A brief summary of Precautionary Approach work by SCRS [and some personal reflections] V.R. Restrepo Halifax, 3/2008

International Background UNCED (Rio, 1992) FAO Code of Conduct (1995) UNFSA (1995) RFMOs (NAFO, ICES ICCAT, mid-1990s)

SCRS Background ICCAT Tuna Symposium (Azores, June 10-18, 1996) SCRS (Madrid, October 20-24, 1997) ICCAT Ad Hoc WG on the Precautionary Approach (Miami, May 13-14, 1998) ICCAT Ad Hoc WG on the Precautionary Approach (Dublin, May 17-21, 1999) FAO Expert Consultation (Thailand, March 2000)

Steps Azores Symposium 1996 –How does PA apply to tuna? SCRS 1997 –Create ad hoc PA Working Group Ad Hoc WG Meeting 1 (Miami 1998) –Develop TofR –Questionnaire for all Species Group Chairs

TofR

Questionnaire

Steps Ad Hoc WG Meeting 2 (Dublin 1999) –Main meeting to fulfill TofR Summarize PA in other for a Summarize questionnaires on stocks Technical (gear) considerations Env. Biological considerations Data collection considerations BRPs –Targets, limits, control rules: SIMULATION Role of Scientists vs Role of Managers

BRPs Target = Fmsy (ICCAT convention) Limit = Fmsy (UNFSA App 2) Conflict?

BRPs Target = Fmsy (ICCAT convention) Limit = Fmsy (UNFSA App 2) Conflict? Maybe Yes, maybe No “In fact, there are very few examples where fishing mortality has been limited to FMSY over a significant period of time, even where MSY has been the stated management objective, and the Committee was not aware of any examples where stocks have collapsed despite fishing mortality being maintained near FMSY over a substantial period.”

BRPs Control Rules –Test performance with management strategy simulations

Roles ScientistsManagers 1.Collect, collate and evaluate statistical data bases. 2.Determine the status of stocks. 3.Calculate limit reference points and/or empirical measures that might be used for proxies, associated probabilities, and performance indicators under selected management strategies. 4.Describe and characterize uncertainty associated with current and projected stock status with respect to reference points or their proxies. Provide constraints for recovery time horizons. 5.Scientific evaluation of management options proposed by the Commission. 1.Provide procedures for maintaining data reporting and for conducting research, including the infrastructure to collect data from developing countries. 2.Specify management objectives, select target reference points, and set limit reference points. 3.Specify management strategies (courses of actions) for biomass/fishing mortality zones. 4.Specify time horizons for stock rebuilding and for fishing mortality adjustments to ensure stock recovery and/or avoid stock collapse. 5.Specify acceptable levels of risk to be used in evaluating possible consequences of management actions.

Steps Commission 1999 (Rio) –Bring scientists and managers together at future meeting –Keep doing simulation work –Bring in environmental and social issues –Ad hoc WG should meet again in 2000

Steps FAO Expert Consultation (Phuket, 2000) RESEARCH IMPLICATIONS OF ADOPTING THE PRECAUTIONARY APPROACH TO MANAGEMENT OF TUNA FISHERIES –Implications for data collection and research; relationship between uncertainty, risk, targets, limits Commission (Marrakech, 2000) –Good idea to do simulation work –Consider scientist-manager get together at next Comm meeting Allocation ; BFT

Steps Commission (2001 Murcia, Spain) –SCRS Chair: we await instructions –Meeting did not end (subsequently, PA proposals by Canada) (here we are) Allocation ; BFT

A few personal thoughts on targets and limits and bluefin Fmsy is a target (ICCAT Convention); Is it also a limit (UNFSA)?

Fmsy a constant or a control rule?

Constant catch control rules

Constant Catch and Fmsy

BFT rebuilding with constant catch

BFT overfishing with constant catch

Precision

2100 t

Summary Our assessments are not precise enough to tell a good wave from a rip tide A constant catch rebuilding strategy is more effective when it involves a large initial reduction in yield On the other hand, constant catch management is attractive in terms of stability. Can we advise on a compromise approach?