FUTURE INTELLIGENCE Dealing with uncertainty through scenario dynamics. Philippe Gabilliet, ESCP-EAP
« Looking at the human beings living their lives, I can confirm that their one and almost only preoccupation is to live their future in advance, » Jean Sutter
? FACES OF UNCERTAINTY GLOBAL PERSONAL SOCIAL MANAGERIAL MARKETS CORPORATE
CURRENT UNCERTAINTY Basic ingredients 1° - ACCELERATING CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT 2° - LOOSING LANDMARKS AND BLIND FLYING 3° - AN ERA OF COMPLEXITY 4° - REDISCOVERING INERTIA
UNCERTAINTY : the four levels (from : Courtney, Kirkland, Viguerie) A CLEAR ENOUGH FUTURE ALTERNATE FUTURES 1 2 3 A single forecast precise enough for determining strategy. A few discrete outcomes that define the future. TRUE AMBIGUITY A RANGE OF FUTURES ? A range of possible outcomes, but no natural scenarios No basis to forecast the future.
ACCESSING TO THE FUTURE Three ways * By the PAST => FORESEEING * By the FUTURE => PREDICTING * By the PRESENT => ANTICIPATING
Six ways to think about tomorrow FACING THE FUTURE Six ways to think about tomorrow THE OSTRICH THE FIREMAN THE GAMBLER THE INSURER THE SENTINEL THE EXPLORER
FACE THE FUTURE Three standpoints REACTIVITY The executive is ready to face changes he ignores all about PRE-ACTIVITY The executive is ready to face changes predictably enough PRO-ACTIVITY The executive behaves to produce changes that he wishes
THE « A » FORMULA I M ANTICI-PATION D
Four principles for action ANTICIPATING Four principles for action 1° - MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION AS A BET 2° - SEARCHING THE CAUSE IN THE FUTURE 3° - REHEARSING THE CRITICAL OPTIONS 4° - THINKING THE COMING LINKS
WHAT COULD YOU TELL US ABOUT YOURSELF WITHIN 10 YEARS FROM NOW ?
FUTURE LANDMARKS 2015 2005
« I am myself, and my circumstances...» M. Ortega y Gasset
FUTURE : Three grounds
FUTURE LANDMARKS 2015 2005
FOUR QUESTIONS What are the driving forces ? What is inevitable ? What do you feel is uncertain ? How about your main areas of free-will and basic options ?
FUTURE LANDMARKS 2015 2005
2015 2005 FUTURE LANDMARKS 5. S…………. 4. B………….. S………. 3. T…………… 6. O………… F………
FUTURE : my key decisions
FUTURE-ORIENTED EXECUTIVES The Fifth Question WHAT MAY HAPPEN ? (alternatives) WHAT MAY WE DO ? (options) WHAT WILL WE DO ? (strategy) HOW TO DO IT ? (planning)
FUTURE OF THE EXECUTIVE Some basic assumptions FREE DOM AND RISK SYSTEMATIC MOVES AND SHARED POWER WILL AND PROJECT INTUITION AND AWARENESS
« Looking into the future, is changing it already» Gaston Berger
LOOKING AT THE FUTURE The 6 tracks LOOKING FAR AHEAD LOOKING GLOBALLY LOOKING IN DEPTH LOOKING RATIONALLY LOOKING AT DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS LOOKING WITH OTHERS
WHAT IS A SCENARIO ? FUTURE IMAGE 1 2 3 CURRENT SYSTEM PATHWAY
SCENARIOS MATRIX (from Ilbury & Sunter) CONTROL CERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY ABSENCE OF CONTROL
FOUR COMON SENSE IDEAS ABOUT THE FUTURE IT WILL NOT BE PERFECT IT WILL BE THE PRODUCT OF AN ENVIRONMENT IT ALREADY EXISTS MANAGERS WHO GET READY FOR IT TODAY WIL BE THE BEST EQUIPPED TOMORROW
« Time scorns what is done in haste» Paul Morand