Public Opinion & Political Socialization

Public Opinion How people think or feel about particular things Aggregate (sum) opinion of many “publics” (factions) Constitutional Checks: federalism, representative gov’t, separation of powers, Bill of Rights, independent judiciary

Measuring Public Opinion Poll: Survey of public opinion Ensuring Reliable Results: –Random Sample: Any voter/adult has = chance Choose participants from geo. units Make 15,000 phone calls, goal: reach 1500 people (will settle for 1,065) –Sampling Error Difference between 2 samples (±3% OK)

Polling Accuracy Respondent’s Knowledge –25% of Americans follow politics “very closely” (Gallup Poll, 2002) –Respondents unlikely to admit this lack of knowledge –Allow “I don’t know” as a response Examples follow:

Don’t Know Answers – offered or volunteered? NPR/Kaiser Family Foundation/Kennedy School of Government Education Survey, June 1999 (conducted June 25 – July 19, 1999) Do you favor or oppose the government offering parents money or "vouchers" to send their children to private or religious schools, or public schools outside their district? Do you favor or oppose the government offering parents money or "vouchers" to send their children to private or religious schools, or public schools outside their district, or haven’t you heard enough about that to have an opinion? Favor Oppose No opinion Favor Oppose No opinion

Polling Accuracy Objective Wording –Avoid “loaded” or emotional words: “How much do you distrust Iran?” “Which public officials have most egregiously violated the public trust?” –Yes/No Answers vs. Ranking –Open-ended vs. Closed-ended –Must respondent prioritize answers? Examples:

The Importance of Words Statement: The country isn’t spending enough $ on assistance to the poor. Agreement: 63% Statement (same survey sample): The country isn’t spending enough $ on welfare. Agreement: 19%

Open-ended or Closed-ended? Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard School of Public Health Health News Index, April 2003 (conducted April 3-6, 2003) What do you think is the most important problem in health or health care for the government to address? (top 7 answers) Which of the following do you think is the most important health care issue for the President and Congress to deal with? Cost of health care Cost of Rx drugs Coverage for uninsured Senior citizens’ care Other medical conditions Rx coverage for seniors Cost of insurance Helping seniors pay for prescription medicines Increasing the number of Americans covered by health insurance Making Medicare more financially sound for future generations Lowering the cost of medical malpractice insurance for physicians Helping states with the cost of Medicaid

Using scales – getting to “the most” Now, I’m going to read you some different health care issues. As I read each one, please tell me how important you think it is for the President and Congress to deal with this issue – very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Poll Report Making Medicare more financially sound for future generations Increasing the number of Americans covered by health insurance Helping states with the cost of Medicaid Lowering the cost of medical malpractice insurance for physicians When forced to choose… Which of the following issues you say are very important do you think is most important?* Percent saying “very important”Percent saying “most important” *Also includes those who named only one issue as “very important” Helping people age 65 and over pay for prescription medicines

Polling Accuracy Cost Efficiency vs. Accuracy Caller ID making polls more expensive –Lower response rates harm reliability Straw Polls = UNRELIABLE –No moderates, repeat respondents –Ex. Viewer call-in polls, web polls Videos: 5 Hour Energy, Daily Show

Polls to Know Gallup Poll Started in 1930s Tracks public’s attitudes on every political, social, & economic issue –Switched from door-to-door to random phone dialing in 1980s Nearly always objective & accurate –1948 “Dewey Defeats Truman” blunder

Polls to Know Harris Poll Started in 1963 Uses Telephone & Online surveys Nielsen Ratings Started in early 1940s TV and entertainment preferences Pew Research Center (a “fact bank”)

Political Socialization Process by which people acquire political beliefs & attitudes –Personal Traits –Background Traits Group Identification affects political attitudes

Political Socialization 1.Family 2.Education 3.Religion 4.Gender 5.Social Class 6.Race/Ethnicity 7.Geographic Region