1. THORPEX Pat Harr Slides courtesy of Dave Burridge and Dave Parsons

2. OUTLINE THORPEX overview THORPEX- Pacific Regional Campaign (T-PaRC) Discussion

3. Science and Implementation Plans www.wmo.int/thorpex Four sub-programmes + TIGGE –Predictability and Dynamical Processes –Observing Systems –Data Assimilation and Observing strategies –Societal and Economic Applications First Science Symposium (Montreal,2004); Second Science Symposium (December, 2006)

4. THORPEX is a significant contribution towards the WMO effort to mitigate the effects of natural disasters THORPEX will fully realise the societal and economic benefits of improved weather forecast especially in developing and least developed countries extend the range of skilful weather forecasts of high impact weather up to 14 days and beyond Develop accurate and timely warnings in a form that can be readily used in decision-making support tools

5. ORGANISATION International committee structure for the science established Regional THORPEX Committees coordinate activities of regional groups of nations -North America (NARC), -Asia (ARC), -Europe (ERC), and -Southern Hemisphere (SHRC) The International Projects Office directs, coordinates and monitors activities

6. REGIONAL COMMITTEES The implementation of the international structure for THORPEX has revitalised activities in each region The ARC, ERC, NARC and the SHRC are now developing implementation plans for their THORPEX involvement A first draft of an African (mainly north of the equator) THORPEX plan will be discussed in Niamey in January 2007 Development of a major international plan for a Pacific Regional Campaign (TPARC) and an integrated plan for European Regional Campaigns

7. A Major THORPEX deliverable is a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) End-to-end forecast system tuned for end users, using targeted observations called on in sensitive areas, adaptive data assimilation, probabilistic forecasting, grid computing and distributed archives accessible through a single entry point.

8. ATREC (2003) many groups are actively working with the data European ETReC – D-Phase (MAP), COPS THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC 2008) – cyclone tracks, extra-tropical transitions, tropical warm-pool physics and down-stream propagation (link to, Beijing Olympics & International Polar Year) Winter Olympics in Canada (2010) Tropical convection (2012) REGIONAL CAMPAIGNS Contributing to elements of a GIFS

9. Lothar (T L 255 rerun of operational EPS) 14 EPS members with greater intensity storms than verification

10. An enhanced collaboration on development of ensemble prediction, internationally and between operational centres and universities New methods of combining ensembles from different sources and of correcting for systematic errors (biases, spread over-/under-estimation) A deeper understanding of the contribution of observation, initial and model uncertainties to forecast error Real-time support for demonstration projects and field experiments Societal applications leading to increased benefits to society TIGGE – a major element of a GIFS

11. TIGGE Workshop (March 2006) Technical proposal for Phase 1 (global) developed by archive centres and agreed by ten potential providers (BMRC, CMA, ECMWF, FNMOC, JMA, KMA, Meteo- France, Environment Canada, NCEP, UKMO) CMA, ECMWF and NCAR (the three phase 1 archive centres) have been in close contact for some time and test data have been sent routinely from ECMWF to NCAR Access to the data base of global forecasts will be possible in Autumn 2006 TIGGE

12. With the WCRP Joint project to develop a unified approach to the development of high-resolution systems for weather prediction, seasonal forecasting and climate simulation With GEOSS Contribute to GEOSS societal benefit areas – for health, weather (TIGGE), agriculture and energy With IPY To improve the understanding of physical/dynamical processes in polar regions; utilise improved forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment With AMMA Involvement with the AMMA field campaign - results in stronger links for observing system experiments, modelling & predictability and societal and economic applications PARTNERSHIPS FOR RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

13. New Structure for the CAS Plan for WWRP comparable with that for WCRP

14. A Brief Overview Of The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Assembled By D. Parsons, P. Harr, and T. Nakazawa

15. THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Summer – Fall 2008 Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with hopes for some significant EU participation Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in: –tropical cyclone formation –intensification –Motion/track –decay and/or ET North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in –tropical and midlatitude predictability –tropical cyclones, –ET –intense extratropical cyclogenesis

16. T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Winter storms reconnaissance and driftsonde

17. Proposing Institutions According to Regional Chairs North America –US Academic Community: SUNY at Stony Brook, U. of Hawaii, Naval Post Graduate School, U. of North Carolina Charlotte, Pen. State, U. of Washington, U of Maryland, SUNY Albany, U of Miami, U of Wisconsin, Florida State U –US Research Institutions: NCAR, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/NWS, Naval Research Lab, NASA/Goddard –Canadian: U McGill, MSC and Others Asia –China: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Chinese Meteorological Administration plus members of the Academic Community in China –Japan: Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC), Kyoto U, Nagoya U, Tohoku U, Tsukuba U, U of Tokyo –Korea: Korean Meteorological Administration, Cheju National U, Ehwa Womans U, Kongju National U, Kyungpook National U, Seoul National U,Yonsei –Collaboration with an expanded DOTSTAR program Europe –Germany: U of Karlrsuhe, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR –Hopefully Met Centers (ECMWF, Meteo France, Met Office, etc) Note work with TIGGE will result in collaborations with all the world s global forecast centers.

18. Scientific Objectives 1)Advancing knowledge of the factors that limit the regional and downstream predictability of high-impact weather events (e.g, persistent deep convection, tropical cyclones, extratropical transition events, and other intense cyclogenesis events) that occur over the North Pacific, adjacent land areas and other downstream areas; 2) Improved understanding of forecast error growth and the role of scale interactions; 3) Developing, advancing, and evaluating data assimilation strategies in concert with superior utilization of satellite measurements with the goal of improving prediction of high-impact weather events both over the Pacific rim and downstream locations; 4) To quantitatively predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted observations and to test new strategies and observational systems for adaptive observing and modeling; What causes decreased predictability? How is predictability decreased? What is needed to prevent decreases in predictability?

19. 5) Testing the improvement in local and downstream forecast skill afforded by high-resolution, non-hydrostatic modeling of these high-impact weather events; 6) Improving the interpretation and utility of ensemble forecast systems; 7) Advancing knowledge of the dynamics that produce high impact weather events over the North Pacific and govern the downstream response to processes over the North Pacific and western Asia; 8) Understanding and improving societys response to weather disasters, including the appropriate use and evaluation of probabilistic information, and estimating the value to society that results from improvements in forecast skill. Scientific Objectives

20. ASIAN THORPEX Committee: supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

22. Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis

23. Percentages of Occurrence of OCCs, 2004 LTD TS ALL 8.3 6.7 51. 7 10. 0 23. 3 20. 0 6.7 60. 0 0.013. 3 6.9 10. 3 58. 6 3.420. 7 9.6 7.7 54. 8 6.721. 2 Courtesy of Bessho et al.

24. DOCC (left) vs. NOCC (right) Disappeared AMSU retrieved air temperature anomalies detect warm core in the earliest stages of organized convection for systems that become tropical cyclones --why and can this be predicted? Courtesy of Bessho et al. Error in the low-levels

25. Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges Prediction of Tropical Convection, Typhoon Genesis Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)

26. Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002 From Dave Parsons

27. Mn flood Wisc/Chi. flood Mei-Yu convection Wisc./Chi. flood event associated with the previous wave packet

28. Typhoon Tokage, After Killing Almost 100 People, is Worst in Japan in 25 Years; Japans 10 Typhoons in 2004 are Record for Worst Ever (Oct. 2004) Tokyo, Japan (HDW) October 23, 2004 - Typhoon Tokage ravaged Kyoto and Tokyo on Japans main islands, potentially killing almost 100 people. This typhoon is reported to be the worst since 1979, making it the worst in a generation. Japan has suffered through 10 typhoons this year, which makes this the worst typhoon season by far in Japans history. The 2004 season has also been the worst hurricane season on record for the State of Florida within the United States, and the worst typhoon season for the country of China within Asia. Researchers are still trying to setermine exactly what made this one of the worst seasons globally for cyclone activity. The picture above, taken by a NASA satellite, shows Typhoon Tokage devastating the Japanese main islands.Typhoon Tokage was originally expected to weaken, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC), as it tracked into cooler sea surface temperatures and sucked drier air into itself, but the storm maintained much of its strength as it moved through the ancient Japanese capital of Kyoto, and the modern Japanese capital of Tokyo. This typhoon was originally expected to lose power and spare major Japanese cities from the calamities of other typhoons that have hit Japan in this worst of Japanese typhoon seasons. Typhoon Tokage, however, caused great flooding and heavy rains, and many people are still missing. (http://www.hdweather.com/typhoon/typhoon_361.htm) Total Damages in public infrastructure(agriculture, Road, etc) by Typhoon and Heavy Rainfall in Japan this year are US $10 billion. Typhoon Tokage insurance claims are estimated at 88.5 billion Yen ($839 million). U. S. projects nationwide hurricane damages in 2004 at $850 million.

29. Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia TY Tokage, October 2004 Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

31. Westward Northward Ensemble Forecast for Tokage Initial: 8 day before landfall

35. Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET) Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle Latitude Cyclogenesis Events and Their Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide

36. The Arctic: A residence in Shishmaref, Alaska – A Direct Hit By Tokage After ET (Loss of Permafrost Coupled with Wave Actions) Courtesy of James Partain, NWS

37. 20 Oct 2004 27 Oct 2004 20 Oct 2004 27 Oct 2004 Major precipitation event on the west coast of North America at the timeTokage is making landfall on Japan Downstream Indirect Impacts

38. 200 hPa TY Tokage West coast rainfall event 20 October 200 hPa meridional wind anomalies 40 o -60 o N

40. TY Nabi TY Saola Impacts on Numerical Model Performance

41. 200 hPa meridional wind anomalies Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response

42. Ex-TY Nabi Ex-TY Saola

43. a c b d NOGAPS +120 0000 UTC 23 Sep 2005NOGAPS +00 0000 UTC 28 Sep 2005 GFS +120 0000 UTC 23 Sep 2005GFS +00 0000 UTC 28 Sep 2005 ForecastVerification 500 hPa heights TY SAOLA ForecastVerification NOGAPS GFS

44. Major Science Issues Mechanisms - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics - influence of TC structure - outflow - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics Tropical cyclone core region Tropical cyclone- midlatitude interface Midlatitude impact region

45. Major Science Issues Mechanisms - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics - influence of TC structure - outflow - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics Predictability (understanding and assessment) - Ensemble spread - Forecast difficulty - Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response - Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle Predictability (increase) - Data sampling strategies - adequate sampling of important physical characteristics - data platform types - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.

46. Forecast Skill Bifurcation ET Tracks From Jones et al., 2003: Wea. And Forecasting ETs are Common in the T-PARC Region With Decreased Hemispheric Predictability

47. TY Tokage http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/ TY Tokage A plume of increased std. dev. In the GFS ensemble prediction system propagates downstream of the extratropical transition forecast position. Downstream Impacts 1200 UTC October 2005

48. Different response to ET but similar reduction in forecast skill TY Nabi TY Saola

49. TY Nabi TY Saola Impacts on Numerical Model Performance Hurricane Maria MOTIVATION: IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS

50. Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET) Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle Latitude Cyclogensis Events and Their Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide Accurate Prediction of Tropical Convection, Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the Downstream Impacts via the Southern Wave Guide

51. Western WA flood (Seattle 1-day record) CA Wild Fires (downslope winds) BCs flood of the Century (18.5) A Series of Three Poorly Predicted Major Downstream Events Initiated by Tropical Convection Materials provided by L. McMurdie, M. Shapiro, and D. Parsons

53. Western WA Flood (Seattle 1-day record) CA Wild Fires (downslope winds) BCs flood of the Century (18.5) Region of tropical cyclones

54. Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET) Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle Latitude Cyclogensis Events and Their Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide Accurate Prediction of Tropical Convection, Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the Downstream Impacts via the Southern Wave Guide To Target or Not to Target That Is The Question! or is it When Do We Target and How (satellite, lidar winds or In-situ Sensing?

56. BST Observation RTN Operational GSM with dropsonde data with typhoon bogusing NDS Expriment 1 w/o dropsonde data with typhoon bogusing NTS Experiment 2 w/o dropsonde data w/o typhoon bogusing Typhoon centers are plotted 6-hourly. Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Track Forecasts

57. Guam, Anderson AFB Tropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, Aerosonde Subtropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, Okinawa, Kadena AFB Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, HIAPER, Aerosonde Japan, Yokota AFB Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005 T-PARC North American Components Extratropical Transition, Winter Storms and Downstream Impacts Tropical Measurements

58. T-PARC Tropical and ET Measurements: –Driftsondes Launch from Hawaii or suitable location 30 gondolas, 50 sondes/gondola Multiple heights to get broad coverage August-September 2008 –NRL P-3/ NCAR ELDORA/ GPS Dropwindsondes Operation from Anderson AFB, Guam and Kadena AFB, Okinawa Portion of 150 research hours (15 missions @ 10 h each ) Portion of 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission) –Other Components DOTSTAR Tibetan Plateau Observations Satellite: MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms

59. Simulated Driftsonde Trajectories (Supplied by W.-C. Lee and M.-D. Chou) Monsoon Depression: Pre-TY Robyn Guam Figures from Harr et al. (1996) NRL P-3 Strategy

61. T-PARC Extratropical Transition and Downstream Impacts: –Gulfstream-V High Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Operation from Yokota AFB, Japan 150 research hours (15 missions @ 10 h each) 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission) DLR Wind Lidar –NRL P-3/ NCAR ELDORA/ GPS Dropwindsondes Operation from Kadena AFB, Okinawa and Yokota AFB, Japan Portion of 150 research hours (15 missions @ 10 h each ) Portion of 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission) Other Components DOTSTAR Enhanced Siberian Observation network Korean/Japan contributions to Targeting Aircraft Satellite: MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms

62. From Klein et al. (2000) Components Tropical cyclone core region Tropical cyclone- midlatitude interface region Midlatitude impact region Downstream impacts may be forced by: Advection of vorticity by the divergent wind associated with remaining deep convection in the tropical cyclone core region Diabatic Rossby wave generation due to latent-heat release in an area of strong warm frontogenesis in the tropical cyclone midlatitude interface region Import of energy into the midlatitudes via interaction between the tropical cyclone outflow and the midlatitude jet in the midlatitude impact region.

63. NSF/NCAR HIAPER G-V Strategies Tropical Cyclone – midlatitude interface region Midlatitude impact region

64. T-PARC Winter Storms and Downstream Impacts Driftsondes Launch from two locations throughout Japan Missions at mutliple heights 30 gondolas with 30 sondes each 5-week period: Nov-Dec 2008 Other Components NOAA G-IV Shifted Westward toward Asia Hurricane Hunter Training flights in Central Pacific for the Winter Reconnaissance Program Enhanced Siberian Observation network Satellite: MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms

65. T-PARC: a global effort In the spirit of A-TREC, the North America and Asian Regional Committees encourage scientific participation from other regions Based on the Cardinali (ECMWF) and Weissmann (DLR) results, the DLR Doppler lidar on HIAPER is our highest (and currently only) observational system requested from the EU. It is a high priority for T- PARC, but may be difficult for us to fully fund. We have requested TIGGE in real-time for the field phase. We ask that the operational centers in the EU consider data impact and denial studies for T-PARC. We hope that some of the research expertise from the EU academic, operational and research laboratories become entrained into T-PARC in the areas of ET, Rossby wave dynamics, data assimilation and other fields. This is happening already and T-PARC, like other THORPEX efforts, will have a relatively open data policy.

66. T-PARC Status Science Plan Overview and the Experiment Design Overview submitted to NSF in January 2006 and received very strong scientific reviews –Includes letters-of-intent from approximately 30 investigators –Approved to allow submission of a detailed facility request document. Facility Request for NSF/EOL supported platforms submitted September 2006 International: –Funding in place for several components Canada ($100-150K for instrumentation, plus in-kind scientific support) : Korea DOTSTAR Tibetan Plateau Others to be defined at the Asian THORPEX meeting in October 2006. –Driftsonde –Observations for the 2008 Olympics –Korean or Japan airborne facilities

67. Discussion: –Further input from T-PARC countries –Suggestions to T-PARC Committee –Suggestions for other THORPEX tropical related priorities and activities –Thank you!