Science Advisory Board Public Session 1 1 Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration Climate Change Science Program Office CCSP Update May 3, 2005 Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, CCSP Update 1. Background 2. Synthesis and Assessment Products 3. Climate Science Workshop 4. International Assessments 5. Our Changing Planet

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, CCSP Background U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1990 President Bush announced Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) and Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTI) – June 11, 2001 President Bush announced new cabinet-level management responsibilities for climate science and technology programs – February 14, 2002 a Climate Change Science Program (~$2B/year) a Climate Change Technology Program (~$3B/year) CCSP encompasses CCRI and USGCRP

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, 20054

5 CCSP Internal Structure CCSP Interagency Committee Director: Asst. Sec. of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere CCSP Office Atm. Comp.Climate Var. & Change Water CycleLULCC CommunicationsHD / HCR International Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Observations Interagency Working Groups

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, CCSP Goals 5 Climate Science Goals  Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment  Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate  Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes  Understand Sensitivity & Adaptability of Natural & Manmade Ecosystems  Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, CCSP Priority Areas FY06 Aerosols Carbon Sources and Sinks Water Cycle Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity to Natural and Human- Induced Forcing Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change Global Climate Observations Climate Modeling Systems Decision Support Capabilities Communications between Scientists and Information Users

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, Synthesis & Assessment Products Current evaluations of the science foundation that can be used for informing public debate, policy, and operational decisions, and for defining and setting the future direction and priorities of the program Components of the process - Lead agency identification - Prospectus preparation - Author selection - Stakeholder interactions, public comment - Product drafting/reviewing - Approval, production, and release (“Information Quality Act”) 21 Products

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, Synthesis & Assessment Products 1.1 Temperature trends 1.2 Past Arctic climate variability and change 1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data. Implications for attribution 2.1 Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations 2.2 North American carbon budget & implications for global carbon cycle 2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate 2.4 Ozone: Emissions of ODSs, ozone layer recovery, and implications 3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations 3.2 Climate projections 3.3 Climate extremes 3.4 Risks of abrupt climate change

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, Synthesis & Assessment Products 4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise 4.2 Thresholds of ecosystem change 4.3 Relationship between observed ecosystem changes & climate change 4.4 Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources 4.5 Implications of different atmospheric concentrations of GHGs 4.6 Socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate variability 4.7 Transportation and climate change and variability 5.1 Uses and limitations of climate information in decision support 5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking 5.3 Decision support using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, CCSP Workshop Location: Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington, VA Purpose: To facilitate exchange of ideas among the government, academic, international, NGO, and stakeholder groups participating in the CCSP process. Topics: Discussions will include the scientific basis and the use of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products in addressing CCSP’s three decision support goals: Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments (national and international) Develop and illustrate adaptive management and planning capabilities. Develop and evaluate methods to support climate change policy inquiries Registration:

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, U.S. Models CCSM3, PCM, GFDL (2 versions), and GISS (3 versions). All are coupled ocean/atmosphere/land models New model development: US models include 2nd highest resolution in the international effort Ensemble simulations to characterize uncertainty All simulations available to the modeling community through PCMDI, and a subset of data for impacts researchers through IPCC TGICA CCSP role Funding provided to participating community Support for meetings to review model results Papers in preparation to meet AR4 publication deadline Support for WG I TSU and participation of US scientists IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Timeline 2004 May – Confirmation of author teams Sep – First Lead Author meeting 2005 Jan – Zero order draft submitted to Technical Support Unit Sep – First order draft to external reviewers 2006 Apr – Second order draft to external and Gov’t reviewers Sep – Final draft submitted to TSU 2007 Jan – Approval at WG1 Plenary Session of Gov’t reps

OFCM/CCAMS Meeting – May 3, Our Changing Planet FY06