The Global Financial Crisis – Implications for Asia Dr Tony Tan Keng Yam Deputy Chairman & Executive Director, GIC 6 August 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

The Global Financial Crisis – Implications for Asia Dr Tony Tan Keng Yam Deputy Chairman & Executive Director, GIC 6 August 2009

Increasing signs of stabilization and recovery

Three Post Crisis Trends: Deleveraging Recessions with Financial Crises Take Longer to Normalize Source: IMF

Three Post Crisis Trends: Deflation… Source: IMF

…Then Inflation Pressure to go slow when withdrawing fiscal and monetary policy Deteriorating fiscal positions could put central banks under pressure Global labour supply will start to be less salutary Pressure from natural resources given EM demand Aging populations, uncertain productivity gains Source: IMF

Three Post Crisis Trends: Shift to EM Source: GIC

Asia has benefited from trade Source: CEIC, GS Global ECS Research

Asia has strong fundamentals and savings Source: CEIC

Asia’s banks are not leveraged Source: Nomura Research

Easy Liquidity Poses Risks to Asian Policymakers Source: Datastream

Risks and Challenges Further weakening of the US economy Weak US consumption fundamentals Increased protectionism

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