Forecasting NOAA’s Future Brigadier General John J. Kelly Jr., (USAF, Ret.) Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere AMS Corporate Forum March 9, 2006 Brigadier General John J. Kelly Jr., (USAF, Ret.) Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere AMS Corporate Forum March 9, 2006

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 2 Menu Who Cares about Earth Observations? GEOSS Update Near Term Opportunities IOOS Status of NOAA Satellite Systems NOAA Budget Outlook Partnerships

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 3 Who cares about Earth Observation Data? We Must Promote Societal Benefits of Integrated Observations courtesy Environmental Agency August 31, 2005 provided by NOAA Levee break

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 4 Important to NOAA’s Mission Max Mayfield

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 5 GEOSS & US GEO Integrated Observations & Data Management GEOSS A director of the GEO Secretariat has been hired We have a 2006 work plan at the international level GEO-Netcast The U.S. agreed to move a geostationary satellite to provide better environmental satellite coverage over South America. US GEO Plans are being developed for the six following areas for completion in early 2006 Air Quality Disasters NIDIS Sea Level Change Land Observations Architecture & Data Management

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 6 The Vision Provide the right information, in the right format, at the right time, to the right people, to make the right decisions.

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 7 The Vision Must Be Followed By The Venture GEOSS will provide scientific basis for sound policy decisions in every sector of our society Increase our capability to address natural disasters Coordination presents challenges but is necessary for our efforts to be effective We are moving forward Moving GOES Satellite GEO NetCast

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 8 Near Term Opportunity Air Quality This plan identifies need for: Integrated Observation-Model Air Quality Fields Systems for Utilizing Observations to Improve AQ Forecasts Assessments of Key Air Quality Processes Improved Emissions Inventories Improved International Transport Assessments

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 9 Near Term Opportunity National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Identifies critical gaps in the nation’s infrastructure, which inhibit our ability to most effectively reduce the impact of drought Early opportunities to address gaps include: Improvements in the frequency, timeliness, and density of key observations Creation of an Internet portal to provide a drought early warning system Establishment of a NIDIS operations office to ensure optimization of existing Federal, state, local and private sector observations and information delivery Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas Water Resource Management Disasters Sustainable Agriculture Climate Variability and Change

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 10 Near Term Opportunity Sea Level Change Near Term Opportunity – Sea Level Identifies needs for direct ocean observations, coastal observations, ice sheet measurements and associated observations, and reference frames

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 11 Near Term Opportunity Land Observing Identifies three enhancements that would be the basis of a functional GLOS: Mid-decadal global data set of high resolution (30m) satellite imagery in 2006 Global land data base at high resolution (30m) and the seasonal collection of such data (i.e., continuity of Landsat-type observations) Extension of a network (Global Integrated Trends Analysis Network) that combines ground data and earth observations from aircraft and space to evaluate land cover trends Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas: Terrestrial Ecosystems Climate Variability and Change Disasters Biodiversity Sustainable Agriculture/Combating Desertification

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 12 Near Term Opportunity NOAA Target Architecture Target Architecture Principles: Utility Interoperability Flexibility Sustainability Affordability Coordinated with all appropriate partners (international & national)

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 13 Near Term Opportunity Disasters-Tsunami Warning System USGEO Near-Term Opportunity Improved tsunami and coastal inundation forecast and warning capability GEO Near-Term Effort Working Group on Tsunami Activities continuing to provide integration observation requirements to the Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System effort

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 14 Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Tide Gauges Argo Floats Tsunami Buoys Hurricane Buoys AVHRR

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 15 NOAA Satellite Program Status National Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Technical Challenges and Cost Overruns to the Program Independent Program Assessment Team provided analysis of options for the program Options being evaluating by cost analysis experts Proposed changes to structure of Integrated Program Office Program Executive structure under review Nunn-McCurdy notification to Congress in January Currently working with Air Force to recertify the program Dedicated to finding appropriate solution FY07 President’s Request – $337.89M for NOAA, up $20.3M Matching request in the Air Force budget

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 16 NOAA Satellite Program Status Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program (GOES-R) The Secretary of Commerce approved next phase of program development—System Program Definition and Risk Reduction (PDRR). Three industry teams awarded – Boeing Space Systems, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman FY06 Budget President’s Request—$241M; Enacted—$219M FY07 President’s Request—$335.8M, up $113.4M GOES-R System Acquisition and Operations projected for 2007 RFP release planned for end of Calendar Year 2006

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 17 NOAA Budget ($ in Billions)

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 18 Current Environment Appropriations Reorganization a Surprise NOAA will now be considered by both the Senate and House subcommittees with: =$16.5B FY ‘06 budget request =$5.6B FY ’06 budget request =$3.6B FY ’06 budget request Although budget allocations should cover all of the requests, it is ultimately up to the Subcommittees to divvy up the money

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 19 Intersection of Public Sector & Private Sector Needs How do we get the “biggest bang for the buck”? Prioritize needs based on benefits Target resources to highest priorities Leverage existing activities and investments Build GEOSS/IEOS principles into planning of future systems

Questions?

Background Slides

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 22 Near Term Opportunity NOAA Target Architecture NOAA approved new Target Architecture Observation System features and functions Expressed in terms of relationships, interfaces, processes (including business) and constraints Includes Three Components: The baseline architecture describes the current features and functions of NOAA’s Observation System. The target architecture describes the desired features and functions of NOAA’s future Observation System. An iterative process is used to move from the baseline architecture to the target architecture.

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 23 Data Management Ongoing NOAA Efforts NOAA’s Integrated Global Observation & Data Management Plan—2005 Update Refined and updated observing system baseline architecture Performing gap analysis between observing requirements and observing capabilities Started investment analysis to determine efficient mix of observing systems to achieve requirements Established NOAA-wide data standards group Implementing Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) web-based data archive and distribution system for NOAA’s environmental data

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 24 Research Technology and NOAA in the 21st Century Sensors —Rugged and low cost Platforms —Mobile, unmanned aerial and autonomous undersea vehicles Information technology —Higher computer processing speed ; better data management and analysis tools Telecommunications —Global networks will link modeling centers with service providers and users These technologies will be exploited in developing an integrated Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) and holistic, high resolution Earth system models

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 25 Research NOAA Products and Services in 2025 Dramatic Improvements in Forecasting Extreme Events Highly Skillful Seasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions Improved Understanding of Physical, Chemical, Biological, and Societal Interactions National Suite of Air Quality Services Ocean Exploration for Humankind

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 26 Summary by Line Office $ in millions Line OfficeFY 06 Enacted FY 07 Current Program Net Program Increase FY 07 President’s Budget Percent Change (over Current Program) NOS$590.5$369.1$44.1$ % NMFS$811.5$656.6$81.1$ % OAR$379.6$310.4$38.2$ % NWS$848.2$838.4$43.5$ % NESDIS$952.2$916.4$117.4$1, % PS/Other$491.0$385.1$21.0$ % Total$3,911.5$3,338.8$345.4$3, % *Total includes financing adjustments

DRAFT: Forecasting NOAA’s Future – AMS Corporate Forum 27 Partnerships NOAA Partnership Policy “recognizes cooperation, not competition, with private sector and academic and research entities best serves the public interest.”