(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Projected Future Changes Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 10 - Global.

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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Projected Future Changes Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 10 - Global Climate Projections

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Part 1: Projected Radiative Forcing

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) A “forecast” implies that we know (or think we know) all the factors that determine the future - even though we may know them only imperfectly. Some important factors we do not know for the future: What will humans do about GHG emissions, aerosol generation and land use? When and where will volcanoes erupt, and how strongly?A “forecast” implies that we know (or think we know) all the factors that determine the future - even though we may know them only imperfectly. Some important factors we do not know for the future: What will humans do about GHG emissions, aerosol generation and land use? When and where will volcanoes erupt, and how strongly? Language Problem: Forecast IPCC does not talk about “forecasting” or “predicting” future climate. Why?

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) IPCC: “A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model.” To recognize this uncertainty, many climate scientists describe a simulation of possible future climate as a projection. Terminology: Projection

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) IPCC Working Group III produced a set of possible future emissions scenarios, described in special IPCC report (see supplemental material). There is no probability weighting to these scenarios: each is considered equally credible. The IPCC AR4 focuses on three: B1 - a “low” emissions future, global cooperation A1B - a “medium” emissions future A2 - a “high” emissions future, regional fragmentationThe IPCC AR4 focuses on three: B1 - a “low” emissions future, global cooperation A1B - a “medium” emissions future A2 - a “high” emissions future, regional fragmentation

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) SRES Scenarios vs. Time

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Steps from Scenario to Climate Change Biogeochemical models Radiation schemes and parameterizations Climate system models

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Radiative Forcings GCM vs Line-by-line What is “line-by- line”?

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Radiative Forcings GCM vs Line-by-line Doubled CO 2 20% increase in water vapor

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Radiative Forcings SRES A1B Longwave (infrared) Shortwave (solar) aerosol uncertainty

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) End Part 1: Projected Radiative Forcing

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Part 2: Projected Climate Change - Atmosphere & Water Cycle

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Projections of Future Changes in Climate

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Stabilization of Future Changes in Climate

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Latitudinal Pattern of Temperature Change ( ) minus ( ) Ratio: Local change / Global average  T Actual change

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Latitude-Height Temperature Changes A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to Stippling: multi-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between models

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Surface Temperature Changes Relative to

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Latitudinal Pattern of Precipitation Change ( ) minus ( ) Actual change Ratio: Local change / Global average  T

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Surface Temperature, Precipitation and Pressure Changes Relative to Stippling: multi-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between models

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Cloud Cover [fraction] A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Diurnal Temperature Range A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Precipitation Characteristics

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Water Cycle

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) End Part 2: Projected Climate Change - Atmosphere & Water Cycle

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Part 3: Projected Climate Change - Oceans & Extremes

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Latitude-Height Temperature Changes A1B (“medium”) scenario relative to Stippling: multi-model ensemble mean > standard deviation between models

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Area of Sea Ice

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Distribution of Sea Ice

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in tropical Pacific SSTs and El Niño Variability

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Extremes: Very Warm Nights (Wehner, 2008) For North America

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Extremes: Heavy Precipitation (Wehner, 2008) For North America

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes in Extremes Standard deviation scale used to combine results from multiple models

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Factors Affecting Hurricane Development (Vecchi and Soden, 2007) A1B scenario 18 GCMs

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Changes Hurricane Intensity (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004) Idealized Simulations with High Resolution Model Future: 80-year warming from 1%/year CO 2 increase

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Sea Level Rise due to Thermal Expansion Observed: : 0.4 ± 0.1 mm/yr : 1.6 ± 0.5 mm/yr Models (A1B): : 1.3 ± 0.7 mm/yr

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Local Sea Level Change due to Density and Circulation Changes “+” = greater than global average Stippling: ensemble mean > stdev between models Wind changes? Low thermal expansivity? Freshening of water?

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Sea-Level Rise: from

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) End Part 3: Projected Climate Change - Oceans & Extremes

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) END Global Climate Projections