The Future of WFO Hurricane Products in the Digital Age Effective Threat Communications for Every Customer Barry S. Goldsmith, Senior Forecaster NWS Forecast Office, Tampa Bay, FL 2005 NOAA Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida November 30, 2005

“If You Build It…They Will Come” Field Of Dreams, 1989 What We Will Build: A Hazards-Based “House” of Data that will include many “rooms” for our customers to find the information they desire. How We Will Build It: We will use the “materials” and “tools” from NWS Digital Services. Why We Will Build: Eliminate Redundancy – too many products provide the same information Reduce Confusion by simplifying our message through graphics and text

Some Graphical Issues Web Pages: Front Page Map gets “cluttered” with hazards, no easy way for customer specification Web Pages: Front Page Map gets “cluttered” with hazards, no easy way for customer specification Graphical Tropical Hazards: WFOs provide good data but needs interconnectivity. Note differences below. Graphical Tropical Hazards: WFOs provide good data but needs interconnectivity. Note differences below. WFO MelbourneWFO Tampa Bay

Some Text Issues HLS: Still unwieldy (non-segmented, too long, headline requirements somewhat inflexible) HLS: Still unwieldy (non-segmented, too long, headline requirements somewhat inflexible) Redundancy: TPC advisory and HLS information overlap Redundancy: TPC advisory and HLS information overlap NPW: Confusion continues for coast vs. inland wind NPW: Confusion continues for coast vs. inland wind Time needed to “handcraft” products despite other vital needs: Time needed to “handcraft” products despite other vital needs:  Digital data QC/Adjustments  Impact assessment  Customer service (phone calls, requests)  Communications (interviews, EM support, IM)

Rooms In the House… Examples of Rooms Great RoomAll Tropical Weather Hazards Master BedroomWind Watch/Warning KitchenInland Flood Watch/Warning Dining RoomSurge Watch/Warning Office/DenTornado Watch/Warning; Destructive Wind Warning

Furniture In the Rooms… Graphical Information: All-Hazards Threat, by Area (Great Room) Color-coded Specific-Hazard Threat Levels, by Area (Master BR) Color-coded Probabilistic Specific-Hazard Threat Levels, by Area (Kitchen) GIS-based “Hazard Layers”, zoom option (Den/office) GIS-based “Hazard Layers”, by 5 km grid point (Fancy Master Bath)

Furniture In the Rooms… Text Information: Segmented HLS (Great Room) Area Wind Watch/Warning (Master BR) Surge Watch/Warning for affected tidal locations (Kitchen) Tornado/Destructive Wind Warning (Den/Office) Point-based Text, by Hazard (Fancy Master Bath)

Blood, Sweat, and Tears The Tools Graphical: Graphical:  Weather Editor (GFE)  Formatters (smart tools, web scripts, etc.) Text: Text:  VTEC  Formatters

Sounds Easy, Right? Well…Maybe Not. The current state of the raw materials and tools would allow us to build this house now… …Unfortunately, it might not survive a hurricane. It’s time to sharpen the tools and refine the raw materials to build it rock solid. Here’s How…

Refining the Raw Materials: Text Segment the HLS. Segment the HLS.  Offer area, county, and point-based. Simplify our Hazard Products. There are five possible hazards in all: Simplify our Hazard Products. There are five possible hazards in all:  Wind.  Freshwater Flood.  *Surge.  Tornado.  *Waves/Seas. *Surge for Coastal/Tidal locations and large lakes. Waves/Seas for marine waters as well as coastal/tidal locations and large lakes.

Sharpening the Tools: Text VTEC is ready. Code adjustments for simpler hazard types would be minor. VTEC is ready. Code adjustments for simpler hazard types would be minor. Robust Formatters are Needed for all (HLS) and specific (VTEC) hazards. A dedicated FSL/NWS team would create software to generate near- flawless text from digital data. Robust Formatters are Needed for all (HLS) and specific (VTEC) hazards. A dedicated FSL/NWS team would create software to generate near- flawless text from digital data. Locally-adjusted Impact Statements, per hazard, would be “suggested” from digital data. Locally-adjusted Impact Statements, per hazard, would be “suggested” from digital data.  Example: Sustained wind 90 mph gust 110 mph would highlight a Cat 2 impact, but forecaster would have final say.

Refining the Raw Materials: Graphics Standardized Graphical Tropical Weather Hazards Web Pages. This would allow for intersite consistency through NDFD. Standardized Graphical Tropical Weather Hazards Web Pages. This would allow for intersite consistency through NDFD. GIS capability. Layered hazards, zoom/redraw at higher resolution GIS capability. Layered hazards, zoom/redraw at higher resolution Enhanced options: Probabilistic, Point, and Point Probability information for each hazard Enhanced options: Probabilistic, Point, and Point Probability information for each hazard Web enhancement with GIS (i.e., Mouse Over, Flash, etc. options): Web enhancement with GIS (i.e., Mouse Over, Flash, etc. options):  Hazard grids: Impact text, numerical value range  Parameter Grids: Point or Point-probability values  Linked hazard/parameter grids:  For example: A moderate wind hazard could provide options for impact text, numerical range (hazard grid), or forecast sustained wind and/or gust value (parameter grid).

Refining the Tools: Graphics NWS/FSL/TPC Team consisting of SOO, IT staff, digital services staff, etc. to produce the following: NWS/FSL/TPC Team consisting of SOO, IT staff, digital services staff, etc. to produce the following:  Smart Tools to produce near-flawless baseline hazard grids from parameter grids  Smoothing technique for “camera-ready” graphics  Web-Enhancement through GIS and high-end interactive processes (mouse over options, Flash, scripting, etc).

Timeline 2006 Finalize Concept of Operations and Details, Select Teams 2007 Teams complete work on baseline before peak of season (Aug), test new capabilities in “live” but closed environment 2008 Refine graphical and text output based on results from closed test by Jun 1. Run OT&E at selected offices through Nov Implement system nationwide.

The End Result: A Home we can all live in!Customer Room and Use Television Broadcaster Great Room; Segmented HLS text and/or all hazards area-based graphics County Emergency Manager Master Bedroom (i.e., wind); Specific hazard text (VTEC) and/or GIS-adaptable graphical hazards. Impacts are most important. Inland City Planner Inland City Planner Kitchen (i.e., flood); Specific hazard text (VTEC) and GIS-based graphical hazards. Will combine specific numerical data and expected impacts for the particular storm to make best possible decision for pre-storm evacuation of low lying/riverfront areas and post-storm resource positioning. Coastal Communities Dining Room (i.e., surge); Specific hazard text (VTEC) and GIS-based graphical hazards. Will combine specific numerical data with expected impacts for the particular storm to make best possible evacuation decision. Harry Homeowner Master Bath; Point-based deterministic/probabilistic text or GIS-based graphics for any hazard at his location

Questions? Thank You!