12/5/20151 Coachella Valley 2010 Now What? John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.

After Losing 8.36 Million Jobs … U.S. Job Creation Is Crawling Back

! Consumers Confidence Decaying Again! = Normal

12/5/20154 So. CA Job Change, e -488, , %

12/5/20155 Inland Empire Job Change, e +20, , %

12/5/20156 Coachella Valley, Job Changes 1,879 14, %

12/5/20157 Worst National Unemployment Rates

12/5/20158 “ ” not U or V Shape of Recovery?

12/5/20159 What About the Future? … Look At The Economic Base

Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

Economic Base 12/5/ Construction Hotels & Conventions Tourism Tourist Shoppers Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing

12/5/ Existing Homes Sales Headed For A Record in 2010 … Thanks To Short Sales/ Foreclosures 7.3%

New Homes Sales Headed For A Record in 2010 … Thanks To Short Sales/ Foreclosures 12/5/201513

12/5/ Existing Home Price Rebound To 2003 Level 30.5%

12/5/ New Home Price Back To Level … Just Above Existing Homes

12/5/ Coachella Valley Housing Permits At Modern Low … Can’t Build At These Prices

12/5/ , % 42,607 Traded of 97,471 Total (43.7%) 31,995 31,995 Drained Equity 74, % 74,562 Problem Homes of 97,471 Total (76.5%) 46.6% County Average Notices of Default 46.6% County Average Notices of Default 34,746 Notices of Default Filed (estimate) 39,816 Where Are They? Supply: Upside Down Homes

Somebody Has To Take A Major Hit! Homeowners Lose Their Homes Lenders Lose Part of Their Investments Mortgage Backed Security Owners Lose Part of Their Investments Taxpayers Subsidize One of the Above Until This Happens … We Don’t Have A Recovery!

12/5/ Isn’t There Any Good News? Yes!

12/5/ Supply & Demand Demand From Lower Prices Supply From Foreclosures vs.

Price Stability? Riverside Co.San Bernardino Co. May$180,000 $137,000 June$185, %$140, % July$185, %$140, % August$190, %$145, % Sept.$183, %$150, % Oct.$190, %$150, % Nov.$200, %$160, % Dec.$196, %$154, % Jan-10$195, %$150, % Feb.$190, %$144, % Mar.$198, %$152, % Apr.$195, %$150, % May$210, %$160, % June$210, %$160, % July$200, %$155, % August$200, %$158, % Sept.$200, %$160, %

Assessed Valuation UP … Next Move Is UP!

12/5/ Demand Soaring CV Housing Affordability Sets A Record & Drives Demand 62% 10% 53% 55%

Competitive Housing Prices 12/5/201524

DoneConstTotal Palm Springs-Cath. Cty, DHSprgs.170 Rancho Mirage8715 Palm Desert62127 Indian Wells-La Quinta Indio-Coachella /5/2015 Limited New Home Supply, 2 nd -2010

Economic Base 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & Conventions Tourism Tourist Shoppers Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing

Hotel Rates, A Weak Pulse 12/5/ Corporate Meetings & Conventions Still Missing

Airport Volume Increasing 12/5/ Wishing For More Flights Like Phoenix-Scottsdale

Car Rental Activity On & Near Airport 12/5/ Tourists … Not Business Travelers?

12/5/ Transit Occupancy Tax: Palm Springs 12.7% -1.1% -0.4% -11.9% 4.8% 21.6% 13,024,611 14,677,511 14,521,402 14,466,704 12,751,478 13,367,685 FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11 July/Aug. Note: FY 2011 Based On July-August Source: City of Palm Springs Transit Occupancy Tax Palm Springs, FY 2005 to FY 2011 ytd Cold Weather In So. California Helped!

Increased Tourist Options: Possible Thermal Motor Sports Park 12/5/201531

Retail Sales … Finally Some Life 12/5/201532

12/5/ Retail Sales By City

Economic Base 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD- TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing

High Value Crops 12/5/201535

Agricultural Production 12/5/ When Construction Recovers … Will Need The “AgJobs” Temporary Visa Program

Economic Base 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD- TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing

Clean Energy Initiatives 12/5/ Demand Property Assessed Clean Energy Financing (PACE) Palm Desert Municipal Program AB 811 Net Metering Development Skill Training To Work In the Industry Electric Vehicle Production

Economic Base 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative Arts Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing

Creative Arts 12/5/201540

Major Films & Important Commercials Are Already Shot in the Coachella Valley 12/5/ Value of Filming Activity Coachella Valley Coachella ValleyRiverside Co.Share 2006$11,892,591$24,225, % 2007$10,174,750$15,336, % 2008$11,705,000$13,551, % 2009$4,732,000$9,639, % $38,504,341$62,752, % Assumes Coachella Valley equal to lowest share of Source: Inland Empire Film Commission

Opportunities Exist: 12/5/ Coachella Valley Has Always Been A Hollywood Playground Films & Commercials Are Already Shot In the Valley Major Venues Already Require Skilled Technicians Major Entertainment & Film Related Events Already Take Place Relationships With Key Arts & Entertainment Leaders Already Exist Its Time To Take The Next Step & Seriously Become A Center For the Creative Arts

Economic Base 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing

Logistics Links 12/5/201544

Key Transportation Links 12/5/ To East To Mexico To East & Mexico

Distribution 12/5/201546

Economic Base 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- DistributionC+ Health Care Retirees Manufacturing

Facilities & Medical Staff 12/5/201548

Health Care Employment 12/5/201549

Age Distribution 12/5/201550

Economic Base 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- DistributionC+ Health CareA- Retirees Manufacturing

Is the Past … the Future? 12/5/201552

Active Baby Boomer Retirees 12/5/ Now This No Longer Just This

Economic Base 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- DistributionC+ Health CareA- RetireesA Manufacturing

Manufacturing Jobs Back Below 1997 Level 12/5/201555

Setting Conditions For The Future 12/5/ ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsD TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC- AgricultureB Clean TechC+ Creative ArtsB- DistributionC+ Health CareA- RetireesA ManufacturingD- Over All Grade C-

Other Key Current Facts … 12/5/201557

12/5/ Growth Has Slowed

12/5/ Academic Performance

12/5/ Adult Educational Level Economic Target: Educational Performance

12/5/ What Jobs Grew?

12/5/ Largest Employers

12/5/ Payroll Released Into Valley

12/5/ Crime Per 1,000 Residents

12/5/ , 2011 When Will “Normal” Start To Return? x 2012 If Mortgages Fixed! x x Not

12/5/