EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought.

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Presentation transcript:

EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

Snow Water Equivalent By River Basin

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt Early snowmelt Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Snow Water Equivalent Mt. Hood Test Site Average So Far Last Year

Snow Water Equivalent Cascade Summit (Central Cascades) Average This Year Last Year

Snow Water Equivalent Wolf Creek (NE Mountains) Average This Year Last Year

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Drought Monitor May 29 th, 2012

Drought Monitor May 29 th, 2012

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Precipitation Probability June 2012

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August Dry July / August Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Precipitation Probability July, August, September

Temperature Probability July, August, September

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)

Fire Season Key Elements From NWCC Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Remains to be Seen Remains to be Seen Below normal snowpack - YES Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES Long term drought – YES (South Central) Long term drought – YES (South Central) Below normal June rainfall - No Below normal June rainfall - No Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Remains to be Seen Remains to be Seen

El Niño/La Niña Predictions Various Forecasting Techniques La Niña El Niño

El Niño/La Niña Predictions Various Forecasting Techniques

ENSO Neutral Summers 500mb Height

ENSO Neutral Summers 500mb Height Anomaly

ENSO Neutral Summers 850mb Temperature Anomaly

Analog Years El Niño/La Niña

Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth

Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth Pete Parsons

Analog Years El Niño/La Niña Paul Werth Pete Parsons Jim Little

EFCC Weather Outlook Bottom Line

EFCC Weather Outlook Bottom Line  In many respects a rather “average” summer  Driest areas east of Cascades  Driest months August and September  Best chances for dry lightning August and September

EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact Questions? Contact

EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact Questions? Contact

EFCC Weather Outlook 5 June 2012 Questions? Contact Questions? Contact