Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas Lomonosov Moscow State University Faculty of Geography Natural Risk Asessment Laboratory (NRAL) Vyacheslav Baburin Stepan Zemtsov

Object – aqua-territorial systems Subject – influence of natural processes (flood, underflooding, surges) on aqua- territorial systems Purpose – an estimation of influence (risk and damage assessment) of natural processes on aqua-territorial systems Object and purpose

Municipal districts and main cities of Krasnodar region (Krasnodarsky kray) Coastal zones of Leningrad region (Leningradskaya oblast)

Ecological sphere Technosphere 1.Infrastructure 2.Fixed funds Sociosphere 1. Socio-demographic parameters 2. Ecomomic parameters 3. Political-administrative parameters 4. Cultural parameters Psychological sphere Aqua-territorial socio-economic system Natural hazards Flood Heavy rain Surge Ice Waterlogging Antroposphere The basic concept of Russian approach

Databases Estimation of potential damages for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones from flood, underflooding and surges Methodology: calculation of potential damage Indicators: population, capital assets, building area, the value of land and real estate, GRP, etc. Information Base: Rosstat, satellite images, maps, reports of economic units Vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region during floods, underflooding and surges Methodology: calculation of vulnerability index Indicators: population, capital assets, infrastructure, industry, tertiary sphere, etc. Information base: Rosstat, ministries and departments, Administration of Krasnodar Region and municipalities

Methods of damage and vulnerability assessment

Susceptibility Public infrastructure Housing conditions Poverty and dependenciesEconomic capacityIndex Length of improved water source / people Length of improved sanitation / people The share of the inhabitants in fragile dwellings The share of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum The share of the population benefiting from social assistance to pay for housing services The share of the population served by the departments of social services at home for senior citizens and disabled Sales of own- produced goods, works and services / people 0,075 0,15 0,250,33 Lack of coping capacity Government and authoritiesMedical services Social networks Material coverageIndex Unemployment rate The share of own revenues of local budgets Number of hospital beds per inhabitants Number of physicians per inhabitants Share of participants in voluntary groups for the protection of public order Average monthly wages per capita 0,10,100,22 0,260,10,33 Lack of adaptive capacity Education Environmental management Adaptation strategies InvestmentIndex Share of employed people with good education Observed /Maximum flood area Diversification of the labour market (Herfindahl– Hirschman Index) Private investment / people 0,25 0,33 W orldRiskIndex approach. Selected indicators from database

Exposure and vulnerability indeces

Key results Database (Excel format) of potential flood damage for the Baltic Sea region was prepared Methodology of potential damage estimation was developed. Potential damage assessment to dangerous hydrological processes was conducted for coastal zones of Baltic sea The article was prepared (in Russian). Database (Excel format) of social vulnerability to dangerous hydrological phenomena in coastal municipalities of Krasnodar region was prepared Index of vulnerability has been calculated for coastal municipalities of Krasnodar region using the methodology of the UN University. The article was published in Russian and was prepared in English

Development of integrated risk assessment methods for river basins of Krasnodar Region Potential results: 1. Integrated databases for population and economic entities of Krasnodar Region. 2. The surveys of population and expert interviews. 3. Reaction model of territorial socio-economic system to unfavorable and dangerous natural phenomena in the basins of Krasnodar region. Expedition: “Multifactor vulnerability assessment for socio-economic systems of coastal municipalities to dangerous hydrological phenomena” Object of study: Slavyansk municipal district of Krasnodar region. Stages and methods: 1. Preparatory. a.Collect detailed statistics on study areas, prepare questionnaire for survey and experts b.Prepare natural risks maps (in hydrology) at the settlement level c.The calculation of potential property damage and possible loss of life to various levels of flooding 2. Field trip a. Survey areas - verification assessment of material damage. b. Survey of the local population. c. Meeting with representatives of the administration, emergency, local scientists. 3. Cameral. a. Poll data analysis (SPSS): identification of populations, areas, etc. b. Mapping for damage and vulnerability. c. Preparation of recommendations for changes to legislation for coastal zones (including the prohibition of living and raising insurance premiums on the most dangerous sections). Large-scale maps of settlements in different areas of flooding risk, speed of evacuation, placement of hazard warning objects, etc.

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