Estimating integrative effects of the H’s on salmon populations

Life-cycle model (effects on abundance, productivity, diversity, spatial structure) Hatchery effects Habitat effects Harvest effects Land use Physical processes Other ecological effects

Integrative Analyses in Recovery Planning Technical questions in the TRT/Shared Strategy Watershed Technical Guidance Document address integrative assessment. The TRT is providing technical analyses to integrate the effects of the H’s as part of the Snohomish Case Study.

Snohomish watershed case study: overall purpose Determine if we can actually use the Technical Guidance in a real watershed recovery plan. Identify priority habitat, hatchery and harvest management actions that are consistent with achieving salmon population targets. Assist the Snohomish Forum in identifying priority areas for action and prioritizing types of actions needed to improve VSP for the Snohomish chinook populations.

Snohomish watershed case study: participants King County, Snohomish County Tulalip Tribes WDFW Seattle City Light City of Everett NOAA Fisheries Snohomish Technical Committee

Structure of Snohomish watershed planning groups Technical Committee Policy Development Committee Forum Ecological Analysis for Salmon Conservation Develop conservation scenarios Evaluate conservation scenarios using biological criteria Socioeconomic Analysis Goals Selection of conservation scenario for inclusion in plan

How Does the Guidance Document Help This Process? Ecological Analysis –Questions guide compilation of information Development of Scenarios –Scenarios are based on hypotheses about how the system works Evaluation of Scenarios –VSP is the focus for assessing population status

Life-cycle model (effects on abundance, productivity, diversity, spatial structure) Hatchery effects Habitat effects Harvest effects Land use Physical processes Other ecological effects

Life-cycle models—estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions Egg Fry Smolt Adult

Life-cycle models—estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions Egg Fry Smolt Adult e.g., peak flows, sediment, temperature e.g., peak flows, temperature, riparian condition, juvenile rearing capacity, hatchery interactions e.g., juvenile rearing capacity, hatchery fish, estuarine/marine habitat conditions, harvest e.g., peak or low flows, temperature, sediment, spawning habitat capacity

Hypothetical alternative action sets I.Improve riparian condition, reduce competition for spawning habitat with hatchery fish, adult harvest unchanged II.In addition to #1, improve estuarine & floodplain habitat accessibility, reduce effects of competition with hatchery juveniles, reduce harvest in short term, increase harvest as habitat capacity increases.

improve riparian condition improve hatchery-wild spawner interactions Hypothetical alternative action set I Harvest management plan I

Hypothetical alternative action set II improve riparian condition improve hatchery-wild juvenile & spawner interactions Harvest management plan II

Example of integrative model results habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I years Population size (or growth rate or diversity)

Life-cycle model (effects on VSP) Hatchery effects Habitat effects Harvest effects Land/water use Physical processes Other ecological effects HSRG BRAP PSSMP W-shed group ESA PSSMP PFMC PSC

Existing groups developing alternatives Habitat: watershed groups Harvest: co-managers, Puget Chinook Harvest Management Plan Hatchery: co-managers and HSRG Regional Reviews

Next steps—development of alternatives The TRT will work with co-managers, watershed groups, and other interested parties to develop sets of alternative actions in harvest, habitat and hatchery management that can be used in integrative analyses

Example of integrative model results: adding multiple population risk levels habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I years Population size (or growth rate or diversity)

Questions for Development Committee What are the key points of interface where scenarios combining actions across the H’s can be developed?