Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMOWCRP/WWRPAsian/IndianMonsoon U.S.ONR/NSFTCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMex TH08 PROBEX Extra observations and targeted observations to improve track prediction Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany

Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMOWCRP/WWRPAsian/IndianMonsoon U.S.ONR/NSFTCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMex TH08 PROBEX TCS-08, TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite validation, targeted observations

Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s JapanPalau Typhoon Landfall EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] WMOWCRP/WWRPAsian/IndianMonsoon U.S.ONR/NSFTCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts SoWMex TH08 PROBEX Extratropical transition, downstream impacts, targeted observations Additional Extratropical Transition Components at DLR and FZK, Germany

August-September 2008 Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in: tropical cyclone formation intensification Motion/track decay and/or ET Downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather on North America, Europe with research interests in tropical and midlatitude predictability tropical cyclones –Recurvature –ET intense extratropical cyclogenesis International Collaborators: U.S. (NSF, ONR), Germany, Japan, China, South Korea, Canada, France, U.K., Taiwan

PANDOWAE A new German research group for THORPEX PDP research Partners: Sarah Jones, Doris Anwender, Ulli Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier (University of Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe) Heini Wernli, Volkmar Wirth (University of Mainz) George Craig, Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Weissmann (DLR) Dieter Peters (Leibniz Institute for Atmospheric Physics) Conny Schwierz (University of Leeds) 2 Projects contributing directly to T-PARC (despite name of group!): 1) The impact of extratropical transition on downstream predictability (PI: Jones, 1 Postdoc, 3 Ph.D. students) Data denial and data impact studies for ET in collaboration with ECMWF Investigation of singular vectors targeted on tropical cyclones and their impact on ECMWF EPS forecasts TIGGE case studies with high resolution modelling Idealised modelling and PV inversion 2) Adaptive observing strategies for active airborne remote-sensing instruments (PI: Weissmann, 1 Ph.D. student) Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector

Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia TY Tokage, October 2004 Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

Adaptive observations and plane sequencing NRL Singular vector sensitivity for TY Man-Yi (2007) SV Graphic supplied by Dr. Carolyn Reynolds, NRL Monterey

TY Nabi TY Saola Impacts on Numerical Model Performance Hurricane Maria MOTIVATION: IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS The poleward movement of a tropical cyclone often results in a period of reduced forecast accuracy in operational numerical global weather prediction models

29/08 30/08 31/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09 Variability among ensemble members as a measure of the predictability downstream from an ET event Standard deviation among GFS ensemble members from the model integration initiated at 1200 UTC 6 September 2005 increases downstream of the extratropical transition of TY Nabi

Ex-TY Nabi Ex-TY Saola

200 hPa meridional wind anomalies Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response What are the primary mechanisms that determine whether a downstream response will occur?

Summary: Major Science Issues Mechanisms - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics - influence of TC structure - outflow - diabatic process and their impacts on the midlatitude flow - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics Tropical cyclone core region Tropical cyclone- midlatitude interface Midlatitude impact region

Summary: Major Science Issues Mechanisms - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics - influence of TC structure - outflow - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics Predictability (understanding and assessment) - Ensemble spread - Forecast error growth - Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response - Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle Predictability (increase) - Predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted observations - test new strategies and observational systems - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.

NRL P-3 all FL 150 OKO – 1 (33 o N,141 o E) 212 n mi 1 – 2 (30 o N, o E) 225 n mi 2 – 3 (31.5 o N, 146 o E) 232 n mi 3 – 4 (35 o N, o E) 315 n mi 4 – OKO 185 n mi 1169 n mi Drops at waypoints and 60 n mi intervals FALCON Mission in two stages with a re-fueling stop at MSJ RJSM 0030 UTC 15 July 2007 TY Man-Yi WC n mi decaying TC Core Satelliet validation mission RODN RJTA NRL P n mi ET Ridge Building, warm frontogenesis DLR Falcon Leg n mi TC outflow-Jet Interaction Leg 2: 1414 n mi TC outflow – Jet Interaction Potential Aircraft Sampling Strategy during Extratropical Transition

DRIFTSONDE DRIFTSONDE Released from Hawaii Altitude of hPa Approximately 7-9 days to drift over the Philippine Sea Dropsonde release controlled from Monterey, CA GUAM NSC Day Day 9 Driftsonde trajectories beginning 1 and 15 August and 1 September 2007.

Summary T-PARC and collaborating projects constitute a GLOBAL OPERATION Operations center, Monterey, CA Driftsonde center, Driftsonde release, Hawaii Aircraft locations, and aircraft operations centers Guam Japan Taiwan Okinawa

Japan, Atsugi, NAF Okinawa, Kadena AFB T-PARC Components Guam, Andersen AFB ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, FALCON TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005 Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation Tropical Measurements Tropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 Subtropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction TC Intensification and structure change Recurvature, initiation of ET