1. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Results from the Climate Ready Estuaries Pilot
Danielle Kreeger, Jennifer Adkins and Priscilla Cole
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
Delaware Estuary Summit
January 31, 2011

2. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp

3. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
How do we even begin to plan for climate change in a system as large and complex as the Delaware Estuary?

4. PDE Climate Ready Pilot
Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
PDE Climate Ready Pilot
3 case studies
How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary?
How will changes impact key resources?
What actions are recommended to make these resources more resilient?
What if we don’t take action?
So, we developed three case studies….

5. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Climate Ready Approach
Inventory
Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation Options
Estimate
Future Status and
Ecosystem Services
Environmental
Predictions
Rank Vulnerabilities
and Options
Sharing and
Next Steps
Recommendations

6. Delaware Estuary Pilot
Work Groups
Future Status
Vulnerability
and Options
Rankings
Recommendations
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG)
STAC-affiliated; Chair: Najjar
Tidal Wetland Sub-group
Velinsky & Kreeger
Shellfish Sub-group
Kreeger & Kraeuter
Drinking Water Sub-group
Connolly
Predictions & Modeling Team
Najjar
Natural Capital Team
Cole $

7. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Environmental Predictions
Temp
Salinity
Sea Level Rise
Storms
Example Effects on Example Resources
Habitats
Living Resources
Water

8. How Will Climate Change?
Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
How Will Climate Change?
as per Dr. Ray Najjar
Temperatures
More in summer than in winter
Locked in for next 30 years
Chester Creek, PA
October 1, 2010
Precipitation
More in winter than in summer
More heavy events
Sea Level
m by 2100 (or more)
local rates >> global
Salinity
Predictions serve as common group of “drivers” to workgroups considering vulnerabilities, impacts to future conditions.
Storms ?
Growing Season

9. Delaware Estuary Pilot
Case Studies
Future Status
Vulnerability
and Options
Rankings
Recommendations
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Drinking Water

10. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Tidal Wetlands – Why?
A Signature Trait of System
Near Contiguous Band
Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes
Brackish Marshes
Salt Marshes
Nature’s Benefits
Flood Protection
Water Quality
Fish and Wildlife
Natural Areas
Carbon Sequestration
Tidal wetlands in our system are diverse, following the wide salinity gradient, ranging from fw tidal in the north to full salt marshes and salt brines in the southern areas.
Due to their sheer vastness, combined with the backdrop of industry and major water quality challenges, many scientists consider these marshes to be our system’s kidneys or lungs
Like all tidal marshes, these provide important benefits to people, we refer to these as ecological services.
Concerns, like in the Gulf, see level rise, combined with land subsidence and possibly increased storms, are seen as a major threat
There is a lot of interest at this time in the state of our sediments budgets, wetland condition, and marsh die back

11. Freshwater Tidal Marshes
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability
Freshwater Tidal Marshes
Salinity Rise
Barriers to Landward Migration
Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes
Sea Level Rise
Storms and Wind Wave Erosion
Barriers to Landward Migration
Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives

12. Tidal Wetlands Vulnerability Survey & Results
Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Table Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater we Table Comparison of the effectiveness and feasibility of various potential adaptation options for addressing the main vulnerability of tidal freshwater wetlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary.
tlands and brackish/saltwater wetlands exposed to changing sea level, salinity, precipitation/storms, and carbon dioxide levels by 2100 in the Delaware Estuary.
Tidal Wetlands Vulnerability Survey & Results
The Top Five….
Ranking
Vulnerability 1
Sea Level Rise Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands 2
Salinity Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 3
Sea Level Rise Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 4
Precipitation and Storm Effects on Freshwater Tidal Wetlands 5
Precipitation and Storm Effects on Brackish/Saltwater Wetlands
Experts ranked each vulnerability for impact and confidence – compiled here into one score

13. Tidal Wetlands – Adaptation Options
Protection of Natural Buffers
Structure Setbacks
Living Shorelines
Strategic Retreat
Managing Water Flows (salinity)
Managing Sediments
Wetland Tough Choices
Where will they be converted
to open water?
Where can we save them ?
Where is strategic retreat the
best option?
Needs
Geospatial Approach
Regional Sediment Budget Linked to Tidal Wetland Ecosystem Model
LIDAR, Land Use, Modeling and Climate Monitoring Data
Assessment Methods to Prioritize Adaptation Tactics

14. Soft Armoring With Natural Communities
Next Generation Living Shorelines
Soft Armoring With Natural Communities
Just as one example, something we’re testing, shellfish-based LS. where sea level rise and other problems are causing substantial losses of our tidal marshes.
Integrated approach that will include mussels and oysters
May
June
September

15. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
What If We Don’t Take Action?
>25% Loss of tidal wetlands!
Conversion of >40,000 ha Uplands to Wetlands
Conversion of >100,000 ha Wetlands to Water
Loss of Services >> Acreage Losses
SLAMM modeling by IEc demonstrates the impact of sea level rise on wetlands, and their primary production value
2000
2000
2100

16. Delaware Estuary Pilot
Case Studies
Future Status
Vulnerability
and Options
Rankings
Recommendations
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Drinking Water

17. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Bivalves of the Delaware
11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels
Elliptio complanata
Corbicula fluminea
Rangia cuneata
Geukensia demissa
Mya arenaria
Mytilus edulis
Crassostrea virginica
Ensis directus
Mercenaria mercenaria
DRBC

18. Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers”
Nature’s Benefits
Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers”
Mussel Beds
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
Oyster Reefs
Kreeger

19. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Bivalves – Issues
Freshwater Mussels are Imperiled
See posters, Thomas et al., Kreeger et al.

20.      Bivalve Projections – FW Mussels
Shifting Species Ranges, But No Dispersal
Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata
Rare
Strophitus undulatus
Extirpated
Alasmidonta heterodon     

21. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Bivalves – Issues
Rutgers HSRL
Oyster Disease and Salinity
Susan Ford, Rutgers HSRL

22. Bivalve Projections – Oysters
Can they be maintained until they might see better conditions?
No Help
Longer Growing Season
With Help
2 Recruitment Events
Intertidal Niche Expansion?
Point of No Return
Today
2030
2060
Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory

23. Bivalve Projections – Ribbed Mussels
Losing Marsh Habitat

24. Impacts Depend on Species and Location
Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Impacts Depend on Species and Location
Freshwater Mussels: imperiled, complicated live history, cannot tolerate salinity
Oysters: disease and salinity
Ribbed Mussels: losing marsh habitat
Predictions serve as common group of “drivers” to workgroups considering vulnerabilities, impacts to future conditions.

25. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Options for Making Shellfish More Resilient
Propagate Mussels
Shellplanting for Oysters
Monitoring & Research
Water Quality & Flow Management
Riparian Restoration
Living Shorelines
Predictions serve as common group of “drivers” to workgroups considering vulnerabilities, impacts to future conditions.
Fish Passage Restoration

26. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
What Actions Are Recommended for Shellfish?
Those options formed basis for another survey… this one on effectiveness and feasibility of adaptation options for each driver and shellfish type – combined results shown here.

27. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
What if We Don’t Act?
Natural Capital at Risk
Only oysters have food and ecotourism value – all bivalves have water filtration value

28. Biofiltration Potential
Start
No mussels
8 adult mussels
Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

29. Biofiltration Potential
Later
No mussels
8 adult mussels
Slide from Dick Neves, VA Tech

30. CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
A Hypothetical Example…
4 billion mussels filter 30 billion cubic meters of water per year (estimated, combined biofiltration >>> freshwater flows)
Filter 758 million kilograms TSS from streams annually
15% loss of biomass = 114 less kilograms TSS /yr
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
Photo: Dick Neves, VA Tech

31. Delaware Estuary Pilot
Case Studies
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Future Status
Vulnerability
and Options
Rankings
Recommendations
Drinking Water

32. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Drinking Water - Why?
Drinking water for >16 million
Philadelphia – 1.4 million
New York City

33. Drinking Water Vulnerabilities
Erosion of infrastructure
Obsolete Supply Systems
In direct path of flooding, storm surges, and sea level rise
Effects on Drinking Water
Degraded source water quality
Salinity Intrusion
Power Outages
Customer Supply Issues
Drinking Water Vulnerabilities
Sea Level Rise
Salinity Rise
Flooding / Storm Surge
Precipitation Changes
Drought
Wild Fires / Lightening

34. Drinking Water Tough Questions
How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary?
Will more reservoirs be needed and where?
Where should infrastructure be protected?

35. Drinking Water – Adaptation Options
Infrastructure protection
Resilient Materials , Modern Upgrades
Minimize water demand
Water Efficiency, BMP’s
New treatment & distribution system
Able to with-stand inundation
Prevent increased stormwater runoff
Protect source water with forests & buffers
Disinfection of wastewater

36. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Many Other Issues
Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network 36

37. Climate Change + Other Changes
Marcellus Shale
Ecological Flows
Dredging
Spills, NRDA
Added Complexity
Withdrawals
Wind Farms
Land Use Change
Development
Emerging Pollutants

38. The Big Wild Card
Storms

39. Overall Impacts
As expected, sea level rise, flooding and precipitation effects are major concerns across all case studies
However, vulnerability to salinity rise in the Delaware Estuary is somewhat unique, and especially notable because this system has the world’s largest freshwater tidal prism.

40. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Take Home Messages
Not all changes to natural resources will be damaging,
but there will be many more losers than winners
Need a Paradigm Shift: Plan and “restore” for the future
rather than the past, dynamic rather than static conditions
Adaptation will require investment to protect lives and
livelihoods
Proactive investment today will save money in the long
term due to compounding of ecosystem services

41. Introduction to the ICEC/USNVC
Delaware Estuary Pilot
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