Final Version Dick Bolt Code 302 May 13-17, 2002 Micro-Arcsecond Imaging Mission, Pathfinder (MAXIM-PF) Mission Success

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 2 Summary  Mission Success  Even with Fully Redundant S/C buses, the continuing Phase I & II operation is expected to have low probability of completing the full four (4) Year mission  Design Considerations  Hub S/C  Recommend either redundant Laser ranger devices or Laser beams from at least (2) separate Laser devices of both wide & narrow beam  Detector S/C  Redundant design looks good  Free Flyer S/Cs  Redundant design looks good  Mission Success Alternatives  From a Reliability standpoint, other designs should be considered  Two separate Detector S/C (single string) with:  Single Hub S/C (Fully Redundant) with Free Flyers or:  Two separate Hubs ( single string ) without Free Flyers  R&S Support Cost  1 Million $ To support both Reliability & System Safety effort for at least 3 years

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 3 Assumptions  Mission Length  Phase I  Mission length to be 1 Yr with Phase II to follow. Six (6) Months to get in orbit  Phase II  Mission length to be 3 Yrs / 5 Year Goal  Total ( Phase I & II )  Four (4) Years with 5 Year Goal  Redundancy  Hub S/C –-Put Redundancy into Hub design & not Free Flyer  Detector S/C –Fully redundant design needed

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 4 S/C Components  Phase I  Lens S/C (Hub)  Tunable X-Ray Optical System  Star Tracker  S/C Bus  Propulsion System  ACS  Laser Ranger to Detector S/C  Six(6) attached Free Flyers acting as extra X-Ray reflectors  Detector S/C  RF Com to Earth  Propulsion System  ACS ##############################################  Phase II  Lens S/C (Hub)  Tunable X-Ray Optical System  Star Tracker  S/C Bus  Propulsion System  ACS  Laser Ranger  Detachable Lens sections ( 6 units )  Release Mech.  Tunable X-Ray Optical System  Detector S/C  Super Star Tracker  Cryo Cooler  RF Com to Earth  Propulsion System  ACS

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 5 Reliability Block Diagram Phase I Hub S/C Bus Detector S/C Bus FF Bus Hub Devices Detector Devices Launch Vehicle Delta IV Hydrazine Injection Propulsion System

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 6 Reliability Block Diagram Phase II Detector Devices Detector S/C Bus Hub Devices FF Bus Hub Tunable Mirrors Hub S/C Bus FF Laser Com FF #2 FF # 3 FF # 4 FF # 5 FF # 6 Free Flyer (FF #1) S/C #1 of 6 Detector S/C Hub S/C Launch Vehicle Delta IV Hydrazine Injection Propulsion System

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 7 Quick Mission Reliability Estimate  Phase I  Best Case Est. Mode I ( 2 Yr Mission ) 1? Without LV & Injector Prop. :.9 X.98 X.9 X.98 = 1 Yr With LV & Injector Prop.:.78 X.94 X.99 = 72 1 Yr  Phase I & II  Best Case Est. Mode I & II ( 4 Yr Mission Total ) Without LV & Injector Prop. :.9 X.95 X.9 X.95 = 4 Yrs With LV & Injector Prop.:.63 X.94 X.99 = 4 Yrs LV=Launch Vehicle

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 8 Launch Vehicle  Delta IV  94% Launch success Est. by Mfg.  Air Force committed to future launches  1st stage is new design  Hydrazine Propulsion L-2 Orbit Injection System  No Reliability info, assume similar to S/C Hydrazine propulsion system  99% or better

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 9 Deployments  Hub S/C  Laser Lens Cap  6 Detachable Free Flyers  Detector S/C  2 RF X-Band High Gain (dish) Antennas  Free Flyer S/Cs  None on S/C  Separation Systems  Separation of Hydrazine Propulsion Orbit Insertion System  Separation of Hub from Detector & attached Free Flyers  Separation of Six(6) separate Free Flyer units from the Hub

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 10 Full PRA Version Requirement Assumed Will likely include Fault Tree Success Diagram Full Reliability evaluation for both Spacecraft Bus & all Instruments Reliability GSFC Code 302 would likely play the coordinator of the operation even if an RSDO bus was chosen Instrument Reliability will likely be done by design & builder of each. System Safety GSFC Code 302 would likely play the coordinator of the Safety Data Package ( Only one(1) expected to cover all) even if an RSDO bus was chosen Cost Estimate: 1.0 Million $ Basis is: 1 FTE ( based on GSFC contractor $ ) for each discipline for 3 years. Likely more if GSFC Code 302 monitors or supervises coordination of effort by other contractors PRA Support & Costs Reliability & System Safety

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 11 Back-Up Slides See RSDO S/C Bus Reliability Information Graph

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 12 S/C Bus Reliability Curve Fully Redundant Single String RSDO S/C Bus Reliability For One (1) Year Mission Reliability % Failure Rate in Failures / Million Hrs

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 13 Single S/C 3 Year Bus Reliability Fully Redundant S/C Bus Single String S/C Bus Partially Redundant S/C Bus Area 3 Year Mission—Spacecraft Bus Only (Based On RSDO S/C Bus Reliability Info)

Final Version MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002 Goddard Space Flight Center Mission Success Page 14 RSDO S/C Bus Reliability For Four (4) Year Mission Fully Redundant S/C Bus area Reliability Failure Rate