The latest results of verification over Poland Katarzyna Starosta Joanna Linkowska COSMO General Meeting, Cracow September 2008 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management

PLAN Introduction Data and method Verification of continuous parameters Verification of precipitation Common plot Versus Future plans

Work Report in WG 5 in Poland Verification of surface parameters and precipitation using 56 SYNOP stations Verification of precipitation using 308 rain gauges Common plots Data: June May 2008 Case study VERSUS – compilation package

METHODS Run 00 UTC – model 14 km ME and RMSE for continuous parameters: T2m,TD2m, MSLP, Wspeed Period monthly and seasonally (JJA, SON, DJF, MAM) Precipitation 6h and 12h (thresholds 0.2, 2, 5,10), 24h (thresholds 0.2, 2,10, 20 mm), scores: FBI, POD, FAR, ETS Precipitation 24h (06-06) – thresholds 0.5, 1, 2.5, 5, 10, 25, 30, scores: FBI, POD, PON, FAR, TSS, HSS, ETS

Domain used at IMGW

RMSE, ME, June 2007-May 2008 Temperature, Dew point temperature 2m Temperature - ME Winter DJF below zero Summer JJA, Spring MAM above zero Autumn SON round about zero  2m Temperature – RMSE Summer and Spring diurnal cycle, max at noon (FCT 12,36h) minimum at night (FCT 6,30h) Winter, Autumn no explicit diurnal cycle 2m Dew point temperature – ME Summer, Spring below zero Winter, Autumn round about zero 2m Dew point temperature – RMSE Summer and Spring diurnal cycle, max at noon (FCT 12,36h) minimum at night (FCT 6,30h) Winter, Autumn no explicit diurnal cycle

RMSE, ME, June 2007-May 2008 Sea level pressure, Wind speed  Sea level pressure – ME Increase with forecast time. Positive in winter, near zero or negative in summer, spring and autumn  Sea level pressure – RMSE Increase with forecast time. The highest at winter (above 3) and smallest at summer.  Wind speed – ME Winter below zero at noon, above zero at night. Summer and autumn above zero.  Wind speed – RMSE Increase with forecast time. Similar for all seasons.

12h forecast, April 2008, Warsaw RMSE=2.57 ME=0.16 RMSE=3.17 ME=2.33 RMSE=1.83 ME=0.15 RMSE=1.82 ME=-0.73

FBI, 6,12, 24h precipitation July 2007-May 2008

POD-FAR, 6h precipitation, seasonal

POD-FAR, 12h precipitation, seasonal

POD-FAR, 24h precipitation, seasonal

POD-FAR, FBI, 24h precipitation, threshold 0.5, year 2007

Indices for 24h precipitation,April 2008

Monthly precipitation, model, stations, April 2008 Minimum: 0 25%-tile: 36.2 Median: %-tile: 66 Maximum: Minimum: %-tile: Median: %-tile: Maximum:

Monthly precipitation, model, stations, January 2008 Minimum: 0 25%-tile: 36 Median: %-tile: 61.3 Maximum: 157 Minimum: %-tile: Median: %-tile: Maximum:

Conclusions The seasonal variation for the scores is observed. The diurnal cycle for 2m temperature and 2m dew point temperature is observed. The RMSE and ME increase with the forecast time for sea level pressure and 10 m wind speed. The verification of 6h accumulated precipitation is not satisfactory. Overprediction is observed for 12h and 24h accumulated precipitation for threshold 0.2 mm and underprediction for higher thresholds of precipitations.

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