Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC National Stone, Sand & Gravel Association San Francisco, CA February 27, 2007
Commissioners Mary Peters Secretary of Transportation — Chairperson Jack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling — Vice Chair Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of Transportation Maria Cino Deputy Secretary of Transportation Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell University Steve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission Frank McArdle General Contractors Association of New York Steve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office Depot Patrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking Association Matt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad Tom Skancke CEO, The Skancke Company Paul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation
Statutory Mandate Study current condition and future needs of surface transportation system Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel tax Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons Report to Congress by January 1,2008
Field Hearings September 20-21, 2006Dallas, TX November 15 – 16, 2006New York, NY Memphis, TN February 21 – 22, 2007Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA April 18 – 19, 2007Chicago, IL Minneapolis, MN
System Maintenance
89% 91% 39% 48% 50% 52% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Acceptable Good Pavement Ride Quality National Highway System for 2004 Source: U.S. DOT
Bridge Conditions Bridge Deficiency Percentages Source: U.S. DOT
Transit System Conditions Source: U.S. DOT
Traffic Congestion
Highway Operational Performance Percent VMT Under Congested Conditions 25.9% 27.5% 29.6% 30.7% 31.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: U.S. DOT
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually Source: Texas Transportation Institute
Nearly half of the growth in total Transit Passenger Miles from 1995 to 2004 has come from the Heavy Rail mode. Motorbus Heavy Rail Commuter Rail Light Rail Demand Response VanpoolFerryboat 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: U.S. DOT Growth in Transit Ridership 23% Growth in Total Ridership from 1995 to 2004
Safety
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities Per 100 Million VMT Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
Safety: Transit Fatalities Fatalities per 100 Million PMT Fatalities per 100 Million PMT by Mode 248 Total Transit Fatalities in Motorbus Heavy Rail Commuter Rail Light Rail Source: U.S. DOT
Freight
1,437 6,165 (TEUs in thousands) Houston 13,101 LA/LB 1,010 2,152 Miami 2,043 3,382 Oakland 4,478 15,835 NY/NJ 1,809 5,566 Virginia 1,860 6,639 Charleston 1,662 9,420 Savannah 1,798 4,396 Tacoma 1,776 2,557 Seattle 59,420 Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade Volume of trade: 2004 and 2020 Source: U.S. DOT
More trade means more domestic freight movements… West region +65% South region +71% Central region +71% Northeast region +58% U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, % change %44%39%181%57% 10,700 17,296 2,009 2,891 1,054 1,470 13,772 21, Source: U.S. DOT (tons in millions)
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, % 1% 9% 3% 2% 0% 7% 3% 1% 40% 74% 67% 16% 40% 6% <1% 6% 2% 13% 3% TonsValueTon-Miles Percent s Truck Rail Water Air Pipeline Multiple Modes Other/Unknown Modes Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b. Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances
0 50, , , , , , , , Class I Railroads Track-Miles Owned Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads Rail Network Today Today’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design
Fuel Efficiency (“Energy Independence”)
U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles 1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG
International Fuel Economy Comparison Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards for new-sale light-duty vehicles Source: UC Berkeley
Finance
Estimated Highway and Transit Program Levels and HTF Account Balances* Dollars (in Billions) Highway Program Highway Balance Transit Program Transit Balance * Based on President’s 2006 Budget and 2006 Budget Mid Session Review revenue estimates Assuming Level Funding After 2009
Year 600 Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015) Year-of-Expenditure Dollars (in Billions) Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015) Revenue Cost to Maintain Cost to Improve National Funding Gap Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Fuel Tax Purchasing Power Is Eroding… Cents per Gallon Source: AASHTO
Street and highway construction costs have increased dramatically over the past few years * Table shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index rates over the past twenty years as indexed …While Construction Costs Are Increasing
State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax State Cents per Gallon NYCTMINVFLRIINOHMEWVIDORSDMDNDMNIANHDCTXVIMSNMOKNJAK CAILWIPAHIWANCMTNEGAKSUTMADECOARTNALLAVTAZKYMOSCWY Excise MFT Additional MFT Source: American Petroleum Institute As of April 2006
Recent Public Private Partnerships Source: Public Works Financing Project Location Intermodal Projects in Green Highway Projects in Blue Transit Projects in Yellow Reno Rail Corridor SR 125 Toll Road - Hudson Bergen Light Rail Line Chicago Skyway Asset Sale Dulles Greenway Miami Intermodal Center Central Texas Turnpike Pocahontas Parkway Camden Trenton Light Rail Line San Joaquin Hills Toll Road Foothill Eastern Toll Road Alameda Corridor -Trans Texas Corridor Denver E-470 Northwest Parkway NM 44 (US 550) Southern Connector Hiawatha Light Rail Line Jamaica JFK Airtrain Tacoma Narrows Bridge Osceola Parkway Las Vegas Monorail I-15 Reconstruction AZ-17 Indiana Toll Road Asset Sale CREATE
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