Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN Program) Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st century (KAKUSHIN Program) Secretariat of the Research Coordination Committee of the Program Frontier Research Center for Global Change Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Background of national strategy : 3 rd phase (FY2006-FY2010) of the Science and Technology Basic Plan  3 rd phase was launched (in April 2006) by the Cabinet 4 fields were prioritized  The same 4 fields were prioritized again for promotion as in the 2 nd phase besides basic sciences : - Life science; - Information and Communications; Environment - Environment ; and - Nanotechnology:  National core technology  National core technology studies/projects were also identified for overarching or cross-cutting themes.

Areas further prioritized in Environment Promotional prioritization was formulated by the Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)*:  Climate change research (including climate change mitigation technology),  Chemical substance risk and security management research,  Water/material cycle and watershed, ecosystem management research,  3R (reduce, reuse and recycle) technology research,  Biomass usage and utilization research * established within the Cabinet Office in 2001, chaired by the Prime Minister, with members of 6 Ministers concerned and 8 Experts

Climate Change Research categorized into: P1:P1: Integrated monitoring studies on global warming P2:P2: Climate change process studies P3:P3: Future projection of global warming and building of data base from climate change research outcomes P4:P4: Studies on global warming impact, risk assessment, and adaptation measures P5:P5: Studies on global scale water cycle variabilities P6:P6: Studies on mitigation policies Reliable climate change projection and impact assessment with better managed global Earth observation

Emerging Backgrounds from the IPCC/ AR4 outcomes unequivocal  “ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, ….” very likely  “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations 12.” 12 Consideration of remaining uncertainty is based on current methodologies.  “the largest source of uncertainty  “Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty.” stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs  “ Assessed upper ranges for temperature projections are larger than in the TAR (see Table SPM-2) mainly because the broader range of models now available suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs.” very likely  “It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.” ・・・・・・・・・・・・・ Strong concerns about global warming and its impacts Strong concerns about global warming and its impacts on natural disasters, in particular, from policy makers on natural disasters, in particular, from policy makers Increasing need of further reliable projection Increasing need of further reliable projection

 Better simulation of physical and biogeochemical processes sufficiently reflecting feedbacks Advancing climate modeling and projection Advancing climate modeling and projection  Addressing uncertainties in climate model projection Quantification and reduction of uncertainty  Impact assessment on natural disasters by extreme events through sufficiently high resolution projection Application of regional projection to natural Application of regional projection to natural disasters disasters Research needs and issues to be addressed

Advancing climate modeling and projection Program Theme (A) Advancing climate modeling and projection  Further reliable climate change projection (or prediction) for the 21st century, with a specific focus on extreme events such as heat waves, severe storms, tropical cyclones, storm surges, etc. in the near future (about 25 years ahead)  Projection to be regionally detail enough for relevantly applicable to impact assessment and adaptation studies.  Projection of global environment change including carbon cycle feedback  Developing more reliable and higher resolution climate models, through the sophisticated incorporation of physical and biogeochemical processes in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface, covering wider ranges from global to local urban scales.

Program Theme (B) Quantification and reduction of uncertainty  Inter-comparison of climate models in their performance in terms of incorporated processes.  Quantification of uncertainty among models through ensemble methodologies.  Data assimilation to be further improved for validation.  Comprehensive study for the reduction of uncertainty in projection.

Program Theme (C) Impact assessment on natural disasters      Analysis of the frequency and the strength of projected (or predicted) extreme events (tropical cyclones, heat waves, severe rainfalls, droughts, etc.) in the 21st century with special attention to near future ( ～ 25 years ahead)  Impact assessment study on natural disasters due to extreme events to contribute to natural disaster reduction policies

 A 5-year initiative (FY ) by the MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology ) launched in April 2007  The Program is to follow-up and develop the “Kyo-sei” Project (FY )  The Earth Simulator (to be updated) be further utilized.  The Program intends to contribute to the possible AR5. Program plan

Advancing Climate Modeling and Projection Impact assessment on natural disasters Quantification and Reduction of Uncertainty Close linkage Comprehensive Impact Assessment Projects by Ministry of Environment (MOE) Coordination Program structure

Participating groups and their studies  Long-term global environmental projection with an earth system model - Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) et. al  Near-term climate prediction with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM - Center for Climate System Research (CCSR) of the University of Tokyo et. al  Projection of changes in extremes in the future with very-high resolution atmospheric models - Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) et. al