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Presentation transcript:

Rapid estimates: a dashboard for short-term economic developments Kees Zeelenberg (Director of Methodology & Quality, Statistics Netherlands)

Questions for discussion Contents Dashboard Tracer Indicator Questions for discussion Business cycle Dashboard

Business cycle Dashboard (1) Set of indicators Some leading, some coincident, some lagging Cyclical component of the indicators; shown as standardized deviation from trend Complete and coherent analysis of the cyclical aspects of the economy Business cycle Dashboard

Business cycle Dashboard (2) Sentiment indicators Economic indicators Labour market indicators Business cycle Dashboard

Business cycle dashboard

Downswing, recession, recovery, boom Business cycle Dashboard

Business cycle Dashboard (3) Sentiment indicators : Producer confidence Orders received Consumer confidence Large purchases Business cycle Dashboard

Business cycle Dashboard (4) Economic indicators : GDP Fixed capital formation Manufacturing output Consumption Exports Capital market interest rate Business cycle Dashboard

Business cycle Dashboard (5) Labour market indicators : Jobs Temp jobs Unemployment Vacancies Bankruptcies Business cycle Dashboard

Business cycle Dashboard

Summary of Business cycle Dashboard Moving pictures Examples: Business cycle Tracer Summary of Business cycle Dashboard Moving pictures Examples: Statistics Netherlands Eurostat OECD ABS (Australia) Korea Business cycle Dashboard

Business cycle tracer (“clock”) Business cycle Dashboard

BCT Indicator: Summary of Dashboard and Tracer (“pointer of the business cycle clock”) Business cycle Dashboard

Questions for discussion Is it important to have a dashboard (set of indicators) compared with a single indicator? Does the dashboard help to understand and analyze the developments in the economy? Is one synthetic indicator (BCT-indicator) relevant and useful? Does it make sense to combine several types of indicators (sentiment, economic, labour)? Is the presentation of dashboard, tracer and indicator adequate? Is there any user feedback? Business cycle Dashboard