Warm Up: When is it ok to invade a country? Monday, March 10 th, Friday is the end of the Quarter!

Objective: 0 I will be able to predict what Russia will do next in the Crimean Conflict. Language Objective: 0 I will use a sentence stem to answer a question.

Vocabulary 0 Trade Pact – agreement between countries on terms of trade. 0 European Union - A group of European countries that participates in the world economy as one economic unit 0 Pawn - used by others for their own purposes. 0 The West – Europe and countries of European colonial history. 0 Autonomous region - self-governing region in terms of local issues. 0 Prime Minister – similar to a president 0 Breadbasket – area that is very fertile and produces more food than it needs for its people.

Soviet Union

Ukraine 0 Becomes part of the Soviet Union by Breaks away in 1991 when the Soviet Union dissolves. 0 Known as the breadbasket of Europe due to its fertile farmland.

Long Term Issues 0 The biggest nation separating the EU and Russia. 0 Often seen as a pawn between Russia and the West. 0 A geostrategic pipeline runs through the Ukraine. 0 Both the US and Russia have sought to influence events to their benefit. 0 Began in the Bush era. 0 Accelerated with Obama. 0 Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimea agreement permitted the fleet to stay until 2042.

Ukrainian Crisis 0 Started out as a protest over the handling of a trade pact with European Union. 0 A contentious election in 2010 saw pro-Russia candidate and former Prime Minister Yanukovych win with narrow margins over Prime Minister Tymoshenko. 0 Yanukovych won with strong support in the Eastern regions, with most regions in the West favoring Tymoshenko.

Ukrainian Revolution 0 November 2013 – the President refuses to sign a trade pact with the EU. 0 Had been promising for a year to sign it. 0 Would have created closer ties with the EU and generated economic growth. 0 Asks Russia for a $20 Billion loan. 0 Russia threatened to charge higher prices for gas is the Ukraine signed the trade deal with the EU. 0 Pro-EU Ukrainians began protesting, eventually forcing Yanukovych from office.

Crimea 0 Autonomous region of the Ukraine part of Soviet Union (Russia + 14 other countries Russia took over) voted to leave Russia and join with the Ukraine 0 Russia Black Fleet (Navy) stationed on Crimea – Russia gives out Russian passports to Crimean citizens (makes them citizens of Russia).

Russia Invades Crimea? 0 February 27 th, 2014, unidentified pro-Russian troops seize control. 0 Russia’s only year-round link to the Mediterranean Sea. 0 Has controlled a port in Crimea for 230 years. 0 Russia claims ethnic Russians were being mistreated. 0 There is no evidence of this. 0 March 16 th, 2014 – Crimea to vote on whether to join Russia or stay with the Ukraine. 0 Ukrainian Prime Minister declares the invasion an act of war.

Russia/Soviet Union 0 Georgia, Cross-border tensions with Russia exploded into a five-day conflict that saw Russian tanks and troops pour into the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as Georgian cities. 0 Russia and Georgia each blamed the other for starting the conflict 0 Russia still has control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. 0 Afghanistan, Soviet Union invades; fails to conquer.

Legal Issues 0 Russia has clearly recognized Ukraine and its present borders. This was confirmed in: 0 The Alma Ata Declaration of December 1991, which consigned the Soviet Union to history, 0 The Budapest memorandum of 1994, offering security guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for removing nuclear weapons from its territory 0 The 1997 agreement on the stationing of the Black Sea fleet in Crimean ports. 0 International Law says you cannot forcibly rescue foreigners declared nationals. 0 Russia says it was invited in by the former PM; becomes a non issue once he was forced out.

What Will Russia Do? 0 Use Force 0 Could easily defeat the Ukraine (Black Sea Fleet encircles 60% of the Ukraine). 0 Would be disruptive to industry, agriculture, oil and gas sales in the region for years. 0 Retreat 0 60% of Crimea speaks Russian 0 Only year-round warm water access to the Mediterranean 0 Retreat with conditions 0 Crimea becomes semi-independent 0 Gets a permanent agreement to keep the port in Crimea. 0 Advance into Ukraine 0 Shows the world that they are not to be messed with.

TOD 0 I predict that Russia will ________________________________.