-Camp Rock Homestead valley Johnson valley Homogeneo us Heterogeneo us ß > 45° Rotation of maximum principal stress axis (S1)

Aftershock activity – Local stress field 1.Relate b-values to stress field heterogeneity ß: H 1 : Stress tensor heterogeneity correlates positively with b-values 2.Investigate spatio-temporal behavior of the local stress field using aftershock focal mechanisms: H 2 : Stress tensor heterogeneity decreases with time

Aftershock activity – Local stress field 3.Evaluate Heterogeneous Post Seismic Stress Field Hypothesis (Michael et al., 1990) : H 3 : The rotation of the stress tensor axis correlates with regions of high slip and readjusts with time to the regional stress field 4.Introduce conceptual model

Study Regions and Data Sets  1983 Coalinga  1989 Loma Prieta  1992 Landers  1994 Northridge  1999 Hector Mine  SCSN: - Parametric earthquake catalogs from SCEDC - Fault Plane Solution catalog (FPS)  NCSN: - Parametric earthquake catalogs from NCEDC - Fault Plane Solution catalog (FPS) Study RegionsData Sets

Method  Spatial and temporal analysis of the magnitude of completeness Mc (Woessner & Wiemer, 2005)  Spatial and temporal mapping of b-values LogN = a – bM (M ≥ Mc)  Spatial and temporal mapping of stress tensor (Michael, 1984; Gephart, 1984): determination the stress tensor axis orientation and heterogeneity

Measures of Heterogeneity Stress tensor variance: Describes the fit of the observed focal mechanism to a homogeneous stress tensor. High variance => high heterogeneity of the stress field! ß Angular misfit ß: Angular misfit between the slip direction from the aftershock and the uniform stress tensor perfectly fitting the main shock FM (Michael, 1984, 1987, 1990) S1 S2 S3 Summary: Measures are equivalent and scale linearly heterogeneou s

Stress tensor heterogeneity – b-value H 1 : Stress tensor heterogeneity correlates positively with b-values Is the heterogeneity related to the b- value distribution?

Landers: Magnitude of completeness Emerson – Camp Rock fault Homestead valley fault Johnson valley fault Northern part: Catalog complete for larger magnitudes Southern part: Catalog complete to small magnitudes

Stress tensor heterogeneity – b-value S1S1 S2S2 S3S3 b = 1.13± 0.08 b = 0.73± 0.03 M W =7.3, Landers, 1992

Stress tensor heterogeneity – b-value Downdip distance [km] Along strike distance [km] Slip [cm] b-value Misfit angle ß N S Emerson – Camp Rock fault Homestead valley fault Johnson valley fault Wald & Heaton (1994)

Stress tensor heterogeneity – b-value From Map From Cross-section Positive correlation: high b-values – high misfit angle! But only seen for Landers

Correlation for Other Events Coalinga 1983 Loma Prieta 1989 Hector Mine 1999 Coalinga: positive correlation Loma Prieta: ambiguous Hector Mine: ?

Temporal dependence of ß H 2 : Stress tensor heterogeneity decreases with time What is the temporal dependence of the stress tensor heterogeneity ßand the rotation of S1)? What is the temporal dependence of the stress tensor heterogeneity ß (and the rotation of S1)? How does it compare to the aftershock sequence duration?

Temporal dependence: Landers Prior to Landers Post Landers months Homogeneous! Heterogeneous! Emerson / Camp rock fault Pre-mainshockTime series Post- mainshock ß=30° ß=78°

Temporal dependence: Coalinga / Loma Prieta Coalinga, 1983 Loma Prieta, 1989

Aftershock sequence duration: T a Landers: Emerson-Camp RockCoalinga T a  25.2–63.2y T a  17.1– 27.2y Loma Prieta T a  8.8– 11.7y

Summary 1.H 1 : Positive correlation of b and ß only for the Landers event a.Probably not the fundamental relation Differential stress (Schorlemmer et al., 2005) 2.H 2 : Stress tensor heterogeneity decreases with time a.Seen for all events b.Time-scale is smaller than aftershock sequence duration c.Results support the HPSSF-hypothesis

Main shock slip – Stress field : The rotation of the stress tensor axis correlates with regions of high slip and readjusts with time to the regional stress field H 3 : The rotation of the stress tensor axis correlates with regions of high slip and readjusts with time to the regional stress field How are the stress field heterogeneity and the rotations of the maximum stress axis S1 related to main shock slip?

Main shock slip - Stress tensor heterogeneity Morgan Hill (1984) Parkfield (2004) Morgan Hill (1984) Parkfield (2004) No heterogeneity observed! Heaton & Hartzell (1988)C. Ji (2005)

Main shock slip - Stress tensor heterogeneity Loma Prieta (1989) Beroza (1991)

Main shock slip - Stress tensor heterogeneity N S Downdip distance [km] Along strike distance [km] Slip [cm] Misfit angle ß Emerson – Camp Rock fault Homestead valley fault Johnson valley fault Landers (1992)

Conceptual model Longitude [deg] Latitude [deg] S 1 = without coseismic stress change (N7°E) S 1 = with coseismic stress change S 1 [East of North] Stress tensor inversionCoulomb stress transfer model

Conclusion & Outlook  Results support the HPSSF-hypothesis  Case studies show difference between small and large ruptures More quantification needed! Possibilities of conceptual model:  Constrain absolute size of regional background stress field Homogeneous with slight variations  Explain temporal rotation depending on loading process: viscoelastic relaxation?