WHY STUDY VENEZUELA? Because it threatens our way of life? 27 million people; total GDP, including its oil = 360 b (about half of our typical defense budget or one year’s budget deficit) Is it a unique democracy gone bad: What $6K GDP normally means for a democracy… How can oil help and harm democracy? Is this a new kind of soft, leftist authoritarianism, or is it a just classic case of populism? The snowball effect of Chavismo: Bolivia, Cuba part 2, Peru almost, Ecuador… This is what we are most afraid of There’s also serious concern about his regional politics: Republic of Gran Colombia? So Anti-US model that other leftists get to play centrists? Does his oil let him say what others think?

KEY MOMENTS IN VENEZUELA’S POLITICAL & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1821: The center of Simon Bolivar’s independence movement against the Span. Geography and battles of over the state leads to regional caudillos and chaos until in the 1870s, when civil war takes 100K lives. General Guzman Blanco, a “Bolivarian,” imposes order and a cult like reverence until he was pushed out by another general—Cipriano Castro—who ruled for three decades. 1908: Juan Vicente Gomes (think Mexico’s Porfirio Diaz, but all stick and no bread because of the oil wealth). By 1920, Venezuela =‘s #1 oil producer in the world (Is Brazil lucky to have found its oil late?) 1935 Gomez dies, and two parties formed: The COPEI (Christian Democratic) and AD (Democratic Action). Like, Colombia, the left and communists are shut out. COPEI and AD rule corruptly and ineffectively, prompting a coup in 1952 that installs yet another general, the dictator Perez Jimenez (more like Cuba’s Batista than Brazil’s general). His brutal, but short rule, leads the military to try an aborted coup; he flees the country Venezuela was governed by a 2-party oil pact that suffered the same oil- >borrowing->economic reform -> pressure for change fate as the Mexican PRI Interestingly, you don’t have anything like the FARC emerge: Populism and corruption keep the people inside the system, and Ven history is actually much less violent than Colombia’s: Instead, the revolution emerges inside of the military itself… which is very Venezuelan

WHAT ABOUT THE BOLOVARIAN “REVOLUTION” Why wasn’t it a revolution and why isn’t Chavez a totalitarian (are comparisons with Cuba by himself or critics accurate?) 1992: Lt. Col. Hugo Chavez, a paratrooper, participates (but wasn’t the sole leader) of a coup that had been in the planning by an elite military group for a decade. How was this coup different, and how did it end? 1998: Hugo Chavez wins the presidency by a 56% majority promising to fix Venezuelan politics; instead, he: – Completely polarized the political system and the military – Got the legislature to give him decree (not provisional) powers that were given to him in 2000 by the legislature in response to the “state of emergency” caused by strikes – Rigged the constitution and courts, filling them with allies – Used the state oil company as patronage to buy off poor voters – Picked all kinds of fights with the US and other countries The 2002 coup strengthened Chavez. Why did the US support it (at least tacitly)? 2007: Constitutional reforms that would have allowed a 7 year pres term and restarted the reelection clock, but they were voted down. 2010: Signs that he’s losing power? People asked when will he leave??? (The external pol. environment and the extent to which the opposition is unified will matter a lot) 2013: Chavez is dead, long live Chavismo? Why is it good that the Chavistas are still in power?

WHAT CHAVEZ HAS DONE; WHAT HE HAS FAILED TO DO… Is this a new “revolutionary” or an old “populist” approach to political economy? Ellner argues it’s: “non-revolutionary” for the most part, but what about going forward?... Regime has become more radical Has economic power really changed in Venezuela? What about the distribution of wealth? Has “hegemony” and political power? What is “participatory democracy”? Are all of these referenda examples of presidential extremism? Most of Chavez’s power comes from the political system (FPTP in a system organized around him) and the repeated decisions by opponents to boycott it. How will this work to unify the opposition? What kind of institutions is he building? Mostly patronage machines, but even when he is gone they may persist? “Social responsibility laws”? Totalitarianism or acceptable in a democratic society? Does he have a point about the media (isn’t the media attacked in US society as well?) Brilliant leadership…corruption…leader of the poor, or just a guy who wants to stay in power and has lots of oil? What does Chavez really model?