Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP COPC Meeting Offutt Air Force Base, NE May 2, 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP COPC Meeting Offutt Air Force Base, NE May 2, 2007

2 *Science, data resolution, computer issues,… need to be addressed Top priority Science issue: Surface Emissivity Received = All observations received operationally from providers Selected = Observations selected as suitable for use (cloud free, …)* Assimilated = Observations actually assimilated into models Five Order of Magnitude Increases in Satellite Data Over 15 Years ( ) Count (Millions) Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count M obs 125 M obs Level 2 Radar 239 M obs Satellite Data Ingest Received Data Daily Percentage of Data Ingested into Models Selected Data 100% 7% Assimilated Data 239.5M 17.3M 5.2M 2% *2006 Data NPOESS

3 FundingFTE NOAA $8, NASA $1, DOD $4, NSF/NCAR $ Total$15, Infrastructure* External R&D / R2O Internal R&D / R2O Totals NOAA$2,945 $500$5,300$8,745 NASA $285 $500 $657$1,442 DoD $0 $500 $4,401 $4,901 Total$3,230$1,500$10,358$15,088 * Infrastructure Includes: Director, Deputy, Program Support, Travel, Pubs, Desktop IT, Forecast System Maintenance, Database Management, High-Performance Computing/Communications HPC/C accounts for 60% of $ JCSDA Resources (In $K)

4 COSMIC capability in NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) Increased AIRS data ingested (all fields of view) New NCEP GDAS – Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis Hybrid (sigma-pressure) coordinate model Global and regional application with same code Implemented 1 May 2007 Improved short-term forecasts Includes COSMIC and AIRS upgrades Major Accomplishments: Highlights

5 Key Milestones Achieved since November 2006 COPC Meeting: Completed WINDSAT vector wind data forecast impact assessment using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) – improved forecasts Completed AIRS forecast impact assessment using all fields of view in the NCEP GFS – improved forecasts Completed COSMIC forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS; assessment was completed within seven months of data availability; possible data QC issues under investigation Implemented Jason altimeter data into the NCEP operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) Completed AMSR-E radiance forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS Completed SSMI/S radiance forecast impact assessment using the NCEP GFS Major Accomplishments: Details

6 Major Accomplishments: EMC-GMAO-STAR Code Management for Atmospheric Data Assimilation Time GMAO EMC * * EMC, GMAO System change Repository change + Repository Merger (new tag) * * * * * * * * * * * Repository 1 3 Accepted changes 2 GSI & CRTM supported Process: similar to ECMWF & Météo-France who have annual code mergers But, to promote collaboration, EMC and GMAO use same repository and mergers are more frequent (3 months) Protocols 1 – EMC, GMAO take (agreed-upon) merged code from repository to begin work 2 – EMC, GMAO incorporate developments into repository 3 – Code mergers, repository changes and timing are NCEP’s decision + 3 months

7 GSI Summary 500 hPa heights neutral in both Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere Improved hurricane track forecasts beyond 3 days Forecast mid-latitude winds fit radiosondes significantly better (0-48 h) Bias of 200 hPa winds over East Asia substantially reduced in GSI hybrid GSI hybrid analysed moisture closer to radiosondes GSI hybrid precip over continental US slightly more skill than operational Rms vector wind error in pry at 200 and 850 hPa in tropics reduced Ops GSI Ops GSI

8 GSI 6h Forecast Error – June 2006 OperationsGSI Parallel SSI – large 6h forecast error GSI – well balanced increment Fields leads to small 6 h error

9 ~5 day forecasts from the operational GFS (top left) and the hybrid/GSI GFS (top right) and verifying analysis (bottom) on 1 April 1200 UTC Example Of 5 day Forecast 10 m wind Valid 1 April 2007 NCEP Parallel System GSI Analysis Parallel Forecast Ops Forecast

10 Impact Study with COSMIC 500 hPa height anomaly correlation as a function of forecast day for two different experiments: –PRYnc (assimilation of operational obs ) –PRYc (PRYnc + COSMIC) Approximately 1,000 COSMIC profiles were assimilated per day Results with COSMIC are very encouraging

11 OperationalParallel Total Ozone Forecast Errors (courtesy Craig Long – CPC) NCEP Implementation August 2006 Ozone Physics Uses algorithms contributed by NRL through JCSDA Adapted by EMC, evaluated by CPC Removes low tropical bias in total ozone in GFS NCEP / NRL Interaction

12 Satellite Data Status – May 2007 Jason AltimeterImplemented into NCEP GODAS AIRS with All Fields of ViewImplemented – 1 May 2007 MODIS WindsImplemented– 1 May 2007 NOAA-18 AMSU-AImplemented– 1 May 2007 NOAA-18 MHSImplemented– 1 May 2007 TOPEX,ERS-2 ENVISAT ALTIMETERTest and Development (Envisat) ERS-2 (dead) TOPEX implemented in NCEP GODAS SSMI/S RadiancesPreliminary forecast assessment completed GOES 1xa imageryForecast Assessment in progress METOP AMSU-A, MHS, HIRSForecast Assessment in progress COSMIC/CHAMPImplemented (COSMIC – 1 May); CHAMP in prep. MODIS Winds v2.Test and Development WINDSATPreliminary forecast assessment completed AMSR/E RadiancesPreliminary forecast assessment completed AIRS/MODIS Sounding Channels Assim.Data in Preparation GOES – SW WindsTo be Tested GOES Hourly WindsTo be Tested GOES 11 and 12 Clear Sky Rad. Assim(6.7µm)To be Tested MTSAT 1R Wind Assim.Data in Preparation AURA OMI *Test and Development FY – 2C *Data in Preparation

13 Status of the JCSDA MOA NOAA, Air Force, and Navy legal reviews have been completed Awaiting resolution of one remaining issue with NASA regarding the number of signatories The MOA should be ready for signature within 30 days after successful resolution of signatory issue