Accessing and using event data in the classroom Michael Hubenthal, IRIS Educational Specialist

IRIS Earthquake Browser Explore global, regional, and local seismicity Both recent and historic events Provides historic context for S-P activities Easy to use and based on Google maps Free online mapping tool!

Global Seismicity

Regional Seismicity

Local Seismicity

Explore Plate Boundaries

Export Data

Context to S-P

Exploring Forecasting & Prediction

Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past; Turn to you partner and discuss this statement 1)What does it mean? 2)Provide an example where it applies 3)Could this statement connect to earthquakes? How?

Components of Prediction When? Where How Big?

Steps: Select a region of the world that is of interest to you by “making your own map” Interrogate the EQ catalogue to determine the number of various sized events that occur annually for your region. (Start at Min 10 and Max 10 and use decreasing M0.5 intervals) Plot this information on the graph provided

Questions Do you see any patterns or trends in earthquake occurrence in your region? Are the numbers of earthquakes in the smallest and largest ranges consistent with the trends in the other regions? Can you think of any reasons why the trend is “flat” for small and also large magnitudes? What is the likelihood that an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater (which can cause severe damage) will occur in the next year in your region? How might this information be useful to society? Is there a risk for forecasting earthquake likelihood using a data set that only goes back to 1960?

Improving skills: organizing & interpreting data Latitude 12 o S to 12 o N Longitude 90 o E to 130 o E Dates 1/1/1960 to 1/1/2000

Explore Prediction/ Forecasting

Summary Accommodates student interests by allowing them to define the temporal & spatial limits of their study. Simple, easily acquired data set Explores the broad topics that lead to a general understanding of frequency and distribution of earthquakes Engages students in the process of science – Making observations –Collecting empirical data –Exploring the limitation of the data –Organization, graphing and analyzing the data –Developing logical arguments to support conclusions –Skeptical review of other students’ work

for human events ever resemble those of preceding times. This arises from the fact that they are produced by men who ever have been, and ever shall be, animated by the same passions, and thus they necessarily have the same results. Machiavelli ( May 3, 1469 – June 21, 1527) Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past;

Guiding Content Questions Where do earthquakes occur? How frequently do earthquakes occur? How frequently do various sized earthquakes occur? How does regional tectonics affect distribution and frequency? Can past history of Earthquake occurrence “predict” future occurrences?

Leather (1987) found that almost half of the British 11 to 14 year olds sampled thought that earthquakes occurred mainly in hot countries. This was later substantiated by a small study conducted by Sharpe et al. (1995). What do students know?

In the United States, wide ranging studies of over 1000 undergraduates and school children aged 5-18 found that 36% thought that Chicago was unlikely to be affected by an earthquake (Philips, 1991; Schoon, 1992).

Skills Emphasized Making observations Creating a semi-log graph Interpreting and identifying patterns in data. Drawing conclusions Prediction and hypothesis testing Writing a lab report or creating a poster