Tuesday Evening Session Security Risks Posed by Processes of Climate Change Greg Grimsich United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Regional Office for the Pacific Suva, Fiji

Resources 1)Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisor Council, 2008 (248 pages) 2)Freshwater under threat – Pacific Islands SPC and UNEP, 2011 (58 pages) 3)Internal Displacement Caused by Natural Disasters and Climate Change – Conference and Workshop Report PIFS & OCHA/OHCHR/Brookings supported, )Climate Change and Security, Scenarios for Indian-Pacific Ocean Island States. EU, 2009 (14 pages) 2

Conflict Constellations 1)Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources 2)Climate induced decline in food production 3)Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters 4)Environmentally induced migration 3 State Security 1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

Conflict Constellations 1)Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources 2)Climate induced decline in food production 3)Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters 4)Environmentally induced migration 4 State Security 1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

Conflict Constellations 1)Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources 2)Climate induced decline in food production 3)Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters 4)Environmentally induced migration 5 State Security 1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

Sikaiana Atoll, SI 6

Conflict Constellations 1)Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources 2)Climate induced decline in food production 3)Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters 4)Environmentally induced migration 7 State Security 1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

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Conflict Constellations 1)Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources 2)Climate induced decline in food production 3)Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters 4)Environmentally induced migration 9 State Security 1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

Conflict Constellations 1)Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources 2)Climate induced decline in food production 3)Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters 4)Environmentally induced migration 10 State Security 1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

How many climate induced migrants might there be in 2050? Scenarios… 11

Manam volcanic eruption

Center for the Manam displaced destroyed in clashes with local communities 13

Conflict Constellations 1)Climate induced degradation of freshwater resources 2)Climate induced decline in food production 3)Climate induced increase in flood and storm disasters 4)Environmentally induced migration 14 State Security 1) Fragile states, global economy, and over stretching of classic security policy

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