Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Results from the Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot CCAC March 17, 2011 Danielle Kreeger Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

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How do we even begin to plan for climate change in a system as large and complex as the Delaware Estuary?

PDE Climate Ready Pilot How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary? How will changes impact key resources? What actions are recommended to make these resources more resilient? What if we don’t take action? 3 case studies

How Will Climate Change? Temperatures More in summer than in winter Locked in for next 30 years Precipitation More in winter than in summer More heavy events Sea Level m by 2100 (or more) local rates >> global Chester Creek, PA October 1, 2010 Salinity Storms ? Growing Season as per Dr. Ray Najjar

Tidal MarshesBivalve Shellfish Drinking Water Case Studies Future Status Vulnerability and Options Rankings Recommendations Delaware Estuary Pilot

A Signature Trait of System Near Contiguous Band Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes Brackish Marshes Salt Marshes Nature’s Benefits Flood Protection Water Quality Fish and Wildlife Natural Areas Carbon Sequestration Tidal Wetlands – Why?

Tidal Wetland Vulnerability Freshwater Tidal Marshes Salinity Rise Barriers to Landward Migration Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting Salt Marshes Sea Level Rise Storms and Wind Wave Erosion Barriers to Landward Migration Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives

Tidal Wetlands Vulnerability Survey & Results Table Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater we Table 3-3. Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater wetlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary. tlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary. RankingVulnerability 1 Sea Level Rise Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands 2 Salinity Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 3 Sea Level Rise Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 4 Precipitation and Storm Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 5 Precipitation and Storm Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands The Top Five….

Tidal Wetlands – Adaptation Options Protection of Natural Buffers Structure Setbacks Living Shorelines Strategic Retreat Managing Water Flows (salinity) Managing Sediments Needs Geospatial Approach Regional Sediment Budget Linked to Tidal Wetland Ecosystem Model LIDAR, Land Use, Modeling and Climate Monitoring Data Assessment Methods to Prioritize Adaptation Tactics Wetland Tough Choices Where will they be converted to open water? Where can we save them ? Where is strategic retreat the best option?

Next Generation Living Shorelines Soft Armoring With Natural Communities MayJuneSeptember

>25% Loss of tidal wetlands! What If We Don’t Take Action? Conversion of >40,000 ha Uplands to Wetlands Conversion of >100,000 ha Wetlands to Water Loss of Services >> Acreage Losses

Tidal MarshesBivalve Shellfish Drinking Water Case Studies Future Status Vulnerability and Options Rankings Recommendations Delaware Estuary Pilot

Bivalves of the Delaware DRBC Crassostrea virginica Elliptio complanata Geukensia demissa 11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels Mya arenariaRangia cuneataCorbicula fluminea Mytilus edulis Ensis directus Mercenaria mercenaria

CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project Nature’s Benefits Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers” Kreeger Oyster Reefs Mussel Beds

Start 8 adult mussels No mussels Biofiltration Potential Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

Later 8 adult mussels No mussels Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech Biofiltration Potential

Bivalves – Issues Freshwater Mussels are Imperiled See posters, Thomas et al., Kreeger et al.

Patchy, Impaired Elliptio complanata Rare Strophitus undulatus Extirpated Alasmidonta heterodon      Bivalve Projections – FW Mussels Shifting Species Ranges, But No Dispersal

Bivalves – Issues Oyster Disease and Salinity Susan Ford, Rutgers HSRL Rutgers HSRL

Longer Growing Season Intertidal Niche Expansion? Today Point of No Return No Help With Help 2 Recruitment Events Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory Bivalve Projections – Oysters Can they be maintained until they might see better conditions?

Bivalve Projections – Ribbed Mussels Losing Marsh Habitat

Freshwater Mussels: imperiled, complicated live history, cannot tolerate salinity Oysters: disease and salinity Ribbed Mussels: losing marsh habitat Impacts Depend on Species and Location

Options for Making Shellfish More Resilient Shellplanting for Oysters Propagate Mussels Riparian Restoration Fish Passage Restoration Water Quality & Flow Management Monitoring & Research Living Shorelines

What Actions Are Recommended for Shellfish?

What if We Don’t Act? Natural Capital at Risk

Tidal MarshesBivalve Shellfish Case Studies Drinking Water Future Status Vulnerability and Options Rankings Recommendations Delaware Estuary Pilot

Drinking Water - Why? Drinking water for >16 million Philadelphia – 1.4 million New York City

Drinking Water Vulnerabilities Effects on Drinking Water Degraded source water quality Salinity Intrusion Power Outages Customer Supply Issues Erosion of infrastructure Obsolete Supply Systems In direct path of flooding, storm surges, and sea level rise

Drinking Water Tough Questions How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary? Will more reservoirs be needed and where? Where should infrastructure be protected?

Drinking Water – Adaptation Options Infrastructure protection Resilient Materials, Modern Upgrades Minimize water demand Water Efficiency, BMP’s New treatment & distribution system Able to with-stand inundation Prevent increased stormwater runoff Protect source water with forests & buffers Disinfection of wastewater

Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network Many Other Issues

DredgingDredging Ecological FlowsEcological Flows WithdrawalsWithdrawals Wind FarmsWind Farms DevelopmentDevelopment Marcellus ShaleMarcellus Shale Emerging PollutantsEmerging Pollutants Spills, NRDASpills, NRDA Land Use ChangeLand Use Change Climate Change + Other Changes Added Complexity

The Big Wild Card Storms

Overall Impacts §As expected, sea level rise, flooding and precipitation effects are major concerns across all case studies §However, vulnerability to salinity rise in the Delaware Estuary is somewhat unique, and especially notable because this system has the world’s largest freshwater tidal prism.

Take Home Messages Not all changes to natural resources will be damaging, but there will be many more losers than winners Need a Paradigm Shift: Plan and “restore” for the future rather than the past, dynamic rather than static conditions Adaptation will require investment to protect lives and livelihoods Proactive investment today will save money in the long term due to compounding of ecosystem services

- End - Delaware Estuary Pilot