Fundamentals of Enrolment Projections Slide 1 Module E5 - Session 1 Mekong Institute & UNESCO Regional Office-Bangkok Prepared by the Education Policy and Reform Unit UNESCO Bangkok February 2009 Training Course on “Training of Trainers from the Greater Mekong Sub- Region on Decentralized Education Planning in the Context of Public Sector Management Reform” 23 February – 6 March 2009; Khon Kaen, Thailand

Enrolment Projection Projection is the process of obtaining an estimate (or estimates) based on present situation, future goals and targets, and past trends Projecting future enrolment is one of the most important tasks for education planners and managers at all levels Enrolment for the coming school year can be projected in several ways: using current enrolment extrapolation based on the previous years’ enrolment trend summing up a portion of current year’s enrolment in the grade (as repeating students) and another portion from the immediately lower grade (as promoting students), etc. Slide 2

Simulation Models Future enrolment cannot be predicted with 100% accuracy due to several factors impacting on schooling. Those factors are both internal (pupil, teacher, school, teaching- learning materials, assessment, …) and external (health, social, economical, cultural, migration, …) Several projections are to be made to select one from an iterative process of target setting The process of making projections based on different, but plausible, targets and assumptions is known as “simulation” Simulation models are the common tools in studying education alternatives. Slide 3

Analysis and Projection Model Analysis and Projection (ANPRO) Model is one of the “simulation models” and is designed for projecting: enrolment and graduates, resources needed, human resources: teachers, principals and other staff material resources: teaching-learning materials, textbooks… facilities and equipment: classes, classrooms, schools, … financial resources: recurrent expenditures (salaries, utilities, maintenance), and capital expenditures such as construction, major repairs, etc… and available resources and possible resource gaps ANPRO uses cohort-component method to project enrolment Other resources needed are projected based on the projected future enrolment in schools, specifically public schools. Slide 4

Cohort-Component Method (1) Let us assume that our primary education system has 5 grades, and that the official school entrance age is 6. Entry point to formal general education system is normally the first grade of primary education, that is Grade 1, and a group of pupils (students) who entered the education system during the same year is called “a pupil cohort” From Grade 1, the cohort will proceed to the higher grades, and ultimately, they will conclude the primary school as “primary school graduates (successful completers)” or “dropouts” Slide 5 new intake Population Aged 6 Grade 1Grade 2Grade 3Grade 4Grade 5 enrolment PRIMARY SCHOOL Graduates DROPOUTS

Cohort-Component Method (2) Not all pupils (or enrolment) in Grade 1 are “new entrants” or “new intake” of the current school year Some of them have already attended, partly or fully, during the previous school years but are still remain in Grade 1 in this school year Those pupils are known as “repeaters” (or repeating students) Similarly, not all pupils in Grade 2 studied in Grade 1 during previous school year most of them are promoted from previous year’s Grade 1 enrolment, and a smaller group is “repeaters” from previous year’s Grade 2 enrolment “promotees”. Pupils promoted to Grade 2 from the previous year’s Grade 1 enrolment are called “promotees”. Slide 6

Cohort-Component Method (3) Once a child entered the education system (primary Grade 1), he/she becomes a “pupil” and has three destinies for the coming year: (1) a higher grade (is promoted to Grade 2) (2) the same grade (repeats in Grade 1) (3) out of school (drops out during, or at the end of school year) Slide 7 Population Aged /06 Grade 1 Population Aged 6 (1) Promotees Grade 1Grade 2 (3) Dropout (2) Repeaters Repeaters 2006/07 New intake Grade 2 Repeaters Dropout

Cohort-Component Method (4) Grade 1 enrolment in year 2005/06 has two components: New intake in 05/06 (from school age population), and Repeaters (from the same grade, Grade 1 in 2004/05) Grade 1 enrolment in year 2006/07 also has two components: New intake in 06/07 (from school age population), and Repeaters (from the same grade, Grade 1 in 2005/06) Thus, Grade 1 enrolment in coming year, 2007/08 can be estimated through: (a) how many pupils will enter into Grade 1 in 07/08 from the school-age population, and (b) how many pupils will repeat in 07/08 from the current year Grade 1 enrolment Grade 1 enrolment in 2007/08 is: Grade 1 enrolment = New intake + Repeaters from in 2007/08in 2007/ /07 cohort Slide 8

Cohort-Component Method (5) Similarly, the Grade 2 enrolment also has two components: Promotees (from the lower grade, Grade 1), and Repeaters (from the same grade, Grade 2) Grade 2 enrolment in the next year is estimated through: (a) number of pupils who will be promoted from the current year Grade 1 enrolment, and (b) number of pupils who will repeat the current year Grade 2 enrolment “How many children will enter as new intake?”; “How many pupils will be promoted?” and “How many pupils will repeat?” should be estimated from the past behavior of the cohort The technique of estimating each component using the common experience of the entire cohort is known as “cohort-component method” Slide 9

Cohort-Component Method (6) Most of those who entered Grade 1 for the first time (the new intake or entrants) are from the population at the school entrance age (say 6-year olds) X Y AIR If there are X number of children aged 6 in the catchment area of a primary school, and the school received Y number of new entrants, the apparent intake rate (AIR) can be calculated as: Y AIR = ---- x 100 X AIR is also known as Gross Intake Rate (GIR) or Gross Admission Rate (GAR) Y From the above equation, number of new entrants, Y is: Y = AIR x X Therefore, number of new entrants can be estimated by multiplying the “apparent intake rate” with “population at the school entrance age” Slide 10

Cohort-Component Method (7) Since the repeaters in 2006/07 are coming from the 2005/06 cohort (of Grade 1 enrolment), the “Grade 1 repetition rate for 2005/06” is defined as: No. of Repeaters in 2006/07 Repetition rate (2005/2006) = x 100 Total enrolment in 2005/06 For example: What are the AIR in 2006/07, percentage of repeaters in Grade 1 in 2006/07, and Grade 1 repetition rate for 2005/06? Slide / Pop. Aged 6 96 Promotees 123? 18 Repeaters 10 Repeaters 2006/ New intake Grade 1 Grade 2

Cohort-Component Method (8) In this example, Grade 1 enrolment in 2006/07 school year is 123. Of them: 18 are repeaters (who were in Grade 1 during 05/06) and 105 are new intake (who have never been to school) Again, there are 100 children aged 6 in the school catchment area, and thus, the “apparent intake rate for 2006/07” is 105% (i.e., 105 / 100 x 100) Out of 123 Grade 1 enrolment in 2006/07, 18 are repeaters and percentage of repeaters is 14.6% (i.e., 18 / 123 x 100) Out of 120 Grade 1 enrolment in 2005/06, 18 pupils are repeating in Grade 1 in 2006/07 school year Therefore, Grade 1 repetition rate for the 2005/06 cohort is 15% (i.e., 18 / 120 x 100), and Grade 2 repetition rate for 2005/06 is 9.1% (i.e., 10 / 110 x 100) Slide 12

Cohort-Component Method (9) Of 120 Grade 1 enrolment in 2005/06 school year, 96 were promoted to Grade 2 in 2006/07 school year Therefore, percentage of pupils promoted from the 2005/06 Grade 1 cohort is, 80% and it is known as “promotion rate” (i.e., 96 / 120 x 100) In this example, 80% of the 2005/06 Grade 1 cohort was promoted to Grade 2, and 15% is repeating in Grade 1 Where are the remaining 5% or 6 pupils (120 – 96 – 18) from 2005/06 cohort? The remaining 6 pupils are no longer in school (or they have dropped out while studying in Grade 1) Thus, the dropout rate for the 2005/06 Grade 1 cohort is 5% (i.e., 6 /120 * 100) The dropout rate can also be obtained by subtracting promotion rate and repetition rate from 100%, that is, dropout rate= 100% - promotion rate – repetition rate = 100% - 80% - 15% = 5% Slide 13

Cohort-Component Method (10) p rd “” Promotion rate is denoted by “p”, repetition rate is denoted by “r”, and dropout rate is denoted by “d”, and the three rates are known as “student flow rates” As seen in the example, the famous relationship among the three student flow rates is: Therefore, if two out of three student flow rates are known, the remaining one can be calculated from the above equation all three We must be careful not to independently set values for all three while setting targets on student flow rates That is, targets on any two out of three student flow rates must be set meaningfully Slide 14 p + r + d = 100 %

Cohort-Component Method (11) If the “promotion rate” for Grade 1 in 2005/06 school year is known, the number of “promotees” in Grade 2 in 2006/07 can be calculated as: promotees= G1 enrolment 05/06 x G1 promotion rate 05/06 (2006/07)= 120 x 80% = 96 pupils Similarly, from the repetition rate for Grade 2 in 2005/06 (9.1%), and, Grade 2 enrolment in 2005/06 (110), one could estimate number of repeaters in Grade 2 in 2006/07 school year as: repeaters= G2 enrolment 05/06 x G2 repetition rate 05/06 (2006/07)= 110 x 9.1% = 10 pupils Therefore, total Grade 2 enrolment in 2006/07 school year becomes: G2 enrolment 06/07= promotees in G2 + repeaters in G2 = = 106 pupils Slide 15

Cohort-Component Method (12) Lets assume that there are 98 children aged 6 in the catchment area of the school and the AIR is targeted at 100% in 2007/08 How many students would the school have in Grade 1 and Grade 2 in 2007/08 school year, if the student flow rates in 2006/07 are same as in 2005/06? Slide /08 98 children aged 6 Grade 1Grade /07 enrolment 123 New Intake ??? enrolment ??? Repeaters ?? enrolment 106 Promotees ??? enrolment ??? Repeaters ?? r = 9.1% AIR = 100% p = 80%r = 15%

Cohort-Component Method (13) And, what would be the enrolment in Grade 1 and Grade 2 in 2007/08 school year, if the promotion and repetition rates for the Grade 1 in 2006/07 become 87% and 10%? Slide /08 98 children aged 6 Grade 1Grade /07 enrolment 123 New Intake 98 enrolment 116 Repeaters 18 enrolment 106 Promotees 98 enrolment 108 Repeaters 10 r = 9.1% AIR = 100% p = 80% r = 15%

Enrolment in Grade 1 Slide 18 Let us recapitulate some calculation made in this presentation: Grade 1 Population New Intake = Aged 6 x Apparent Intake Rate (AIR) in 2006/07 in 2006 Repeaters from Grade /06 G1 = enrolment x G1 Repetition Rate enrolment in 2005/06 G1 enrolment = New Intake + Repeaters in 2006/07 in 2006/07 from 2005/06 G1

Enrolment in Grade 2 Slide 19 Enrolment Promotees Repeaters Grade 2 = from 2005/06 + from 2005/06 (2006/07) Grade 1 Grade 2 Promotees Grade 1 Grade 1 from 2005/06 = enrolment x Promotion Rate Grade 1 (2005/06) (2005/06) Repeaters Grade 2 Grade 2 from 2005/06 = enrolment x Repetition Rate Grade 2 (2005/06) (2005/06)

Enrolment in Other Grades Such a simple calculation procedure is applied in all ANPRO Models for enrolment projection! Slide 20 Enrolment Promotees from Repeaters from 2006/07 = 2005/ /06 Grade i Grade (i-1) Grade (i) Promotees from Grade (i-1) Grade (i-1) 2005/06 = enrolment x Promotion Rate Grade (i-1) (2005/06) (2005/06) Repeaters Grade (i) Grade (i) from = enrolment x Repetition Rate 2005/ / /06

Slide 21 How to Calculate Student Flow: A Working Example Let us assume that our primary education level has 6 grades (Grade 1 to grade 6) and the following flow rates remain the same for the coming years: Then, we can calculate the (selected) measure of efficiency for the primary education as following:

Provincial Education Planning, UNESCO- Bangkok & MOE-Thailand (August 2007)Slide 22

Slide 23 Selected Measures of Internal Efficiency