Implications and Reactions in the Tourism & Hospitality Industry Wesley S. Roehl School of Tourism & Hospitality Management Temple University 3 October 2003

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Impact of 9-11 on world tourism  As reported by the WTO, international arrivals declined in 01 for the first time since 82 Worldwide, 02 showed growth in arrivals over both 00 and 01 However, US international arrivals were down in both 01 and 02  International Labour Organization estimated real growth loss in travel & tourism industry employment worldwide of 8.6% in 01-02

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Short-term response to 9-11 by US consumers  Responses reported in samples of the US public Post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) observed both in those with direct and in those with indirect exposure to terrorism Changed or canceled trips / travel / vacations Reported by 9% to 10% of the public in surveys conducted between 9/13/01 and 6/02 Avoided crowds Reported by 8% to 14% of the public in surveys conducted 10/01

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Impact on US tourism industries  Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Account

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Tourism-related sales of tourism industries Source: BEA

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Trends in direct tourism sales vary by industry Selected industry Quarters of negative growth since 9/11/01 Comments Travel agency services8 / 8-8.5% in 01, -9.5% in 02 Air transportation5 / 8large Q declines: immediate -47%, -45%, later -21%, -18% Hotels & lodging places5 / 8-4.6% in 01, +1.1% in 02 Amusement & recreation services 2 / 8immediate & small Q: -.8%, -.9%; +6.5% in 01 Eating & drinking places1 / 8+4.4% in 01, +5.4% in 02

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Trends also vary by region  Federal Reserve Beige Book Variation in overall tourism activity by district and Variation in trends by industry

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Support for security changes Source: Harris Interactive for Time / CNN (10/01) Measure...% support Require passengers to check in 1 hour before departure95 Require passengers to answer questions about travel plans87 Eliminate curbside luggage check in82 Require passengers to check in 2 hours before departure67 Raising airplane ticket prices by $5064 Profiling by age, race, and gender to identify potentially suspicious passengers 57 Raising airplane ticket prices by $10030

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Long-term responses to heightened airport security Source: Dept. of Transportation Omnibus Survey  Air travelers’ confidence in passenger screeners’ ability to keep air travel secure from individuals with hostile intentions April 02September 02August 03 54% satisfied or very satisfied 37% rate 4 or 5 where 5 = very confident 35% rate either “a great deal of confidence” or “total confidence”

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Long-term responses to heightened airport security  Air travelers’ satisfaction with overall experience at passenger screening checkpoint April 02September 02August 03 12% unsatisfied 76% satisfied 07% unsatisfied 66% satisfied 06% unsatisfied 80% satisfied

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Long-term responses to heightened airport security  Effect of passenger screening procedures on air travel September 02August 03 Less inclined to travel by air 24% Had no effect on air travel 70% More inclined to travel by air 05% Less inclined to travel by air 24% Had no effect on air travel 68% More inclined to travel by air 08%

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Acceptance of selected security procedures Source: TU-STHM survey of internet travel information seekers (Fall 02)

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Perceived effectiveness of selected security procedures

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Multiple threats to tourism Source: TU-STHM nationwide survey (5/03)  On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being Not Worried At All and 5 being Very Worried, please tell me how worried you are about each of the following... How worried are you about SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome? How worried are you about terrorism? How worried are you about the economy? How worried are you about the potential for bankruptcy and interruption of service by commercial airlines?

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Multiple threats to tourism Threat Mean level of concern Percentage “very worried” economy3.0922% terrorism2.6213% airline bankruptcy % SARS2.2811%

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Threats and travel plans  Level of worry about any of these threats varies across population subgroups For example, the level of worry about terrorism... Varied by age, with older individuals much more likely to report they were “not at all worried” than were younger individuals Varied by income, with low income individuals more likely to respond that they were “very worried” than were others Varied by ethnicity, with African-Americans more likely to say they were “very worried” than were whites Varied by sex, with men less worried then women

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Issues for the tourism industry  Consumer impacts and behaviors PTSD in those directly and indirectly exposed Impact from government and industry adjustments Support for travel security enhancement but effectiveness and inconvenience are issues Shift in transportation modes, destination choice, and from travel to other discretionary activities

W. S. Roehl, Temple University Issues for the tourism industry  Consumer impacts and behaviors Impacts vary across population segments Need to address concerns of impacted groups  Industry impacts Vary by specific industrial sector Vary by location Avoid attributing all post 9-11 changes to 9-11