A detailed evaluation of the WRF-CMAQ forecast model performance for O 3, and PM 2.5 during the 2006 TexAQS/GoMACCS study Shaocai Yu $, Rohit Mathur +, Daiwen Kang $, Jonathan Pleim +, Daniel Tong $, Brian Eder + and Kenneth Schere + Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division NERL, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC $ On assignment from Science and Technology Corporation + On assignment from Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA
Introduction
CMAQC ommunity M ultiscale A ir Q uality M odel Community Model Multiscale – consistent model structures for interaction of urban through Continental scales Multi-pollutant – ozone, speciated particulate matter, visibility, acid deposition and air toxics
grid cells 259 grid cells Northeast “1x” Domain East “3x” Domain Testing Domain: Summer 2006 Testing Domain: Summer 2006 Experimental: CONUS “5X” 442 grid cells 265 grid cells Operational: EUS “3x” CONUS “5x” Domain This Study
Tracks of ship Tracks of P-3 flights
Results: Operational evaluation for O 3 at AIRNOW sites overprediction (8/25-9/30) Very low O 3 concentrations Obs Model Underprediction: high conc. range
Results: Operational evaluation for PM 2.5 at AIRNOW sites due to underestimation of SO 4 2-, NH 4 + (see later) Obs 11.7±7. 9 Mod9.9±6.6 Obs11.7±7.9 Mod9.9±6.6 Mean: Underpredicted obs PM 2.5 by 16% Significant underprediction (8/1-8/31)
Results: Time-series evaluation with ship Gas species O3Model37.82 Obs35.04 NO2Model11.07 Obs6.14 NOyModel15.91 Obs10.28 COModel Obs SO2Model2.11 Obs3.32 ISOPModel0.23 Obs0.28 HCHOModel2.39 Obs1.82 TOLModel0.30 Obs0.50 ALDModel2.02 Obs1.07 over Gulf of Mexico
Meteorological parameters Results: Time-series evaluation with ship data Model underestimated SO 4 2-, NH 4 +, NO 3 - by -29, -41, -86%, respectively over Gulf of Mexico TempObs28.9 Model28.7 WDIR10Obs167.4 Model164.3 WSPD10Obs3.6 Model3.9 RGRNDObs461.8 Model466.2 Mean
Results ( PM 2.5 SO 4 2-, NH 4 + ): vertical profiles Over predicted SO 4 2- aloft but under prediction at surface CB-4 chemical mechanism produces too much H2O2 (Yu et al., 2007) Layer means for model and observations from the aircraft (P 3 ) during the 2006 TexAQS/GoMACCS The model under predicted NH 4 + both at the surface and aloft, Daily Layer Means
Results ( Vertical profiles for O 3,CO and SO 2 ) Daily Layer Means SO 2 : Close to obs at high altitude Higher than obs at low altitude O 3 : good at low altitude Overprediction at high altitudes CO: good at low altitude Under-prediction at high altitudes
Daily Layer Means Results ( Vertical profiles for NOy, NO2 and NO ) NOy, NO 2, NO and HNO 3 : Generally good at high altitudes Overprediction at low altitudes
Acetaldehyde: overprediction Daily Layer Means Toluene, Isoprene: underestimation Results ( Vertical profiles of VOC species )
Site 1 ( Washington, D.C.) Results: Time-series evaluation at PAMS sites
Results: summary at 4 sites and all 9 PAMS sites site1234Total O3Obs Model NMB COObs Model NMB NOObs Model NMB NO2Obs Model NMB NOxObs Model NMB SO2Obs Model NMB
Contacts: Brian K. Eder
Contacts: Brian K. Eder
Site 2 Results: Time-series evaluation at PAMS sites
Results : Total sulfur during 2004 ICARTT Results (preliminary) : Time-series evaluation at PAMS sites Obs4.6±5 NMM5.9±4 ARW6.8±5 Mean SO 2 : very scatter, over-predict low conc. but under-predict high conc.
Results : O 3 Vertical profiles Sulfur Dioxide 2002 Summer 12-km Eastern US Results: Standard CMAQ performance for SO 2